Bears Still Fleeing Bonds et al
It’s been a relentless assault on the bond market and other interest rate sensitive instruments of late. Treasury bonds, mortgage backed securities, high quality corporate bonds, junk bonds, utilities, REITs have seen intense selling pressure that has only paused for a day here and there since late April. Telecom, REITs and high yield bond mutual funds all hit our sell triggers last month and it certainly feels like consumer staples mutual funds and a few more bond ETFs aren’t too far behind. […]
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Date: June 5, 2013
Apple Is Still Vulnerable, Could Test $250 in Bear Market
A familiar and often controversial topic over the past year or so has been my very negative forecast for Apple. As you know, we do not buy or sell individual stocks as part of our investment strategies but used to view Apple as THE market leader and now a bellwether stock. Long-term, nothing has changed in my view, but I do think a potential rally is setting up that could take the shares into the mid $500s. I will discuss […]
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Date: June 5, 2013
Why Bernanke Can’t Be Fully Transparent
After being interviewed by Melissa Francis for so many years both at Fox Business and CNBC, it was great to finally meet her in person on set. She definitely does not lob softball questions! Here is the segment from the other day. http://video.foxbusiness.com/v/2404884981001/why-bernanke-cant-be-fully-transparent/ Action in the stock market on Thursday and Friday was positive enough to indicate at least one more run to all time highs sooner than later. It was be interesting to what leads and lags if that […]
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Date: May 30, 2013
Bond Market Sending Warning Sign
Tuesday’s stock market rally looked better in the media than in reality. Early strength was sold and there was not much conviction from the buyers. Unless we see the bulls step up and close above Tuesday’s high, stocks look like they need a pause or pullback here. Closing below Dow 15,175 should set off even more selling while closing above 15,550 should entice more buyers back in. I am concerned here that high yield bonds have taken it on the […]
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Date: May 30, 2013
The Single Most Overhyped Event Since Y2K
Here is the latest Street$marts that talks about Black Friday, Facebook, Apple, the “dreaded” Fiscal Cliff, how the bull market ends and some evidence of a weakening economy. http://www.investfortomorrow.com/newsletter/CurrentStreet$marts20121211.pdf
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Date: December 14, 2012
Are Stocks Dead Money?
Here is the latest Street$marts: http://www.investfortomorrow.com/newsletter/CurrentStreet$marts20120712.pdf Besides offering an essentially sideways forecast, which has been our thesis for a month, we also throw in another unusual economic indicator along with an interesting story from someone on the younger side!
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Date: July 17, 2012
Quietly Strong Selling Wave
Stocks have quietly seen a fairly strong selling wave over the past eight days. Coincidentally (or not), that has been ever since the European Union announced their latest rescue attempt from European Stability Mechanism. After that one huge rally day, stocks have not behaved well and after today (Thursday), they have given back the entire rally. From my seat, the stock market is at an interesting juncture here. I wouldn’t say “critical”, but the bulls need to step up here […]
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Date: July 12, 2012
Markets Pricing in Weak Earnings
Earlier this week, I did an interview with Fox Business about the possible increase in taxes when the Bush/Obama tax cuts expire in December. Later in the segment, we discussed earnings season, which began this week with Alcoa, and how just one quarter off record earnings, investors are becoming so pessimistic. While it certainly feels like a negative year in the markets, the major indices remain in the black for 2012. In fact, the year is very closely following the typical […]
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Date: July 11, 2012
Stocks Slide on Tepid Jobs Growth Number
On Friday’s CNBC segment, I spoke about the range bound market with the potential for a fall swoon before the election. But in any market, there are always opportunities and this time is no different. http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000101361&play=1 So far this week, stocks have not behaved well, but it’s far from a rout and the trading range continues. On Wednesday, we get a peak at the minutes from the Fed meeting and folks will take any scrap of comments that leads to […]
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Date: July 11, 2012
3 Indicators That Can Tell You the Market’s Next Move
On Monday, I was in the city spending some time with my friends at Yahoo Finance. As always, I thank them for their hospitality and Jeff Macke for the engaging conversation. http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout/3-indicators-tell-market-next-move-115923205.html With the volume and velocity of information out there, trying to get a read on the stock market is like attempting to get a sip of water from a firehose. Thankfully Paul Schatz of Heritage Capital has three ways to check the health of the market and durability […]
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Date: July 5, 2012
