Pullback Accelerates
First, lets’ start off with the Fed model which was woefully wrong on Wednesday, calling for a post-2pm rally. When markets don’t do what they’re supposed to do, they often accelerate in the opposite direction which is what we saw on Thursday. The two-day decline was real, lopping 2-4% off of the major stock market indices. Below is the S&P 500. At the close it met my minimum downside target of breaching the August low. You can see the two […]
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Date: September 22, 2023
Fed Stands Pat – Stocks Should Rally
It’s Fed day and an uneventful one at that. Interest rates will not be going up today. That’s what everyone expects and what we will hear at 2pm. Before that the model says plus or minus 0.50% in the stock market and then the usual bigger moves after the Fed news breaks. With the recent weakness, the model says the bulls have the upper hand today. I also do not think the Fed will say anything about a pause for […]
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Date: September 20, 2023
Dreaming of Retirement? Here’s What $3 Million Can Get You
Let’s say you’ve tucked away $3 million for your retirement years in Hartford or New Haven, Connecticut. It might sound like a large amount, but in today’s world of economic uncertainty, inflation, and rising longevity, it’s important to know the real purchasing power of your savings. In this blog, we’ll explore how viable it is to retire with $3 million in savings and how you can effectively manage these assets with comprehensive retirement planning. Let’s dive in. 1. Retirement Spending […]
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Date: September 18, 2023
The Weakest Week of the Weakest Month Already in Pullback Mode
And so begins the weakest week of the weakest month of the year. In fact, for all of September’s ominous tones, you can attribute more than 100% of the negativity to this week. (hat tip to my friend Rob Hanna of Quantifiable Edges) Now, before you start thinking about crashes and collapses, let’s remember that we are talking about an average, not a certainty. And last Friday was down decently against the backdrop of the auto strike and one of […]
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Date: September 18, 2023
Risk Increasing – Important Time to Pay Attention
The stock market had a nice rally on Thursday. And price is getting closer to the upper line in the sand, 4555 or so where my thesis for another pullback would be more difficult. So far, the markets have done nothing wrong to negate further upside, but risk should begin to increase today. The next few weeks have a very negative seasonal headwind and there is major labor strike in the country. Interestingly, mega cap tech is not the sexy […]
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Date: September 15, 2023
CPI & Dollar Warm
Just a quick note today. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in a bit hotter than forecast, but that’s what the data were pointing at. I have written that inflation was likely finding a floor in the mid 3% area and that some increase was coming. But remember, the economy and markets are in very different places than they were two plus years ago when the Fed was well behind the curve. Now, Powell & company seem to have gone […]
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Date: September 13, 2023
Bulls Not Convincing, Yet
9-11 is always a difficult day. Everyone seems to know someone who perished in that unspeakable, cowardly terrorist attack. I lost a childhood friend and a fraternity brother. Many or most years, I repeat my story that day. I just don’t have the mental energy today. I simply hope that no one ever forgets what happened. Stocks are in the midst of what I think will end up being a feeble bounce. Sure, I could be grossly wrong and the […]
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Date: September 11, 2023
Stock Market in a Vulnerable Position
The stock market is now in a vulnerable position. Vulnerable doesn’t mean crash or bear market or even a decline. It just means that the path of least resistance is lower, not today or any day, just in general. The S&P 500 as seen below is now caught between last week’s high and the August lows. For the vulnerable regime to pass, we want to see either price level exceeded on a daily closing basis. I will speculate and say […]
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Date: September 8, 2023
Challenges of Residential Real Estate
Greetings from 36,000 feet as I make a quick trip to Florida to visit clients and a few new prospective clients. As I sit here my thinking on the markets is not any different from what I have been writing about so I decided to pivot to a totally different topic, interest rates. I am always interested in your feedback, positive or negative, so feel free to share. The worst kept secret of all-time is that interest rates have soared […]
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Date: September 6, 2023
The Spookiness of September Arrives
I keep chatting with folks who bemoan the end of summer because kids are back to school or they work in education. I had news for them. Summer ain’t over. Just like Punxsutawney Phil the groundhog, I see another 6 weeks of summer or pretty close. While ski season is less than 100 days away, I have no plans on mentally preparing just yet. August ended with a little whimper. Stocks sold off into the close while still in a […]
