Boring Fed Day On Tap
Model for the Day As with every Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement day, there is a model for the stock market to follow pre and post announcement. Certain environments have very strong tendencies while others do not. Six meetings ago was one of the rare times where the models strongly called for a rally on statement day which was correct as well as a decline a few days later which was also correct. Today, as with most statement days, […]
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Date: July 26, 2017
Stocks Looking Down After Rate Hike
Everything happened as expected on Wednesday. Stocks stayed in a tight range until 2PM. The Fed raised rates. Yellen spoke about reducing the balance sheet. And the bullish Fed trend was significantly muted. Given how stocks closed, there is a very short-term trend which indicates lower prices today and possibly into next week. However, with the stock market set to open lower, the opportunity to take advantage is likely gone. The Dow is now the leading index and that’s not […]
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Date: June 15, 2017
Fed to Hike Rates Today In Spite of Falling Inflation. Dow 23,000 Next
Model for the Day As with every Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement day, there is a model for the stock market to follow pre and post announcement. Certain environments have very strong tendencies while others do not. Five meetings ago was one of the rare times where the models strongly called for a rally on statement day which was correct as well as a decline a few days later which was also correct. Today, as with most statement days, […]
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Date: June 14, 2017
Fed to Hike Rates But All Not Well
Model for the Day As with every Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement day, there is a model for the stock market to follow pre and post announcement. Certain environments have very strong tendencies while others do not. Two meetings ago was one of the rare times where the models strongly called for a rally on statement which was correct as well as a decline a few days later which was also correct. Today, the upside edge is just outside […]
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Date: December 14, 2016
All Signs Point to a Horrifically Wrong Decision by Yellen & the Fed
FINALLY, or YET AGAIN, it’s FOMC statement day. Unlike every meeting since 2007, I do believe the Fed is wrongly going to raise short-term interest rates for the first time since 2006. Since 2008, my thesis has been and continues to be that the Fed should not raise interest rates until the other side of the next recession. This is your “typical” post-financial crisis recovery that’s very uneven. It teases and tantalizes on the upside and frustrates and terrorizes on […]
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Date: December 16, 2015
