Top 6 Financial Tips Before Year-End
The final week of 2022 is upon us and I wanted to share a video I created as well as a recent segment I did with my friend, Tim Lammers, on Fox61 in CT. It’s not too late to do some last minute financial planning and save money before the year ends. As always please don’t hesitate to call or email with any questions or comments. Top 6 Financial Tips Before Year-End Plans and reflections for end-of-year personal finances Last […]
Read More
Date: December 28, 2022
How Can a High Net-Worth Individual Fortify Investments?
These can be challenging times for investors. As I’ve mentioned before, the classic 60/40 investment portfolio is not the reliable go-to it was for decades. The economy and stock market both tend to be cyclical, so they should improve over time. However, that probably won’t happen overnight. This is why having a well-diversified investment portfolio is always a good idea. What follows are some additional tips to consider. This article considers these topics: Resist the urge to sell when the […]
Read More
Date: December 27, 2022
The Santa Claus Rally Begins
Regardless of what the pundits and media say, the true Santa Claus Rally (SCR) as observed and researched by Yale Hirsch of Stock Traders Almanac fame began at the close on December 22nd and lasts through the close on January 4th. In other words the trend is the last five trading days of the year and first two of the new year. That’s not debatable. Whether Santa arrives or not is up for debate. Since 2000 Santa rewarded investors 18 […]
Read More
Date: December 23, 2022
How Will Social Security Change in 2023?
The Social Security Administration (SSA) has announced that there will be several changes to benefits in 2023. According to them, these changes are necessary for ensuring the program’s long-term stability. In this blog post, I’ll take a closer look at what the changes may entail—and how they could affect (even affluent) investors. I may share more insights in the coming weeks, as well. Please explore these issues with us: Social Security’s 2023 COLA summarized Taking benefits early vs. waiting for […]
Read More
Date: December 22, 2022
Opportunity to Bottom Today
I have been targeting this week for the December bottom and rally into January which occurs roughly 80% of the time. While Monday failed to deliver, Tuesday looked more constructive and Wednesday looks like it may confirm the low. We will see after the close. I want to see a close above Tuesday’s high as well as price closing in the upper half of Wednesday’s range. And as I always do, if the stock market closes below Tuesday’s low, I […]
Read More
Date: December 21, 2022
Void of Data Begins
The financial markets survived the FOMC meeting, inflation report and Friday’s enormous expiration of options and futures. And by survive, I mean that the markets did not implode, but they did not come away unscathed. Last week, I offered that the stock market should put in at least a short-term low by the end of this coming week. That’s still the plan. The first opportunity comes right away on Monday with a close above Friday’s high. While few setups look […]
Read More
Date: December 19, 2022
Fresh Selling Wave Hits Post CPI
It certainly has been a wild few days and it’s not over. Between the Fed meeting, CPI report and today’s gargantuan expiration of futures and options, the markets have had an overwhelming amount of information to absorb. Volatility has been high. For December, it has been on the extreme side. While I am sure it is different as most are, this has the feel of the early June selling wave with multiple days down and gap down weak openings. Look […]
Read More
Date: December 16, 2022
Festive Lights & Financial Planners in Connecticut
The holidays are supposed to be a time for cheer and relaxation, but for many affluent investors, they can also be a time of stress. Between trying to find the perfect gifts and spending time with family, it can be hard to focus on your financial life in general, much less your investments. That’s where wealth management comes in: The right professional can help you relax more—by taking care of your investments for you. While you recharge, mentally and physically, […]
Read More
Date: December 13, 2022
Disappointment on Friday
A few interesting tidbits from Friday’s action. The bond market as measured by TLT sold off a whopping 2.6%. Instances like that were seen 7 times so far this year, 4 times in 2020, 4 times in 2011 and 7 times in 2009 plus a few other random happenings along the way. In 2022 none of them marked the bottom but other years saw more favorable results going forward. While I did not buy any bonds on Friday because it […]
Read More
Date: December 12, 2022
Semis & Banks Offer Opposing Views – Home Heating Oil Update
It has been a crummy little stretch for stocks and other risk assets, having given back the entire Jay Powell pivot chat from last week.That was when Fed Chair Powell was interviewed by David Wessel and really just slightly came off his uber hawkish view and said that a 1/2% hike was coming next week. As I have been writing about for months the dollar and the 10-Year have come way off their highs which is good for stocks and […]
Read More
Date: December 7, 2022