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Date: September 1, 2023
Nice Bounce But Not Convincing
Long-term bond yields have come down over the past two weeks. Ya know what that leads to in this climate? Stocks have bounced nicely over the past week although I sense that yesterday was the day of recognition, the day when people realized there has been a little rally. Usually, we see some weakness a day or two later. At this point the S&P 500 has regained a little more than half of what it lost. If my thesis regarding […]
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Date: August 30, 2023
BUT BUT BUT Nvidia Had a Blowout Quarter
When I got back from the Midwest on Wednesday night my middle son immediately wanted to discuss Nvdia’s absolute blowout earnings report. Before you start thinking that he’s another example of insanely bullish sentiment on the stock and AI in general, he has been all over AI and the semis for a number of years. He just doesn’t understand the ebb of flow of stock price movement. I told him that given the strong run up in the stock and […]
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Date: August 28, 2023
Long Lives & Tech Leaps: The Role of Generational Wealth Today
We continue to see the promising potential for extended life spans in an age of rapidly advancing technology and medicine. If you are 20, you have a 50% chance of living to be 100 or more. If you are already 60, you have a 50% chance of living to be 90 or more. Plus, there are emerging technologies that could extend lifespans even longer. While this is a somewhat futuristic perspective, we should ask ourselves: Are we prepared for our […]
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Date: August 28, 2023
It’s P Day
A year ago at this time, Fed Chair Jay Powell gave a very short and direct speech at Jackson Hole. Most people were surprised at how short his comments were, but no one misunderstood his powerful message which he followed through on ever since. I do not expect Powell’s speech to be as short as 2022 nor as direct and sharp. I expect him to continue to be mildly hawkish and report that the Fed’s job is almost but not […]
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Date: August 25, 2023
The Ultimate Guide to Understanding Your Social Security Benefits
Understanding how to manage your Social Security benefits is crucial to your overall retirement planning success as you approach retirement. As the owner of a Registered Investment Advisory firm in Woodbridge, CT, and a fiduciary financial advisor, I get to help individuals prepare for a successful retirement by answering questions such as: When should I start taking Social Security benefits? Can I still work while collecting Social Security? Will my Social Security benefits be taxed? How do withdrawals from retirement […]
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Date: August 23, 2023
Reversals Abound – All Eyes on Nvidia
Friday’s reversal from early losses looks interesting on a chart for sure as you can see below in the S&P 500, but Tuesday also showed a less impressive reversal. This time it was to the downside. While I expected more from the bulls after Friday, perhaps I am being a bit too impatient. We will have to see. In what has become the most anticipated earnings report in a long time, Nvidia reports after the close today. The chart is […]
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Date: August 23, 2023
State of the Pullback – Where It Ends, When and What to Buy
A new video has been posted! State of the Pullback – Where It Ends, When and What to Buy On Friday we sold RSYYX and levered S&P 500.
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Date: August 20, 2023
5% Pullback Hit – Low at Hand
I remember when COVID hit and NYC was the epicenter. The hysteria around metro living was pervasive and most predicted mass exoduses from the major cities for years and years to come. After all, who in their right mind would ever get into an elevator with other people? Who would ride subways and busses packed with others? Well, as I walked across town, the city was more crowded than ever, both in vehicles and walking. I didn’t see a single […]
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Date: August 18, 2023
OUCH Day on Tuesday
Tuesday was an “OUCH” day. The stock market was set up for a bounce and perhaps a multi-day bounce as I wrote on Monday. The bears pulled the rug out and it was a day that hurt the bulls. As you can see at the end of this post we ended up selling a good number of positions as the set ups failed and I was wrong. I mentioned before, but it’s important enough to reiterate. A few weeks ago […]
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Date: August 16, 2023
Pullback Not Over But Multi-Day Bounce Setting Up
Good Monday morning everyone. Mine began by being 5 minutes early. So, I decided to move a bag of fertilizer from the front of the garage to the back. I had to squeeze by my car which didn’t look to difficult. But it is a Monday morning. On the way to the back I smashed my left hand into my side view mirror of my car. Seeing stars quickly ensued. Then the swelling, throbbing and transition to black and blue. […]
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Date: August 14, 2023
