Epic Greed & Euphoria Lead to a Hedge Fund Blow Up
The new week begins with the Dow Industrials and S&P 500 at all-time highs. The S&P 400 and Russell 2000 should follow suit over the next few weeks. I am going to reserve judgement on the NASDAQ 100 for the time being as it remains at a critical short-term juncture. As I mentioned in yesterday’s email, we saw some “curious” behavior during the final hour of trading on Friday as the stock market went from sleepy to surging. It certainly […]
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Date: March 29, 2021
Nice Reversal But…
We saw a semi-impressive turnaround on Thursday led by the small and mid caps stocks. Interestingly, bond yields did not fall hard which is why leadership continued to come from the cyclical areas like financials, energy, materials and industrials, those same sectors I have been touting all year. I do like potential lows to be hammered in on Thursday instead of Friday, but the bulls should get a move on sooner than later. Negative seasonal trends begin to mitigate, but […]
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Date: March 26, 2021
Watching Technology Closely
Some days, I even surprise myself. This morning, I wrote most of my blog post, thought I uploaded it and then went about my day. As I was going through my post-market day wrap up, I noticed it sitting in the draft folder. Nice work Paul! Anyway, following up on my comments from Monday, this week was setting up to be down and the bears are trying hard to grab the upper hand. Without having the major stock market indices […]
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Date: March 24, 2021
They Don’t Make It Easy
Friday was another in what has become a long line of dichotomous days where the 5 major stock market indices were not all in sync. To add confusion on to that was how each of the indices were behaving over the previous two days. While Fridays are always tough days to glean much, especially into the close ahead of a weekend, it looked like Monday could set up for further downside although the Russell 2000 small caps looked the best […]
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Date: March 22, 2021
Crowded Trade Could See Quick & Sharp Reversal
Stocks continue to pull back from their recent all-time highs earlier this week. That is, except for the NASDAQ 100 which has been mired in a correction since mid-February as soaring bond yields have come at the expense of tech. I will say this; unless the NASDAQ 100 quickly closes above this week’s high point, it should be headed for new 2021 lows. The other major indices are behaving well and should see fresh all-time highs next month. It seems […]
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Date: March 19, 2021
The Single Most Important Fed Day Ever – Phooey
The stock market model for today is plus or minus 0.50% until 2pm and then a bigger move. However, with the S&P 500 at new highs this week, the usual ammunition for a big rally is gone. With pre-market indicating a lower open, the model is to buy anything lower than -0.50% and reduce or eliminate at 2pm. Here we go again. All the hyperbole about the single most important Fed meeting ever has started yet again. The deal is […]
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Date: March 17, 2021
Dow Crashes 3000 Points – 3rd Worst Percent Day on Record
First, I want to quickly thank so many of you who emailed suggestions and actionable info to help me secure a vaccine. A week ago, after having to put down one of our family pets, my phone rang at 3:55pm with an offer to vaccinate me if I could be at CVS in New Haven in 20 minutes. Suffice it to say, a law or two may have been breached. As I walked in, I received another call with a […]
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Date: March 16, 2021
The Unloved Become Winners
Last year, the theme was mega cap technology at the expense of everything else. Since my “pound the table buy bottom” October 30th, we have had a complete reversal of fortunes. Small caps have led the indices. Cyclicals like banks, energy, industrials, transports and materials finally sprung to life. Bonds became as hated as they were loved. It’s really quite fascinating how the markets value things differently in different climates. Investors who get married to a particular theme or stock […]
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Date: March 15, 2021
Yields Popping Again – More Classic Dichotomy
Stocks look to open lower to end the week as the 10-Year Note yield is surging again. That will put pressure on growth and technology to the benefit of my favorite cyclical groups like banks, energy, industrials and materials. Since the NASDAQ 100 peaked on February 16, there has only been one single back to back days of gains. More than anything else, that tells you how every rally is being aggressively sold. However, look at small and mid cap […]
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Date: March 12, 2021
Fox Business TODAY, The 10-Year Boogeyman & Dow 33,000
I am excited to join my friend, Charles Payne, on Fox Business’ Making Money today at 2:45pm today (Thursday) discussing SPACs and the epic greed and euphoria in the financial markets. The other day, I joined my friend, Tim Lammers, on Fox61’s Morning News to discuss my recently published e-book. Tim is the consummate pro and I really enjoyed sharing tips and strategies that anyone can follow as they plan for retirement. In fact, I am going to do a […]
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Date: March 11, 2021
