BOOM Goes the Fed Dynamite
Ben Bernanke & Co. delivered QE3 yesterday by announcing a plan to purchase mortgage backed securities (mortgages) for at least the next two months at roughly $40 billion per month. And the markets were delighted! The best analogy I can offer is that the markets are like crack addicts now and need their steady and regular fix of stimulus. As time goes on, a drug addict usually needs more and more drugs and that’s exactly how the markets are behaving. […]
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Date: September 20, 2012
German Courts and Apple
Markets breathed a collective sigh of relief after the German courts ruled “favorably”, allowing the European bailouts to continue. Apple unveiled its latest iPhone as the stock sits near all time highs. Both events did not inspire the markets to do much other than digest as they awaited the Fed’s 12:30pm announcement on Thursday. By the end of the week, the markets will have digested the ECB’s latest pledge to buy European debt in a HUGE way, Apple’s new phone, […]
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Date: September 20, 2012
Time for the Fed & ECB to Put Up or Shut Up
Here is the piece I did last Friday after the putrid jobs report. While the headline number may have indicated an increase of almost 100,000 net new jobs, the underlying data was awful. Additionally, while the unemployment rate may have fallen to 8.1% from 8.3%, it was primarily due to people leaving the workforce than people being hired. We already know that Bernanke & Co. are close to another round of money printing (QE) and this will likely push them […]
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Date: September 20, 2012
WHEN the Bull Market Ends
The latest Street$marts is here… http://www.investfortomorrow.com/newsletter/CurrentStreet$marts20120905.pdf
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Date: September 6, 2012
FOX Business TODAY at 1:30pm
I am scheduled to be on FOX Business’ Markets Now at 1:30pm today discussing the historically low volatility in the markets as well as the roadmap to the election. If you looked for me on CNBC last Friday, Labor Day traffic was off the charts, deeming it impossible to get to the station on time. This week, I will be posting the two Yahoo Finance segments I did last week along with a new Street$marts issue. Several cracks in the pavement […]
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Date: September 4, 2012
Apple in the Spotlight… Again
It’s been a while since I mentioned Apple, but the action of late deserves comment. After peaking in April with the broad market, the stock declined into May with the broad market. But when stocks declined further into early June, Apple did not follow suit by making a new low. Rather, it formed a higher low than it saw in May and that was the first clue that it was ready to rally again. This week, Apple made an all […]
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Date: September 4, 2012
Friday is Finally Here
It seems like the markets, investors and media have been waiting forever for Ben Bernanke to give his annual speech from the Fed’s retreat in Jackson Hole WY. Lots of initial expectations have faded into much ado about nothing. I like that the stock market is showing weakness into the speech. That leaves ammunition for a potential move higher next week. Today’s decline was very orderly and began to restore a little worry in the markets. We don’t need all […]
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Date: September 4, 2012
Like Watching Paint Dry
Unlike the summers of 2011, 2010, 2009, 2008, 2007 and 2006, the summer of 2012 has been very, very quiet. Volatility is at an historically low level. Volatility contraction leads to expansion and vice-versa. At some point, we are going to see a spike in volatility and that will shock the system. Later this week, Ben Bernanke will make his annual speech from the Fed’s retreat in Jackson Hole WY on Friday at 10:00am. While everyone will be on the […]
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Date: September 4, 2012
The Bulls Powering to New 2012 Highs
New Street$marts is out chock full of tidbits with Paul Ryan, the Fed, ECB and stocks on their way to new 2012 highs! http://www.investfortomorrow.com/newsletter/CurrentStreet$marts20120816.pdf
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Date: August 20, 2012
Bulls Giving it the College Try
Following up from the Street$marts issue I published today (link to follow here on Friday), the bulls are stepping up here on the Dow, S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100, closing the day within striking distance of new highs for 2012. I expect that to occur over the coming days. Once that is achieved, I do not anticipate a blow off to the upside. Rather, I think the stock market will be within a few percent of peaking. Flies in the ointment […]
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Date: August 16, 2012
All Eyes and Ears on the Global Central Banks
