Seasonal Tailwind This Week
Stocks begin the holiday-shortened Thanksgiving week with an upside reversal last Thursday and a little bit of follow through on Friday. Stocks continue the process of repairing the internal damage done by the October correction before assaulting Dow 27,000 in the New Year. However, I want to be clear; at this point I do not have strong conviction that last week’s reversal is the final nail in the market’s bottom. I can still see two diverging paths to new highs […]
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Date: November 19, 2018
Bulls Making a Stand
Thursday saw upside reversals in all of the major indices which means that stocks opened lower, traded a little lower and then rocketed higher into the close. That should comfort the bulls, at least into next week as a solid seasonal tailwind blows into the holiday. Is it possible that we just saw the final low on Thursday? Sure. It’s POSSIBLE. I am not pounding the table with high conviction like I would or will if stocks revisit the lows […]
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Date: November 16, 2018
THE Bottom Right Now or Soon. ALL Paths Lead to Dow 27,000
Last week, I wrote about the chart below, Battle Lines Drawn, which had one more horizontal, blue line at the time. That was exceeded on the upside, so I removed it. We are left with the upper blue line that once exceeded and closed above will be late confirmation that the bottom is in and new highs are on the way. That’s going to take some time to develop. Stocks are at the first blue line which creates an opportunity. […]
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Date: November 14, 2018
Bulls on Shaky Ground Today
After a fast and furious rally by the bulls, we saw a little change on Friday as “too far, too fast” became my theme. I thought the best case would be for a pause to refresh or some backing and filling. That appears to be the case as the new week begins. I am very keenly watching for the market’s reaction if and when it gives back all of last Wednesday’s huge, post-election gains. That should speak volumes about the […]
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Date: November 12, 2018
Pause to Refresh
I had such a great time joining the good folks at Yahoo Finance on Market Movers yesterday morning, especially since I stayed put in my office and joined via Skype. I didn’t think it was possible to look worse than I do on TV without makeup, but yes, I got scared watching the replay! After stocks huge sure on Wednesday, I thought that the market would pause to digest or refresh, perhaps back and fill. The Dow had been leading, […]
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Date: November 9, 2018
Not So Special Fed Day Update. Recession & Bear Market
Normally, I send out a very detailed update when the Federal Reserve concludes their every 6 week meeting. Given the volume of updates I have published lately, I am sure most of you have a little Paul Schatz fatigue. So for someone not known for brevity as my colleague,Renee, says all the time, I am going to keep this short and to the point and then work on a very important Canaries in the Coal Mine. The Fed concludes their […]
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Date: November 8, 2018
Election Model Right Again!
Last night, I flew back from one of the best conferences I have ever been to in Chicago for the National Association of Active Investment Managers. Besides offering my outlook on many asset classes and themes for 2019, I sat through some really great presentations as well as networked with some of my closest industry friends and new acquaintances. So many bright and talented people. Some really good deep dish pizza at Gino’s East and tasty craft beer on tap. […]
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Date: November 7, 2018
***Special Election Update***
Greetings from 34,000 feet as I head to Chicago for a quick two day trip to attend the National Association of Active Investment Managers’ conference where I will be speaking about my preliminary forecast for 2019 as well as rubbing elbows with some of the industry’s brightest and most forward thinking minds. It’s an association I have been involved with since 1990 and their two conferences are always a highlight of my year. Election Day is here again. Boy, was […]
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Date: November 6, 2018
Battle Lines Drawn
The bears made their first stand of the nascent rally on Friday as very early strength was immediately sold. The best thing about this is that we now have a few common sense lines in the sand drawn to determine short-term direction. You can see below that the most recent price is smack in the middle of the four lines. A CLOSE above or below the two closest lines to price will likely create a quick and sharp move in […]
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Date: November 5, 2018
Stocks Peaking on Amazing Jobs Report
What a volatile, interesting and fun week it has been. I am about ready for some time to myself although I do board a flight on Sunday afternoon for a quick trip to Chicago. Deep dish pizza, here I come! My plan coming in on Friday was to look for another big up day for the bulls and then begin to take some risk off the table, book profits or however you like to call reducing exposure to stocks. It […]
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Date: November 2, 2018
