Very Short-Term Bounce on the Way
Stocks closed last week on a very ugly note with an across the board rout after underwhelming earnings and continued problems in the emerging markets. This is exactly the type of decline I spoke about for the past few weeks. All of the necessary ingredients were there and price finally succumbed. Friday was so ugly that it can actually be construed as okay in the very, very short-term. Days like that either lead to higher openings on Monday to relieve […]
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Date: January 27, 2014
Top 5 Tips for Financial Fitness in 2014
Here is the link to my segment on Fox 61 in CT, Top 5 Tips for Financial Fitness in 2014 http://foxct.com/2014/01/23/morning-extra-tips-to-get-financially-fit-in-2014/
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Date: January 26, 2014
Stocks Take It on the Chin, But…
Since the start of the year, I have been very cautious on the stock market, primarily due to market sentiment being at rally killing levels along with finally losing the tailwind of the positive calendar effects. The risk/reward looked so unfavorable that we took across the board action in many of our portfolios raising cash to even 100% in some cases, levels not seen since 2012. On average the major indices have gone nowhere for the past month with the […]
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Date: January 24, 2014
Goldman Sachs and the “Curious” Biotech Downgrade
I like to take things at face value. It’s makes life so much easier that way! But every once in a while, and probably more so in this business, some things just make you go “hmmmmmmmmm…”. Two weeks ago, Goldman Sachs issued a very public call on the biotech sector. If it was almost anyone else, you would shrug your shoulders and move on. However, with Goldman, I sometimes take the “curious” stance, rightly or wrongly so. Goldman downgraded biotech […]
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Date: January 22, 2014
There is Always Something to Buy
Like a broken record, stock market sentiment remains at rally killing levels as it has for the past two months or so, but that certainly didn’t prevented us from taking full advantage of the Santa Claus rally. Now that the calendar turned and the most bullish period of the year has ended, the tailwind for stocks isn’t as strong. As the market has been for some time, it is stretched, very overbought and in need of good 5-10% pullback. The very […]
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Date: January 13, 2014
Employment Report Disappoints
The overly anticipated employment report showed a disappointing 74,000 jobs being created in December. I have already heard the pundits argue away ad nauseam this report as an outlier that will be revised higher in subsequent months, something I don’t rule out. However, they also reason that all is great and our economy is about to go into warp speed. I could not disagree more as I have since the economy bottomed in 2009. All was not ok in 2009 or 2010 […]
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Date: January 12, 2014
Employment Report Key to Very Short-Term
On Friday morning at 8:30am the monthly jobs report will be out. This has become the most watched and heavily anticipated economic report of the month. Over the past year or so it has been the bulls’ ATM machine as the vast majority of those days have been up and very easy on the bulls with few meaningful losses. The major stock market indices are in a very interesting position heading into Friday. Since Christmas they have essentially gone nowhere, […]
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Date: January 10, 2014
Bears Have the Ball
Having been bullish on balance since Q4 of 2012, the time has come to temporarily temper that enthusiasm. As I have written about since November, market sentiment has been at rally killing levels that is starting to encroach on bull market ending levels. Our investment models rolled over at the close of 2013 and the risk/reward is now skewed to the downside by at least a 2:1 margin. In plain English, I think the upside is now capped at 2-4% […]
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Date: January 6, 2014
A “To Do” List Before 2013 Ends
Don’t leave money on the table In uncertain economic times, many employees put off contributions to retirement accounts, reasoning that they will make up lost ground when times improve. Doing so, however, could result in leaving what is virtually “free” money on the table. If you have a 401(k) or comparable retirement account where your employer matches your contributions always contribute enough each year to receive your full employer match. Not doing so leaves money on the table. […]
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Date: December 27, 2013
Ho Ho Ho! Santa Bernanke Arrived
Greetings from usually cold and snowy, but recently tropical and wet Vermont! After three days of skiing in the rain, Old Man Winter came back and cut the temps by 70%! From short sleeve shirts and a light jacket, I am gearing up in full winter weather garb for wind chills around 0 today on top. Ben Bernanke did it! The master. The maestro. He saw the downside of announcing a taper to their $85B a month in asset purchases, but […]
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Date: December 24, 2013
Do NOT Taper
