First Bounce Fails. Bears in Control
In the last two posts I wrote about what I saw as the bulls having the ball early in the week with the bears taking over as the week proceeded. After a day and a half run by the bulls, they quickly gave up by lunch on Tuesday, allowing the bears to enjoy yet another 90% down day on Wednesday where more than 90% of the volume traded was in stocks going down on the day. As you know that […]
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Date: April 2, 2020
End of Month & Quarter. Bears Getting the Ball
To say this has been a long month would be the classic understatement! Four weeks ago, I was all packed and ready to head to Cabo San Lucas for a long weekend before going on to LA for work. Cabo has been on my bucket list since I used to watch The Love Boat on Saturday nights in the 1970s followed by Fantasy Island. I know. Kinda pathetic, but with only 13 channels, there wasn’t much on. From high to […]
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Date: March 31, 2020
Setting Up for the New Week
Last week was certainly one for the ages. It had everything a bull and bear would love and hate. March 23rd will go down as the internal or momentum low for this bear market, if that’s even the right term anymore. By internal low, I am referring to the bottom where the biggest swath of damage was done, where there was the most downside acceleration and panic. If there are subsequent lows in the coming weeks and months, I will […]
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Date: March 30, 2020
This is NOT 1931 But Still Too Many Looking for Easier Markets
The bull are back in town, at least from Tuesday through Thursday they were. If you even casually follow the markets, you have probably heard that it has been the biggest rally since 1931 after the sharpest decline in the least amount of days since, well, 1931. 1931 was in the heat of Great Depression part I (GDI) which is not an enviable analog. From 1929 to 1932, stocks lost 89% before rallying more than 400% into 1937 when Great […]
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Date: March 27, 2020
Bulls Working on Three Straight
Bulls Working on Three Straight On Sunday, I discussed the tiniest of green shoots and the scenario for stock market low on Monday followed by a rally. As I said at the time and since, I think it is “A” low, but perhaps not “THE” low. It is certainly a start and I am glad that the market responded to what was diminishing downside acceleration. It looks like those geniuses in Congress will finally pass a massive $2 trillion stimulus […]
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Date: March 26, 2020
Not “THE” Bottom – 2008 Not a Good Guide
Well Tuesday was fun! At least for the bulls. Monday pretty much bottomed on schedule and we saw unprecedented and massive buying off the lows. It was really across the board with some eye popping numbers, like 93% of the shares traded went into stocks going up on the day. They were more than 2500 net issues trading higher than lower which is more than 10:1. In a vacuum some people would say that these are new bull market initiating […]
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Date: March 25, 2020
TRUE Shock and Awe – We Need MORE from the Government
Target.com Before I launch into another one of my “brief” updates, I want to share something good that can help everyone. While there has been major hoarding of paper towels, toilet paper and sanitizing products at the stores, I understand that supply chains are stocked and will continue to deliver to stores. Once people have their fill of toilet paper, it’s unlikely they will need more anytime soon. I just don’t get this. Why toilet paper? Why bottled water when […]
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Date: March 24, 2020
The Tiniest of Green Shoots – Monday Not Looking Pretty
I want to begin by hoping everyone is staying safe and taking the necessary precautions when venturing out. I spent part of my work weekend mapping out a series of updates and then writing content. As you all know, I am not known for brevity so I thought it would be more beneficial to create a series rather than one very long newsletter. After this piece, I have a short one with some financial planning tips and a big picture […]
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Date: March 22, 2020
Looking for a Green Shoot Within a Week
Stocks have not been up on back to back days since the market peaked one month ago. As I mentioned the other day, we have seen 6 independent days of widespread panic as you can see in the chart below. The very first sign of even a tradable rally will likely occur when we finally see stocks able to rally for two straight days. That opportunity should come next week at some point. Once we see some sort of low […]
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Date: March 20, 2020
More Panic in the Air. Looking for Back to Back Rally Days.
I was hoping to post a number of indicators showing historic levels of bearishness and oversold readings in the stock market. However, when I started creating the charts, I couldn’t stop and I just gave up after making 18. Perhaps, I will offer again in a future post. As has been the case with every post, these are truly history making times, in the financial markets, the economy, global health, etc. The word “generational” doesn’t seem to do it justice. […]
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Date: March 18, 2020