White Hot Jobs Market & Yields Go Down
On Friday the government released the employment report for November which showed 263,000 new jobs being created. That was well above the 200,000 estimated. Unemployment remained steady at 3.7%. We also saw wages increase at 5.1% on an annualized basis. While this is great news for Americans and the economy, it is not what Jay Powell and the Fed wanted to see. Recall that the Fed is on an inflation fighting crusade. Let’s remember that Fed action takes 6-9 month […]
Read More
Date: December 5, 2022
More Props For The Bulls
Wednesday was a huge day for the bulls. It started out mildly until Fed Chair Powell spoke with David Wessel from the Brookings Institute. Then the fuse got lit and risk on assets soared. Almost 90% of the day’s volume was in stocks that went up. The Dow Industrials, S&P 500, S&P 400 and NASDAQ 100 all went to new highs for Q4. Only the Russell 2000 lags. Below you can see the percent of stocks in the S&P 500 […]
Read More
Date: December 2, 2022
Slice It How You Want, Yield Curves Point To Recession in 2023
It’s no secret that I have been steadfast this year that the U.S. economy has not been in recession. And yes, I do know that both Q1 and Q2 saw negative GDP growth. It doesn’t matter. That’s not a recession. Sorry. And I am not going to feed into the political nonsense regarding the definition of recession. The National Bureau of Economic Research is the final arbiter of recessions, not politicians nor pundits. Anyway, my economic forecast for 2023 isn’t […]
Read More
Date: November 30, 2022
Seasonal Headwind Today As Black Friday & Cyber Monday Get Weighed
Welcome back to the last week of November. I hope you had a great Thanksgiving! I ate my face off and just finished leftovers this morning for breakfast. I refuse to loosen my belt so it’s going to be an uncomfortable week. My mom and wife went all out with the traditional fare as well as something unusual. Teri makes the single best challah on earth and last week she shaped one into a turkey. Between the Cowboys winning and […]
Read More
Date: November 28, 2022
The Pieces Are Falling Into Place
As I mentioned on Monday this week has a seasonal tailwind, but especially Wednesday and Friday. Then next Monday has a headwind. I found it so interesting that as stocks rallied in broad-based fashion on Tuesday, pundits became so enamored. Since the October 13th bottom, all we have heard was folks selling the bear market rally. Now it seems like pundits pivoted to buying for a year-end rally. I guess after a 12% rally in the S&P 500, the masses […]
Read More
Date: November 23, 2022
Europe & Dow Showing Emerging Index Leadership As Dollar Plummets
Thanksgiving week is here! I love Thanksgiving. I think it’s my favorite holiday. Food, family, football and fun. Markets do too with the week being historically strong. While Monday and Tuesday do not have a tailwind, Wednesday and Friday certainly do. And then one week from today is a seasonally weak day. Since the big bottom in October we know that Europe and NASDAQ 100 rallied the most to the recent highs. S&P 400, emerging markets, Dow Industrials and Russell […]
Read More
Date: November 21, 2022
It’s Tax-Loss Harvest Season
Happy Thanksgiving! I hope your holiday is meaningful, safe and happy. However—with an appreciation for the beloved November holiday—there is another, less celebrated time that we can recognize this year, as well. It is not just harvest season; it’s tax-loss harvest season. In times when even the affluent can be at risk of losing wealth to inflation, that’s a good thing. This article explains these topics: Tax-loss harvesting: what is it & how does it work? Even the affluent need […]
Read More
Date: November 21, 2022
Gridlock Is Good
I spent yesterday in NYC for the first time since early June. And I did something I said I would never do again, or at least for 5 years. I rode the subway, multiple times. I was surprised at how empty it was. I was surprised that people take dogs on now which is against the rules. I was shocked at how many just jumped the turnstile in front of MTA agents and not a single person even flinched. Why […]
Read More
Date: November 18, 2022
The Fall of SBF Continues as Markets Yawn
The FTX news and spectacular collapse of the company and crypto poster boy, Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF), continues. From 10,000 creditors, last I saw it was up t0 1,000,000 creditors. Other crypto firms are being wiped out in the contagion. Thankfully, it seems limited to that sector and is not systemic. SBF is yet another in a long line of supposed transcenders who knew better and ended up in ruin. The Hunt brothers with silver in 1980. Bernie Madoff in 2008. […]
Read More
Date: November 16, 2022
And They Called ME An Idiot
Last week was chock full of news on all fronts. There was something for everyone, including my Cowboys embarrassingly falling apart in the fourth quarter. Inflation, markets, crypto and geopolitics. I intended to cover everything in detail in this video below, but there just wasn’t time although I was able to touch on all topics. And They Called ME An Idiot In one portion of the video above, I forgot to list some high profile and well-heeled big money investors […]
Read More
Date: November 14, 2022
