Deluge
Labor Day weekend in New England is always bittersweet as the unofficial end of summer and back to school. The drought-stricken Northeast is finally getting some relief and currently in a deluge. I think we have 5 inches of rain so far and it’s still coming down in buckets. The stock market has been no different of late with a deluge of its own, falling almost 9% since the mid-August peak and back to down 19% on the year. Some […]
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Date: September 6, 2022
September is a Cruel Month
The cruel month of September is here and it’s uglier when the month begins in a downtrend like it is now. August ended up working out similar to what I wrote about a month ago. On average September is down more than 1% with 50 out of the last 90 being lower overall. In a downtrend, 27/38 have been lower with losses exceeding 3%. In midterm election years, 60% of Septembers have been down. If you’re looking for a bright […]
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Date: September 2, 2022
Powell Hangover Continues
The risk markets continue their post-Powell decline from Friday. The S&P 500 has just about reached its short-term downside target of roughly 3950, but we have not seen a solid attempt at a low just yet. Last week I was concerned about the poor action in junk bonds and that continued this week, so much so that we were forced to unwind our various positions at the same time as we were reducing stock market exposure. August ended up playing […]
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Date: August 31, 2022
Powell Pours Cold Water on The Markets
On Friday, I came in with a very specific plan for the day. I was looking to be a seller overall, but I really wanted to see how the markets reacted to Fed Chair Jay Powell’s speech rather than what he actually said. First, I was surprised at just how hawkish and stern his remarks were. I kept waiting for the “but” or “however” which never came. He never even hinted at the elusive soft landing like we saw in […]
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Date: August 29, 2022
All Eyes on Powell
Today is the big day when we hear Fed Chair Jay Powell speak from the KC Fed’s symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. I wonder if he will take the beautiful hike to Jenny Lake or visit the Million Dollar Cowboy Bar in town? I love Jackson. It’s such a great place although the rich and famous seem to have discovered it this century and prices have skyrocketed. Disappointingly for the bulls, markets have rallied into his speech. I would have […]
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Date: August 26, 2022
Skunked
It was a fantastic start to my evening. We finally got some rain. The Yankees were up 2-1 over the Mets. My good friend got some really great, I mean generational news. Then the Yankees blundered followed by a loud scream at the house. Not one, but both dogs got sprayed by a skunk. Not our first skunk rodeo. We cordoned them off in the mud room, the dogs not the Yankees who eventually won. Off to the store I […]
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Date: August 24, 2022
Pullback Area About To Be Reached – Banks Trying
Boy, when the S&P 500 crashes into its average price of the last 200 days that is really like a 12 foot thick, impenetrable concrete wall that no market can even get through. Those nasty bears. Yes, I am of course being sarcastic. The Dow Industrials, S&P 400 and Russell 2000 did not even flinch on their way through those respective levels. With today’s sharply lower open on the heels of a very heavy day last Friday, the stock market […]
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Date: August 22, 2022
Stocks Regain Half of Bear Market – New Highs Ahead?
Earlier this week I wrote about the stock market visiting the Magical and Mystical level of the average price of the last 200 days. I was a bit snarky and sarcastic as I usually am when pundits make asinine comments and claims. In any case, I wrote that the “obvious trade is to suck money in and then quickly pull the rug”. Judging by the last two days and what looks to be a weak opening and options expiration, that’s […]
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Date: August 19, 2022
The Magical & Mystical 200 Day Moving Average
On Monday I wrote China Stinky and said that we need to see how markets react to the news rather than accept the news at face value. And wouldn’t you know it, U.S. stocks surged higher after opening lower in the face of all that bad news. Let me get my shocked face, said me with full sarcasm. Can we rewind all those bearish pundit interviews before 10am on Monday? Of course the media won’t hold anyone accountable. On Tuesday […]
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Date: August 17, 2022
China Stinky
The new week begins with news that China’s economy isn’t as robust as thought. Who really knows what goes on over there. They are never forthcoming will data so this likely means it’s kind of stinky now. While that news hit the pre-market let’s remember that it’s not what the news is, but rather how markets react. Have you heard that before? When I look at the Chinese stocks and ETFs of which we own KWEB, they all seem to […]
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Date: August 15, 2022
