Like Watching Paint Dry
Unlike the summers of 2011, 2010, 2009, 2008, 2007 and 2006, the summer of 2012 has been very, very quiet. Volatility is at an historically low level. Volatility contraction leads to expansion and vice-versa. At some point, we are going to see a spike in volatility and that will shock the system. Later this week, Ben Bernanke will make his annual speech from the Fed’s retreat in Jackson Hole WY on Friday at 10:00am. While everyone will be on the […]
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Date: September 4, 2012
The Bulls Powering to New 2012 Highs
New Street$marts is out chock full of tidbits with Paul Ryan, the Fed, ECB and stocks on their way to new 2012 highs! http://www.investfortomorrow.com/newsletter/CurrentStreet$marts20120816.pdf
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Date: August 20, 2012
Bulls Giving it the College Try
Following up from the Street$marts issue I published today (link to follow here on Friday), the bulls are stepping up here on the Dow, S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100, closing the day within striking distance of new highs for 2012. I expect that to occur over the coming days. Once that is achieved, I do not anticipate a blow off to the upside. Rather, I think the stock market will be within a few percent of peaking. Flies in the ointment […]
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Date: August 16, 2012
Quietly Strong Selling Wave
Stocks have quietly seen a fairly strong selling wave over the past eight days. Coincidentally (or not), that has been ever since the European Union announced their latest rescue attempt from European Stability Mechanism. After that one huge rally day, stocks have not behaved well and after today (Thursday), they have given back the entire rally. From my seat, the stock market is at an interesting juncture here. I wouldn’t say “critical”, but the bulls need to step up here […]
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Date: July 12, 2012
3 Indicators That Can Tell You the Market’s Next Move
On Monday, I was in the city spending some time with my friends at Yahoo Finance. As always, I thank them for their hospitality and Jeff Macke for the engaging conversation. http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout/3-indicators-tell-market-next-move-115923205.html With the volume and velocity of information out there, trying to get a read on the stock market is like attempting to get a sip of water from a firehose. Thankfully Paul Schatz of Heritage Capital has three ways to check the health of the market and durability […]
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Date: July 5, 2012
Summer Rally, Pre-Election Sell-Off
http://www.newsmax.com/StreetTalk/Heritage-Capital-stock-rally/2012/06/27/id/443591 The stock market will experience a summer rally, followed by a sell-off in the fall right before the election, Paul Schatz, chief investment officer of Heritage Capital LLC, told Yahoo. Schatz said the first half of the year had a few unique twists, but it has been fairly typical for election-year market indices. “It’s been an interesting first half,” he said. “We were vertical for a while and then we gave almost all of it back and now we’re […]
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Date: June 29, 2012
It’s All about Greece
Here is the clip from my segment on CNBC’s Closing Bell on June 15. As is usually the case, my view is definitely the contrarian view and Bill certainly challenged me! Take a look… http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000096597&play=1
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Date: June 27, 2012
Fed Day is Here
Today is Fed day with split announcements. At 12:30pm, the official announcment and statement come out and then Ben Bernanke will hold his press conference at 2:15pm. The Fed is not going to move rates. They will likely downgrade their view of the economy. So far in 2012, every single Fed statement day has been a big day for the bulls. The market is anticipating some extension of stimulus or outright quantitative easing (creating money to buy securities, likely in […]
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Date: June 20, 2012
CNBC’s Closing Bell at 3:10pm June 15
I am going to be on CNBC’s Closing Bell with Maria and Bill at 3:10pm today discussing Sunday’s election in Greece and the potential for a major market reaction next week. Here are some quick, off the cuff thoughts: 1 – Markets seem very comfortable rallying into the event, which makes me a bit uncomfortable. I would much prefer to see weakness and worry ahead of a geopolitical event to wash out the weak handed holders and then reverse after […]
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Date: June 15, 2012
The Week Ahead
With earnings season over and the monthly jobs report behind us, markets will likely focus on Europe and the outcome of ObamaCare before the Supreme Court which is due out this month on a Monday. Heading in to this week, the bulls have the upper hand after putting in at least a trading low last Monday. You can read the details in Street$marts, which is also posted http://www.investfortomorrow.com/newsletter/CurrentStreet$marts20120605.pdf. With the Dow at 12,550, we could see 12,750 – 13,000 this […]
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Date: June 11, 2012
