April Employment Report Turns the Tide
One of my long held beliefs is that it really doesn’t matter what the news is, only how the markets react. In almost 27 years of trading, investing and watching, I have seen it too many where the news is so powerful in one direction, yet the market reaction is the exact opposite. Hence, the terms “buy the rumor, sell the news” or “sell the rumor, buy the news”. And sometimes, the news is as expected, yet markets see a […]
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Date: May 12, 2015
Here We Go Again… Jobs Friday
Wasn’t it just yesterday that we were talking about the monthly employment report? Well, we’re here again! With back to back weak reports blamed on “weather”, stocks are set up to rally on a good report that gets past weather and a bad but not atrocious report that blames “weather”. It must be nice to have the “weather” fall back on. I may have to try that with clients. Credit a good quarterly report on our skills, but blame a […]
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Date: March 7, 2014
The “All Important” Employment Report
Today is Jobs Friday and the pundits are usually out in force predicting the number of non-farm payroll jobs created. That’s one area I usually steer clear of as it is probably the most volatile, inconsistent and unpredictable economic number of the month. What’s even more futile is forecasting the market’s reaction, which is sometimes a head scratcher. Last month’s number was a complete and utter disaster, but the stock market barely shrugged and tested the highs the following week. […]
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Date: February 7, 2014
Bears Take a Breather
Here is the link to the segment I did on Fox Business the other day with Lori Rothman and Adam Shapiro. This pretty much spells out what I have written here regarding my thoughts on the market this quarter. Thanks to Adam and Lori for letting me articulate my forecast. http://video.foxbusiness.com/v/3151668123001/ingredients-for-ending-a-bull-market/#sp=show-clips Stock market action over the past two days gives a glimmer of hope to the bulls for a short-term rally. I do not believe the final bottom is in as […]
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Date: February 6, 2014
Employment Report Key to Very Short-Term
On Friday morning at 8:30am the monthly jobs report will be out. This has become the most watched and heavily anticipated economic report of the month. Over the past year or so it has been the bulls’ ATM machine as the vast majority of those days have been up and very easy on the bulls with few meaningful losses. The major stock market indices are in a very interesting position heading into Friday. Since Christmas they have essentially gone nowhere, […]
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Date: January 10, 2014
Big Jobs Friday
The biggest economic report of the month is due out at 8:30am on Friday. It’s become even more closely watched if that’s possible because of the Fed’s focus on the unemployment rate for scaling back their massive bond purchases and then raising interest rates. It is widely forecasted that tomorrow’s number will be good to strong. What becomes very interesting for me is how the market would view better economic news. Is good news still good news or will we […]
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Date: August 2, 2013
Jobs Report Overreaction
Last week on CNBC I commented on how investors and the media are way too concerned about one less than expected jobs report from Friday, just like they were way too celebratory last month. While I am glad we raised cash a few weeks, I plan to redeploy that this quarter into weakness. Give a look… http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000083018&play=1
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Date: April 16, 2012
