Lots of Concerns Abound
For the past 5 weeks I have often written about the elusive stock market pullback and the reasons why we shouldn’t be surprised to see it occur. We had seasonal headwinds post-September. We had strength into earnings season. We had overly bullish sentiment. Nothing really mattered for more than a day. And just because stocks are seeing some weakness here, I am not beating my chest with “I told ya so”. Being early still equals being wrong. Over the past […]
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Date: November 10, 2017
New Highs Abound But a Few Cracks Developing
Suffice to say that the bulls have basically stampeded any and all attempts to take stocks lower since mid-August. However, for most of that period, the market’s foundation was rock solid and bears were just fighting against strong momentum. Recently, that has changed. Because I have been traveling since late last week and a bit on the sick side, I haven’t spent the time to create the charts to support my point. The Dow, S&P 500, S&P 400 and NASDAQ […]
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Date: November 6, 2017
The Next Fed Chairman & Post Fed Market Decline
Trump to Announce Fed Choice This Afternoon Love him or hate him, Donald Trump certainly is not behaving like his predecessors when it comes to most things, but definitely not the selection of the most powerful banker on earth. During the campaign, Trump harshly and unfairly criticized Janet Yellen for keeping interest rates too low and creating a “fake stock market”. That was until he became president and miraculously embraced low rates and the surging stock market as a referendum […]
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Date: November 2, 2017
***Special Fed Day Alert. No Rate Hike. No Surprises***
Behavior Models for the Day As with every Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement day, there is a model for the stock market to follow pre and post announcement. Certain environments have very strong tendencies while others do not. Eight meetings ago was one of the rare times where the models strongly called for a rally on statement day which was correct as well as a decline a few days later which was also correct. Today, as with most statement […]
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Date: November 1, 2017
Q3 GDP Sees Another Resurgence & Energy Looking Sweet Again
On Friday, the government released a first look at Q3 GDP which I had been looking in the 3% range before the hurricanes hit. It wouldn’t have surprised me if that number was a quarter to half point lower. However, even with the hurricanes, the resilient U.S. economy still grew by 3%. All year, I have written about the economy accelerating to the upside in Q2 and Q3 with the election as the catalyst. Way too many people underestimated the […]
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Date: October 30, 2017
Pullback in Motion. Dow by Itself.
The Dow has now seen three straight days of negative behavior but the index remains a whisker from new highs. The big picture reveals some almost precedent setting behavior in the Dow as more stocks are closing lower than higher as the Dow was hitting all-time highs. That’s not your typical sign of strength. The S&P 500 and S&P 400 are a little weaker with the Russell 2000 and NASDAQ 100 a little more so. The pullback I have been […]
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Date: October 26, 2017
Stocks Continue to Creep But Best Opp for Pullback is Now
It’s really the same old story as we begin the new week and the final full week of October. The intermediate and long-term continue to look strong as they have for days, weeks, months and quarters. Nothing has changed. The short-term is the time frame where it’s neutral at best. I have said all month that the bulls need a little rest, but they haven’t seemed to care. Today, as I look at the five major stock market indices, the […]
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Date: October 23, 2017
Bulls Running Like Pamplona
This is looking more and more the running of the bulls in Pamplona. They just stampede anyone and everyone in their way. After the two strongly positive seasonal trends ended after the first week of October, there was sufficient evidence that stocks were due for a pause to refresh or modest, single digit pullback. That’s what I was looking for. Nothing big. Nothing significant. Nothing really actionable. Just your garden variety reset. Stocks came out of the gate to the […]
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Date: October 20, 2017
Anatomy of The Stock Market Crashes of 1929 & 1987. Can It Happen Today?
Today is the 30th anniversary of the stock crash of 1987. All week long there has been a stream of recountings, anecdotes and comparisons to today’s market. While I love nostalgia as much as anyone, there are almost no valid comparisons to 1987 and it’s pretty much a waste of time to take that argument. Writers, analysts and investors who insist that stocks are about to crash like 1987 are either perma-bears who have been wrong for the past 8 […]
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Date: October 19, 2017
Banks & Transports Still Tired. Modest Pullback Here.
Last Friday, I discussed what appeared to be tired behavior in the banks as they were selling off on good earnings news after rallying sharply into earnings season. Citigroup and JP Morgan were the examples. This morning, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley beat earnings expectations, yet reaction has been muted with the former opening sharply higher and then selling off while the latter is hanging tight. I would not be surprised to see Morgan Stanley buck the trend in the […]
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Date: October 17, 2017
