Where’s the Worry About Inverted Yield Curve and 10 Year Plunge?
While the past few days did nothing to clear up the four-week trading range, I still give the nod to the bulls as I have been saying for weeks. That’s regardless of whether stocks first poke through the bottom of the range or not. I do find it funny that yields on the 10 year bond hit fresh lows on Wednesday and stocks did not collapse as some media analysts have been selling as a tried and truism lately. One […]
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Date: August 29, 2019
I Didn’t See That Coming!
Last Friday, I wrote about not expecting much or really anything new from Jay Powell when he spoke at the Fed’s annual retreat in Jackson Hole. While I was spot on about that, I absolutely did not see the tweetstorm from the President, basically threatening economic martial law, let alone questioning if his appointed Fed Chair was an “enemy”. A bit of a head scratcher. All of that led to the markets becoming unglued the rest of the day, except […]
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Date: August 26, 2019
Powell’s Much Ado About Nothing While High Beta Percolates
Markets were on pause mode on Thursday as everyone awaited Fed Chair Jay Powell’s speech from Jackson Hole on Friday morning. Most of the stories I have read and media interviews I have seen had a very binary outcome from Powell’s speech. It was “all or none”. I don’t agree. I think he is going to straddle the line as much as possible and say very little in the way of new or market moving information.The key will be not […]
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Date: August 23, 2019
Bulls Look to Trap Bears – Semis the Key
The bulls had the chance. They could have really squeezed the bears. But they weren’t totally ready just yet. Tuesday’s afternoon selloff looked on the ugly side, but in reality it just kept the stock market in the same range it has been in all month. I want to see a daily close in the Dow above 26,500, S&P 500 above 2945 and NASDAQ 100 above 7800 to confirm the bull are readying a run to the old highs. These […]
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Date: August 21, 2019
Bulls Cede Control from Bears
Friday was a very good day for the bulls on the heels of a little reversal on Thursday that pierced the recent lows on the Dow, S&P 400 and Russell 2000. While I would have preferred the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 to have joined that party to run the weak money out of the market, it’s not the end of the world. You can see what I am talking about below in the lower right side of the chart […]
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Date: August 19, 2019
Bear Clowns Wrong, AGAIN – Dow 28,000 on the Way
The news backdrop certainly isn’t good. Trump adds tariffs. China threatens retaliation. Hong Kong protests. China readying to “invade”. Germany and Italy in recession. Yield curve inverts in U.S. Recession fears explode higher. All of this sounds so bad. Like there is no hope, just darkness. Yet stocks are merely 6.5% from an all-time high. 6.5%! I will go one step further. News like I mentioned more often occurs as the stock market gropes for a bottom than puts in […]
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Date: August 16, 2019
Nope. Not a Bear Market
As I continue to write about, while much or most of the price damage should be over, day to day volatility is not. Worries have shifted from tariffs and a trade war to civil unrest in Hong Kong which is also associated with China. Remember, regardless of the situation, there is always, always, always “major” news surrounding a market’s attempt to bottom. That’s just how it is. It seems like every single time stocks pullback at least 5%, I get […]
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Date: August 12, 2019
Stocks Thrashing Around for a Bottom But Other Markets Hold Clues
Volatility happens in both directions. That has been the theme all week. Anyone who has bought strength or sold weakness has been left holding the bag. And I don’t think volatility is over, but much or most of the price damage should be. Worst case, as I have written, Dow 25,000 or so could be seen. The reward is a move to 28,000. With stocks thrashing around trying to find a low, I often look at other markets for signs […]
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Date: August 9, 2019
Hold on to Your Hats
As you know, volatility rarely builds slowly. It typically happens all at once. I went to bed last night and saw overnight trading indicating a lower open by 100 Dow points. When I woke up, that had shifted to up 100 Dow points. I showered, got dressed and ate breakfast. The Dow was then indicated to open lower by 300 points as global bond yields collapsed. Why do we care about this? Lower bond yields are mostly indicative of weakness […]
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Date: August 7, 2019
Here We Go Again
It’s been a tough three days for the bulls that is about to get worse as China retaliated for Trump’s tariffs with a series of their own. Their currency, the yuan, also fell below what analysts have deemed “critical” levels. It has long been argued that by weakening their currency, China has been able to partially offset the impact of the tariffs. I won’t get into another diatribe about how I detest and hate using tariffs as part of economic […]
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Date: August 5, 2019
