Gold’s Bearish Pattern Trying to Change
When we last left off with the gold market (and the chart below), I offered that “Unless the metal quickly regains the $1350 level, we are most likely looking at further selling and even more record setting negative sentiment before a sustainable rally can begin.” Gold continued its collapse from the time I hit the send button at $1292 all the way down to $1179 a week later. From $1179, it rallied all the way back to $1303 this […]
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Date: July 26, 2013
Short-Term Crossroad
Interesting crossroad for the stock market. Price action says more rally coming shortly while sentiment and internals argue for a 4-8% pullback into August. I guess both could occur in theory. With the Dow, S&P 500 and Russell 2000 hitting fresh all time highs, it will be telling to see if any more cracks appear in the market’s foundation. We’ll take a look at our regular column of Canaries in the Coal Mine shortly. Yesterday, Ben Bernanke’s much anticipated and […]
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Date: July 18, 2013
Oil Acting Up
Crude oil has very quietly rallied from $93 to $106 over the past few weeks. I am surprised we haven’t heard more from the media about it. Usually when it cracks $100, we hear how it is going to hurt the consumer and lead to recession. And all this while the dollar was strong as well. Thursday’s downside reversal was interesting, especially given how weak the dollar was and I will be closely watching to see if the bears can muster […]
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Date: July 12, 2013
And Now China
Financial markets have been hit with the double whammy. First, Bernanke described the Fed’s plan for tapering asset purchases later this year and next and overnight, China reported weaker economic data and some trouble in their banking system. The markets responded with much selling on the heels of yesterday’s sell off, taking the Dow under 15,000. The next downside target for the major stock market indices is just below their respective May lows. After that, markets are probably looking at a […]
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Date: June 20, 2013
Who Turned the Lights Out?
After a nice opening by the bulls on Wednesday, the bears came out en mass to print a fairly ugly day across the board except for gold and the stocks. It looks like stocks are heading back to revisit the lows from last week which should happen in the next few days. The stock market is now as oversold as it has been at any time since the November bottom. Failure to respond positively over the coming week would be […]
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Date: June 14, 2013
Where Did the Bulls go?
I did not like the action today to begin the new week. After Thursday and Friday, the bulls needed to hold serve and not let the bears see any weakness. Monday and Tuesday saw the bears take over and that does not bode well in the short-term, even though the stock market is oversold. More caution is warranted.
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Date: June 12, 2013
Bears in Full Attack Mode
Just one week ago, all the talk was about Dow 16,000 and even higher. They said the year was just like 1995. HA! Years like 1995 come along once every investment cycle, almost like we saw in 2003. The major indices were solidly red today for the second time in four sessions. Contrary to popular belief, trees don’t grow to the sky and neither do stocks! So far, this is an orderly and healthy pullback that should max out at the […]
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Date: June 7, 2013
Bears Still Fleeing Bonds et al
It’s been a relentless assault on the bond market and other interest rate sensitive instruments of late. Treasury bonds, mortgage backed securities, high quality corporate bonds, junk bonds, utilities, REITs have seen intense selling pressure that has only paused for a day here and there since late April. Telecom, REITs and high yield bond mutual funds all hit our sell triggers last month and it certainly feels like consumer staples mutual funds and a few more bond ETFs aren’t too far behind. […]
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Date: June 5, 2013
Apple Is Still Vulnerable, Could Test $250 in Bear Market
A familiar and often controversial topic over the past year or so has been my very negative forecast for Apple. As you know, we do not buy or sell individual stocks as part of our investment strategies but used to view Apple as THE market leader and now a bellwether stock. Long-term, nothing has changed in my view, but I do think a potential rally is setting up that could take the shares into the mid $500s. I will discuss […]
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Date: June 5, 2013
Why Bernanke Can’t Be Fully Transparent
After being interviewed by Melissa Francis for so many years both at Fox Business and CNBC, it was great to finally meet her in person on set. She definitely does not lob softball questions! Here is the segment from the other day. http://video.foxbusiness.com/v/2404884981001/why-bernanke-cant-be-fully-transparent/ Action in the stock market on Thursday and Friday was positive enough to indicate at least one more run to all time highs sooner than later. It was be interesting to what leads and lags if that […]
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Date: May 30, 2013