Here is the link from Friday’s segment: http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000108518&play=1 Nothing has changed regarding the outlook for stocks. I think we are in a generally benign period for equities that has been following the typical presidential election year pattern of a Q1 rally, a springtime low and summer rally to a peak. If that continues to hold true, we should see another good bottom in September or October and then rally into year-end. I am sure the market will throw some doubt […]
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Date: August 13, 2012
CNBC’s Closing Bell TODAY at 3:00pm est (and some Fed news)
I am going to be on CNBC’s Closing Bell with Tyler and Maria at 3pm est today. The discussion will likely focus on the very anemic and sub par economic recovery, but certainly not unexpected. As I have written about many times before, this is your typical post financial crisis recovery. It’s frustrating and uneven with little major progress. But this too will come to an end. Earlier this week, we heard from two non voting members of the FOMC […]
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Date: August 10, 2012
A Face for Radio
Here is the link from my FOX Business segment on Monday. You will notice that I was on the phone rather than in front of the camera. I guess they finally realized that I had a better face for radio! http://video.foxbusiness.com/v/1773818720001/ipo-surge-a-healthy-sign-for-markets
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Date: August 7, 2012
FOX Business & Employment Report Update
I am going to be on FOX Business’ Markets Now close to 1pm est on Monday, hopefully discussing some of the items below. After a string of weak but positive employment reports, Friday’s data were “better than expected”, but still not strong enough to keep pace with population growth. And when you dive into the details of the report, according to John Williams of Shadow Stats, you see the normal “seasonal adjustments” accounted for a significant number of jobs created. What […]
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Date: August 6, 2012
Nothing New from the ECB
After Ben Bernanke gave the market little to cheer for on Wednesday, his European counterpart, Mario Draghi, and the ECB left interest rates alone and disappointed investors who were hoping for a follow up from his bold statement last week. Draghi did indicate that massive bond purchases would resume again, but that was more than expected. Draghi better deliver quickly or his credibility will certainly suffer. Could he have put his foot in his mouth without speaking with the Germans […]
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Date: August 6, 2012
Keeping an Eye on Those Canaries
The latest Street$marts is out. http://www.investfortomorrow.com/newsletter/CurrentStreet$marts20120801.pdf
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Date: August 6, 2012
Fed Disappoints
Bernanke & Co. gave the market little in the way of new stimulus today, but I think that’s just temporary. Like a crack addict, the markets just want more and more and more, no matter what the consequences. QEIII should be coming and all eyes will be on Jackson Hole Wyoming later this month for the Fed’s annual retreat angd speech. The data are not strong, but they are certainly not falling off of a cliff. It’s just your typical […]
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Date: August 6, 2012
Break Up the Banks!
This morning on CNBC’s Squawk Box, Sandy Weill made a truly shocking remark. If you don’t know Sandy, he built Citi into the financial conglomerate it is today, putting together my old employer Shearson Lehman, Smith Barney, Primerica, Travelers and many, many more financial companies. Sandy was supposed to be the heir apparent at AMEX when Shearson was called Shearson/American Express, but massive egos got in the way in the roaring 1980s. One of the many causes of the 2007 […]
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Date: July 25, 2012
Market Getting Tired
Here is Monday’s segment we did on CNBC which remains our position today. http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000103231&play=1 Stocks have been on a nice little run this week with a dearth of news out of Europe and generally better than expected earnings from bellwether companies. Keep in mind that the earnings “beats” are after Wall Street cut estimates over the past month and the general sentiment regarding earnings had become so negative that it should not be a surprise to see them bettered. This […]
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Date: July 20, 2012
Are Stocks Dead Money?
Here is the latest Street$marts: http://www.investfortomorrow.com/newsletter/CurrentStreet$marts20120712.pdf Besides offering an essentially sideways forecast, which has been our thesis for a month, we also throw in another unusual economic indicator along with an interesting story from someone on the younger side!
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Date: July 17, 2012
