Bulls Hanging In During Tug o’ War
All of the ingredients were in place for one of those quick, sharp down days on Monday with a plethora of geopolitical news. From poor economic news out of China to continuing saga in Crimea and the Ukraine to the still missing aircraft, all the excuses were there. And while stocks sold off early in the day, a similar story over the past few years played out; the bulls slowly and steadily stepped up to trim the losses. After four […]
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Date: March 11, 2014
Stocks Looking to Rest
Stocks begin the week needing to breathe after an overwhelming 7 days of news all over the landscape. Last week at this time the globe was worried about World War III but ended the week with a better than expected employment report. The bull market remains old and wrinkly, but very much alive. At this point there are no serious warning signs that the bear wants to come out of hibernation. Furthermore, there aren’t even any warning signs that a […]
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Date: March 9, 2014
Here We Go Again… Jobs Friday
Wasn’t it just yesterday that we were talking about the monthly employment report? Well, we’re here again! With back to back weak reports blamed on “weather”, stocks are set up to rally on a good report that gets past weather and a bad but not atrocious report that blames “weather”. It must be nice to have the “weather” fall back on. I may have to try that with clients. Credit a good quarterly report on our skills, but blame a […]
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Date: March 7, 2014
No More Shush… Emerging Markets are Waking Up
After an horrific 2013 relative to the developed world, emerging markets fell even harder in January. Slowing China. Contagion in the Pacific Basin. Instability in South America. They were left for dead, especially in the media. But a funny thing happened on the way to the embalming parlor. Sellers became scarce even with the powder keg in the Ukraine. Buyers began to step up and the MSCI Emerging Markets Index has rallied 8% over the past month. In my 2014 […]
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Date: March 6, 2014
Modern Day Cold War?
Geopolitical news now dominates the news cycle with nothing more front and center than the sudden and disturbing turn of events in Ukraine. It’s hard to believe that after spending $51 billion to showcase Sochi and build goodwill throughout the world, Russia has effectively hit the delete button on the whole winter Olympics with aggression in the Crimea. Is an invasion of the Ukraine next? The odds are probably 60-40 in favor. It’s something that really makes you scratch your […]
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Date: March 3, 2014
2014 Fearless Forecast
It’s really embarrassing that it’s been almost two months since I began speaking about my thoughts for 2014, yet I have been unable to mass distribute them. Shame on me! So far, to those folks who have read them, the comments and questions have been great. Keep them coming! Regular readers of Street$marts and this blog won’t be surprised at most of the forecast, but I did throw in a few new items. As always, I had a lot of […]
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Date: February 21, 2014
Bulls Surprise to Upside
I should probably qualify that title with “me”. Bulls Surprise Me to Upside. After Wednesday’s action, it looked like IF the bears were going turn the tide back in their direction, that was the time. Almost 90% of NYSE stocks were trading above their 10 day moving averages while the vast majority was below their 50 day moving average. With stocks opening sharply lower on Thursday, that scenario started to play out. However, someone forgot to tell the bulls that […]
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Date: February 15, 2014
Bounce and Then Some! Two Possible Scenarios
In the middle of last week, I posted a piece about the potential for a very short-term rally, which you can see here, http://investfortomorrowblog.com/archives/1002. Stocks had come down very hard and very fast relative to what we have seen over the past year. I didn’t believe the ultimate low was seen, but the market could certainly bounce for a few days to a week. It’s a week later now and boy did the market bounce! The NASDAQ 100 even made it […]
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Date: February 12, 2014
The “All Important” Employment Report
Today is Jobs Friday and the pundits are usually out in force predicting the number of non-farm payroll jobs created. That’s one area I usually steer clear of as it is probably the most volatile, inconsistent and unpredictable economic number of the month. What’s even more futile is forecasting the market’s reaction, which is sometimes a head scratcher. Last month’s number was a complete and utter disaster, but the stock market barely shrugged and tested the highs the following week. […]
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Date: February 7, 2014
Bears Take a Breather
