Index Canaries Breathing Nicely
It has a been long while since I last updated the Canaries in the Coal Mine, a semi-regular piece which has a very long-term focus on the health of the bull market. The analysis is only relevant at or near new bull market highs as I look for divergences in the major stock market indices, sectors and two other indicators. While helpful, it does not insulate bull markets from corrections; it just says that the final high hasn’t been made […]
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Date: April 10, 2017
Is it Crash Helmet Time???
For the past three weeks, my message has been one of a little short-term concern against the backdrop of much higher prices to follow. That remains unchanged. Market sentiment had become frothy, meaning that too many people had become too confident in the stock market. We saw that in both the individual investor and newsletter writer sentiment surveys. Options traders were betting overwhelmingly on higher prices over the short-term. Corporate insiders were selling much more than they were buying. Traders […]
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Date: March 11, 2015
Sector Canaries Singing but Quietly
With the major stock market indices all in good shape beyond the short-term pullback, let’s take a look at the key sectors and two other important canaries. The banks are first and they remain mired in a trading range for the past year. Before the last bear market, banks peaked a good nine months before the major indices did. In the Dotcom bear market, banks topped a full 18 months before the overall market did. As a bull, it would […]
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Date: March 10, 2015
Canaries in the Major Indices Singing Loudly
With stocks scoring new highs lately, it’s a good time to pay a visit to the canaries in the coal mine and see if we have any dead ones. For newer readers, Canaries in the Coal Mine is a semi-regular piece when stocks are near fresh highs or lows to signal a potential major trend change or warning sign. This analysis is not good at identifying routine and regular corrections or intermediate-term rallies. In this first piece, we are going […]
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Date: March 9, 2015
Canaries Quiet
Thanks to my friend and business colleague/partner Dave Moenning (stateofthemarkets.com) for the canary pic. It’s been a while since I last updated this column, but it’s not because I am lazy! There simply haven’t been enough changes in the data to warrant an update. The rally through year-end was very powerful and almost all areas we in gear to the upside. And even today, while there may be a few warnings, we don’t have bull market ending conditions in place. […]
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Date: February 1, 2014