As difficult as it was at the time, quantitative easing (money printing) has now become an acceptable weapon in the Fed’s arsenal. Throughout my life, I was always taught, wrongly so, that printing money always leads to inflation and sometimes hyperinflation. And that all we needed to do was look at the Weimar Republic or Argentina or most recently Zimbabwe for examples of a currency gone rogue. When the Fed cut rates to essentially zero, critics and Doomsdayers came out […]
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Date: December 18, 2013
Big Week Ahead
For several weeks, I have warned about market sentiment at “rally killing levels”. Not a single thing has changed for the better in this department. The bulls are bulls and the bears are kinda, sorta bulls, at least through year-end. That continues to make me worried, but not enough given the calendar to take serious action. I want to preface my next comment by saying I absolutely do not believe we are on the precipice of another financial crisis like […]
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Date: December 16, 2013
Like a Broken Record
It’s getting boring, but essentially, the same comments apply. Stocks remain overbought and extended, and as we know, they can get more overbought and extended if all other indicators remain strong. That’s not the case right now and it wasn’t mid December, I would be an outright bear looking for a full fledged correction of at least 10%. As I have mentioned over and over, it is just very, very unusual to see a meaningful peak this time of year […]
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Date: December 10, 2013
Expert Year-End Tax Tips
Health Care Reform – Despite last-minute postponements in the effective date of some provisions of the Affordable Care Act (ACA), it’s important to determine now what impact this law will have on your business. By acting now, we can identify a long-term plan that anticipates the eventual rollout of the reporting and penalty provisions of the employer mandate. The Small Business Health Care Tax Credit can help offset the cost of coverage for many companies by providing a credit against […]
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Date: December 9, 2013
5 Straight Down Days
The Dow Jones is now down 5 straight days and it’s in a bull market. Without diving into the research, this has to be one of the mellowest 5 straight down days in history! I haven’t heard a single person express concern that this is the beginning of anything more significant on the downside. That’s worrisome in itself, especially if the calendar did not say December. As I have mentioned before here and in Street$marts, while market sentiment remains at […]
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Date: December 6, 2013
Even the Bears are Bulls… for Now
The stock market is tired, again. That seems like a phrase I have used often this year without much follow through. There have been many times in 2013 when the market had risen sharply and then looked just plain weary. Instead of correcting or even pulling back smartly, the stock market behaved like it does when it’s in a powerful bull trend; it’s consolidated sideways within a few percent of its high and then blasted off again. “Is this time […]
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Date: December 2, 2013
Happy Thanksgiving
At this time of Thanksgiving celebration our thoughts turn gratefully to you with appreciation. May the good things of life be yours in abundance, not only at Thanksgiving but throughout the coming year May peace & happiness always be with you, Paul Schatz Heritage Capital _____________________________________________________________ For each new morning with its Light For rest & shelter of the night For health & food, for love & friends, for Everything Thy goodness sends Ralph Waldo Emerson
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Date: November 27, 2013
LIVE from the Floor of the NYSE
I am going to be on CNBC’s Closing Bell on Tuesday, November 26, at 3:45 PM est live from the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. The topic will likely be the Dow’s recent assault on 16K and where it goes from here til year-end. As you already know, risk has increased substantially since mid October, but that doesn’t usually pick the exact top. Last week, I did a really enjoyable and informative interview on Fox Business discussing the […]
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Date: November 26, 2013
Fed Should NOT Taper!
Paul Schatz, president of Heritage Capital, typically lets it all hang out when expressing his views on markets, economics and sometimes even politics. An active asset allocator and adviser with 25 years’ experience, Mr. Schatz is on board with the Federal Reserve‘s quantitative-easing policy and would even like to see it extended beyond early next year, when the Fed is expected to start tapering its $85 billion in monthly bond purchases. InvestmentNews: Do you think it’s time for the Fed […]
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Date: November 25, 2013
Fox Business, Stocks, Bonds, Gold and Oil
I am going to be on Fox Business’ Markets Now at 1:05pm today (Wednesday) discussing the stock market’s recent assault on Dow 16,000, a target I gave several times here and in the media. Now that the market is there, what’s next? I can tell you that from my perspective, risk has increased substantially, but by no means should the bull market be over. Stocks are overdue for at least a pullback (2-8%), but probably more on the downside next […]
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Date: November 20, 2013
