First and foremost, I hope those of you in harm’s way made it through the storm okay and your lives are beginning to get back to some sense of normalcy. The New York Stock Exchange is scheduled to open at its normal time, 9:30am edt on Wednesday. That’s beyond incredible given the state of devastation in Manhattan, but especially lower Manhattan. I expect the commodities and bond markets to open as usual as well. But I think we all know […]
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As you may already know, the financial markets are closed today and are expected to remain closed through Tuesday. The office is officially closed, but I will be shuttling between the office and home as power allows. The best mode to communicate is via email. We have several internet providers and while we expect to have at least one always functional, it can never be guaranteed. If the storm is worse than expected locally we will operate from a satellite location […]
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After Friday’s carnage, the bulls fought off early weakness and pushed stocks to close at their highs around the flat level. Is the decline over? Anything is possible, but I continue to see more downside ahead with all major indices breaking their recent lows. A pre-election low remains in the cards and that would really catch folks off guard!
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I remember calling my parents from college when I heard the stock market had crashed 22.6% in a single day. My father had literally just opened another brokerage firm and even I knew this wouldn’t be good. I remember him telling me that it was the BEST time to open a new firm since they hadn’t brought clients over and built their book up yet. So not many folks were unhappy! I remember a buddy of mine who traded for a […]
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Here is the latest Street$marts: http://www.investfortomorrow.com/newsletter/CurrentStreet$marts20121015.pdf
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In the last Street$marts, I opined that the stock market should see at least another new 2012 high this year, but that we were long overdue for a pullback and a 2-8% decline should begin shortly. So far, all we have seen has been a 3% decline and many folks wonder if new highs are next. I think the healthiest thing would be for stocks to decline below the levels we saw last week and then mount an assault higher. That […]
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It’s not often that I am part of an interview where guests yell and I do to! Here is the video from the CNBC segment the other day on the Fed’s QE Unlimited. The next Street$marts will be out shortly with a long article on the Fed, ECB and BoJ’s money printing experiments. http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000119593&play=1
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Going to be on CNBC’s Closing Bell today at 3pm discussing our market outlook for the 4th and final quarter of 2012 along with some comments on Ben Bernanke’s “big” speech earlier today. We will have an extended article out this week on the Fed’s QE Unlimited and what it all means and if you should even care.
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Each year at this time, people ask, “Is it sell Rosh Hashanah or buy it?” The adage is definitely to sell Rosh Hashanah and buy Yom Kippur, which was derived many decades ago when Jews on Wall Street would sell their stocks before the High Holy Days began, not work over the holidays and then come back to work and buy. And even though, that trend has diminished over the years, there remains a negative bias. This year, it’s September […]
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Ben Bernanke & Co. delivered QE3 yesterday by announcing a plan to purchase mortgage backed securities (mortgages) for at least the next two months at roughly $40 billion per month. And the markets were delighted! The best analogy I can offer is that the markets are like crack addicts now and need their steady and regular fix of stimulus. As time goes on, a drug addict usually needs more and more drugs and that’s exactly how the markets are behaving. […]
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Markets breathed a collective sigh of relief after the German courts ruled “favorably”, allowing the European bailouts to continue. Apple unveiled its latest iPhone as the stock sits near all time highs. Both events did not inspire the markets to do much other than digest as they awaited the Fed’s 12:30pm announcement on Thursday. By the end of the week, the markets will have digested the ECB’s latest pledge to buy European debt in a HUGE way, Apple’s new phone, […]
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Here is the piece I did last Friday after the putrid jobs report. While the headline number may have indicated an increase of almost 100,000 net new jobs, the underlying data was awful. Additionally, while the unemployment rate may have fallen to 8.1% from 8.3%, it was primarily due to people leaving the workforce than people being hired. We already know that Bernanke & Co. are close to another round of money printing (QE) and this will likely push them […]
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The latest Street$marts is here… http://www.investfortomorrow.com/newsletter/CurrentStreet$marts20120905.pdf
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I am scheduled to be on FOX Business’ Markets Now at 1:30pm today discussing the historically low volatility in the markets as well as the roadmap to the election. If you looked for me on CNBC last Friday, Labor Day traffic was off the charts, deeming it impossible to get to the station on time. This week, I will be posting the two Yahoo Finance segments I did last week along with a new Street$marts issue. Several cracks in the pavement […]
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It’s been a while since I mentioned Apple, but the action of late deserves comment. After peaking in April with the broad market, the stock declined into May with the broad market. But when stocks declined further into early June, Apple did not follow suit by making a new low. Rather, it formed a higher low than it saw in May and that was the first clue that it was ready to rally again. This week, Apple made an all […]
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It seems like the markets, investors and media have been waiting forever for Ben Bernanke to give his annual speech from the Fed’s retreat in Jackson Hole WY. Lots of initial expectations have faded into much ado about nothing. I like that the stock market is showing weakness into the speech. That leaves ammunition for a potential move higher next week. Today’s decline was very orderly and began to restore a little worry in the markets. We don’t need all […]
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Unlike the summers of 2011, 2010, 2009, 2008, 2007 and 2006, the summer of 2012 has been very, very quiet. Volatility is at an historically low level. Volatility contraction leads to expansion and vice-versa. At some point, we are going to see a spike in volatility and that will shock the system. Later this week, Ben Bernanke will make his annual speech from the Fed’s retreat in Jackson Hole WY on Friday at 10:00am. While everyone will be on the […]
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New Street$marts is out chock full of tidbits with Paul Ryan, the Fed, ECB and stocks on their way to new 2012 highs! http://www.investfortomorrow.com/newsletter/CurrentStreet$marts20120816.pdf
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Following up from the Street$marts issue I published today (link to follow here on Friday), the bulls are stepping up here on the Dow, S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100, closing the day within striking distance of new highs for 2012. I expect that to occur over the coming days. Once that is achieved, I do not anticipate a blow off to the upside. Rather, I think the stock market will be within a few percent of peaking. Flies in the ointment […]
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Here is the link from Friday’s segment: http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000108518&play=1 Nothing has changed regarding the outlook for stocks. I think we are in a generally benign period for equities that has been following the typical presidential election year pattern of a Q1 rally, a springtime low and summer rally to a peak. If that continues to hold true, we should see another good bottom in September or October and then rally into year-end. I am sure the market will throw some doubt […]
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