***SPECIAL Fed Update – It Doesn’t Get Much Better Than This***
Stock Market Behavior Models for the Day As with every Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement day, there is a model for the stock market to follow pre and post announcement. Certain environments have very strong tendencies while others do not. Over the past few meetings, many of the strongest trends were muted but today is at least a little different. As with most statement days, the model for the day calls for stocks to return plus or minus 0.50% […]
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Date: August 1, 2018
***SPECIAL Fed Update – Continued Arrogance & Pomposity Spells Recession***
Stock Market Behavior Models for the Day As with every Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement day, there is a model for the stock market to follow pre and post announcement. Certain environments have very strong tendencies while others do not. Over the past few meetings, many of the strongest trends were muted and today is no different. As with most statement days, the model for the day calls for stocks to return plus or minus 0.50% until 2:00 PM. […]
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Date: June 13, 2018
***SPECIAL Fed Update – Fed’s Arrogance & Pomposity Leading to Recession Watch***
Stock Market Behavior Models for the Day As with every Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement day, there is a model for the stock market to follow pre and post announcement. Certain environments have very strong tendencies while others do not. Over the past few meetings, many of the strongest trends were muted. As with most statement days, the model for the day calls for stocks to return plus or minus 0.50% until 2:00 PM. There is a 90% chance […]
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Date: May 2, 2018
***SPECIAL Fed Update – Rates Are Going Up Again & Then Some***
Stock Market Behavior Models for the Day As with every Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement day, there is a model for the stock market to follow pre and post announcement. Certain environments have very strong tendencies while others do not. Over the past few meetings, many of the strongest trends muted although the system that said to sell on the close of the meeting hit a home run. The S&P immediately crashed from 2824 to 2645 or 6% during […]
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Date: March 21, 2018
And Stocks Go Down AGAIN
More than a week ago, I started discussing the idea that a trading range was setting in with modestly lower and higher prices as the range. For a few session, stocks blew right past that idea. Before today, the stock market had very, very quietly pulled back for four sessions without much fanfare except for some weak internal readings. That all changed as a solid employment report with finally some real wage growth further spooked the bond market, sending yields […]
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Date: February 2, 2018
Fed Statement Day Disappoints. Defensive Groups Lead.
Fed statement day was certainly atypical and a volatile affair. Early strength was sold into which accelerated after the 2pm announcement. And Just when it looked like the bears would turn the day into a rout, the 3pm bell rung and the bulls came roaring back to life. What was most interesting was that while the Fed didn’t say much in their statement and actually was slightly more positive on the economy, it was the defensive groups, like REITs and […]
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Date: February 1, 2018
Fed’s Arrogance Will Lead to Disaster for Economy
Stock Market Behavior Models for the Day As with every Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement day, there is a model for the stock market to follow pre and post announcement. Certain environments have very strong tendencies while others do not. Over the past few meetings, many of the strongest trends immediately before and after were muted except for a modest post FOMC trend last meeting which called for mild weakness the very next day. The S&P 500 lost 10 […]
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Date: January 31, 2018
Bulls Remain In Charge
Stocks came back from the semi-holiday weekend in good spirits, at least for the morning. There was no follow through though as a post-Thanksgiving hangover is usually the theme for the first day or two of the new week. We still have a variety of crosscurrents over the very, very short-term, but looking out one to three months, the picture is positive. As you know, it’s very difficult to see an end of year decline, especially when the year has […]
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Date: November 28, 2017
