Bears Stepped It Up
For most of September, I discussed the very negative seasonal period that ended on September 30. Remember, poor seasonals with strongly negative short-term trends from the Fed and options expiration usually just provide a headwind or accelerant to a market move already in place. The second half of September was certainly a poor showing for the bulls, which is part of the reason October began so weak. For those who watch the charts, the Dow and S&P 500 visited their […]
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Date: October 2, 2014
Alibaba, Twitter and Facebook Oh My!
“Hot” IPOs like Alibaba, Twitter and Facebook are usually very emotional, much anticipated and huge financial media events. As I have discussed over and over, emotion in investing can have a very detrimental impact on your portfolio! I went back and found similar, much anticipated, “hot” IPOs to show you what transpired over the coming few months. The results should not be surprising. Twitter really bucked the trend over the past few years. While it initially dropped 20% from its […]
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Date: September 24, 2014
Alibaba… No Bubble to Me
With the Fed meeting, press conference and Scotland out of the way, markets turned to Alibaba’s initial public offering (IPO) to close a very busy week last Friday. Looking at possibly a record $20+ billion IPO, the money had to come from somewhere. And judging by tech stocks behavior over the prior week or so, it certainly looked like institutional investors were paring back holdings to pay for Alibaba. The hugely anticipated IPO priced at $68 and promptly opened at […]
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Date: September 23, 2014
Beware of Most Negative Seasonals of the Year
For the past three weeks I have written about the need for a short-term pullback in stocks. I have been and remain positive on the intermediate and long-term view for the stock market. Remember, pullbacks can come by stocks going sideways for a period of time or by price declining enough to entice buyers back in. In the major indices we saw a split pullback with the Dow, S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 going sideways while the S&P 400 and […]
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Date: September 22, 2014
Textbook Consolidation Ends
Late last month, I wrote a piece concluding that stocks looked a bit tired at all time highs. Nothing terribly damaging, but they were in need of some rest. Routine, normal and healthy pullbacks can come in different forms. The easiest way for stocks to digest is to decline 2-5% fairly quickly, while another way is to see sideways movement with a slightly downward tilt for a period of weeks. The Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 all saw […]
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Date: September 19, 2014
Headwinds Abound This Week
Almost all markets finished on a sour note last week and that spilled over to begin the new week. While I have written about stocks needing a short-term breather, I was surprised that treasury bonds could not get a lift as stocks weakened. In fact, both stocks and bonds peaked the same week, but bonds sold off more significantly, something that is unusual. The major stock market indices certainly look like they want at least a little rally, but the […]
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Date: September 16, 2014
More Airstrikes Announced… Markets Don’t Care
Last night, President Obama announced an expansion of the campaign against ISIS with targeted airstrikes in Syria. And as we have seen so many times over the past 10 years, the financial markets responded with a big yawn as if to say that, financially, nobody really cares. Are investors being complacent or realistic? My theory on geopolitical news is twofold. First, reaction depends on how solid a footing the markets are on. Cherry picking with the benefit of hindsight, in […]
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Date: September 11, 2014
Don’t Fall Asleep
Over the past few weeks I have written that stocks seem “tired” or “in need of a pullback or consolidation.” Remember, stock market digestion can occur two different ways; one by price declining 2-5% or price simply moves sideways for an extended period. Right now, it looks like we are getting the latter as the S&P 500 has essentially gone nowhere for more than two weeks. While all this boredom was occurring, we had a weak employment report, Russia/Ukraine cease […]
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Date: September 8, 2014
Beware the Ominous September… or not
Each year at this time, we hear the pundits roll out the ominous stats regarding the stock market’s performance for September. “It’s the worst month of the year.” “Be careful.” “Do some selling.” Those sound an awful lot like “Sell in May and Go Away.” The thing about compiling market stats is that over decades and decades the averages tend to really smooth out. Additionally, much depends on when you begin and end your study. Further, if you add enough […]
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Date: September 2, 2014
Happy Labor Day!
As we say goodbye to the unofficial end of summer, this Labor Day remember those who helped build our great country and celebrate the achievements of the American workforce. Wishing you a safe and enjoyable Labor Day filled with family, friends and cookouts! Heritage Capital LLC
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Date: August 31, 2014
