THE Bottom Right Now or Soon. ALL Paths Lead to Dow 27,000
Last week, I wrote about the chart below, Battle Lines Drawn, which had one more horizontal, blue line at the time. That was exceeded on the upside, so I removed it. We are left with the upper blue line that once exceeded and closed above will be late confirmation that the bottom is in and new highs are on the way. That’s going to take some time to develop. Stocks are at the first blue line which creates an opportunity. […]
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Date: November 14, 2018
Bulls on Shaky Ground Today
After a fast and furious rally by the bulls, we saw a little change on Friday as “too far, too fast” became my theme. I thought the best case would be for a pause to refresh or some backing and filling. That appears to be the case as the new week begins. I am very keenly watching for the market’s reaction if and when it gives back all of last Wednesday’s huge, post-election gains. That should speak volumes about the […]
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Date: November 12, 2018
Pause to Refresh
I had such a great time joining the good folks at Yahoo Finance on Market Movers yesterday morning, especially since I stayed put in my office and joined via Skype. I didn’t think it was possible to look worse than I do on TV without makeup, but yes, I got scared watching the replay! After stocks huge sure on Wednesday, I thought that the market would pause to digest or refresh, perhaps back and fill. The Dow had been leading, […]
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Date: November 9, 2018
Battle Lines Drawn
The bears made their first stand of the nascent rally on Friday as very early strength was immediately sold. The best thing about this is that we now have a few common sense lines in the sand drawn to determine short-term direction. You can see below that the most recent price is smack in the middle of the four lines. A CLOSE above or below the two closest lines to price will likely create a quick and sharp move in […]
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Date: November 5, 2018
Stocks Peaking on Amazing Jobs Report
What a volatile, interesting and fun week it has been. I am about ready for some time to myself although I do board a flight on Sunday afternoon for a quick trip to Chicago. Deep dish pizza, here I come! My plan coming in on Friday was to look for another big up day for the bulls and then begin to take some risk off the table, book profits or however you like to call reducing exposure to stocks. It […]
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Date: November 2, 2018
Calling THE Bottom and the Bear Market that Lies Ahead
Before I dive in headfirst I want to start by saying that there are more bold and brash comments in this update, especially after the charts, than any piece I have written in a very long time. None of it is political. Here is a taste and I respectfully ask you to read this update to the end. It spells out some very detailed scenarios for the bull market and impending bear market. Let me state this very emphatically. If […]
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Date: November 1, 2018
Why Have Stocks Been Going Down
This correction has been very fast and furious. I talked about it yesterday and how downside momentum was beginning to wane. The old saying that stocks take the stairs to the tops and the elevator to the bottom definitely rings true here. This decline has been relentless with strong wave after strong wave of selling. I can spend a lot of time debating why stocks have declined, but does it really matter? The stock market usually discounts economic activity 6-9 […]
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Date: October 31, 2018
Early Signs of Waning Downside Momentum
The selling has been relentless. It’s come in strong waves with some of the most powerful moves in many years. If you watch the intra day “tick” indicator which essentially tells you the cumulative price move for all stocks on the NYSE, up or down, there have been two massive and historic waves where the tick exceeded -1600. That shows indiscriminate selling and it’s not mom and pop hitting the sell button. The reasons are not important and we never […]
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Date: October 30, 2018
Squawk Box, Yahoo Finance & Correction Update
I started out my day with a visit to CNBC’s Squawk Box at 6:15am. I should have the link to post later today. I will be with the good folks at Yahoo Finance on Midday Movers either right at 11:30am or noon, live from Heritage Capital’s global headquarters via Skype. There’s an inside joke in there which I am always willing to share in person. As you know from all of my posts, markets have been very volatile and even […]
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Date: October 29, 2018
Crash Scenario Avoided BUT Where is THE Bottom???
Well folks, it’s been quite a week so far. After stocks tried to hammer in a low on October 11th there was a rally as I expected. In fact, that October day was the first day our shorter-term investment models started turning positive with the Dow at 25,000 after having been negative since the all-time high peak on October 3rd. As I wrote at that time, I didn’t think 25,000 was going to be the ultimate bottom, but the majority […]
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Date: October 25, 2018