Here is the link to the segment I did on Fox Business the other day with Lori Rothman and Adam Shapiro. This pretty much spells out what I have written here regarding my thoughts on the market this quarter. Thanks to Adam and Lori for letting me articulate my forecast. http://video.foxbusiness.com/v/3151668123001/ingredients-for-ending-a-bull-market/#sp=show-clips Stock market action over the past two days gives a glimmer of hope to the bulls for a short-term rally. I do not believe the final bottom is in as […]
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Date: February 6, 2014
Ugliness & Carnage Continues… As Expected
The latest Street$marts has been posted. http://www.investfortomorrow.com/newsletter/CurrentStreet$marts20140203.pdf
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Date: February 5, 2014
Fox Business TODAY @ 1:05 PM
I am going to be on Fox Business’ Markets Now at 1:05 PM EST today, February 4, discussing the stock market’s plunge from the perspective of someone who forecasted it a month ago. Yesterday’s collapse was very broad based with 94% of the volume on the downside. That’s the second 90%+ downside volume day of the decline and while a little late, confirmed that the stock market is in a corrective phase. Sentiment has come way off the overly bullish […]
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Date: February 4, 2014
Battered, Bruised & Beaten Up
After that “thrilling” Super Bowl, the markets come back to work kind of like Peyton Manning, battered, bruised, beaten up and in need of some TLC. Unfortunately, any TLC seen in the stock market should only be temporary and lead to more selling and lower lows. I am starting to see some constructive things, but the market isn’t there yet. Downside targets are beginning to develop and the easiest one in the S&P 500 is the 1700 area, which represents […]
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Date: February 3, 2014
Super Bowl
For all of the 90’s whichever team I thought would win, usually lost. Of course, my own team the Dallas Cowboys won three times and I never wanted to jinx them by picking them! When the century turned and my team began to stink, my Super Bowl picking record improved dramatically. This year, I am very torn. My heart and family go to the class act of the NFL, Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos. There are few stories as good […]
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Date: February 2, 2014
Canaries Quiet
Thanks to my friend and business colleague/partner Dave Moenning (stateofthemarkets.com) for the canary pic. It’s been a while since I last updated this column, but it’s not because I am lazy! There simply haven’t been enough changes in the data to warrant an update. The rally through year-end was very powerful and almost all areas we in gear to the upside. And even today, while there may be a few warnings, we don’t have bull market ending conditions in place. […]
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Date: February 1, 2014
Snap Back
Stocks are opening sharply higher after Wednesday’s drubbing. We have not seen the ultimate low for a good rally. That looks to come in February. This little rally should be more than a one day wonder, but if it somehow fizzles out and closes in the red today, look out below! I think you could see one of those trap door, elevator shaft declines that forces a mini panic. I don’t think that scenario plays out, but it’s something to […]
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Date: January 30, 2014
Bernanke’s Swan Song at Interesting Crossroad
On Monday, I discussed how a very short-term rally was close at hand. I continued that yesterday morning about the prospects for a Turnaround Tuesday rally. The bulls came back to work on Tuesday in a very underwhelming way. The open was without conviction. Volume was anemic, further solidifying my stance that the market isn’t close to a low of any significance. With Apple’s disaster, stocks had a chance for a big gap down and short-term washout. But that wasn’t […]
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Date: January 29, 2014
Turnaround Tuesday
The carnage continued yet again on Monday, spilling over from Friday’s sharp decline. If you turned on the TV, you would have thought stocks are down double digits and in free fall the way the pundits are talking about this little decline. But you know better. Since the first of the year when the market started losing the positive calendar tailwind, I have been discussing a scenario for a routine and healthy bull market pullback of 5-10%. That’s where we […]
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Date: January 28, 2014
Stock Market in Tailspin but Bull Market Lives In
The latest Street$marts has been posted. http://www.investfortomorrow.com/newsletter/CurrentStreet$marts20140124.pdf
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Date: January 27, 2014
Very Short-Term Bounce on the Way
Stocks closed last week on a very ugly note with an across the board rout after underwhelming earnings and continued problems in the emerging markets. This is exactly the type of decline I spoke about for the past few weeks. All of the necessary ingredients were there and price finally succumbed. Friday was so ugly that it can actually be construed as okay in the very, very short-term. Days like that either lead to higher openings on Monday to relieve […]
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Date: January 27, 2014
