Don the Crash Helmets! It’s Bloody and Ugly Out There!!
By now, everyone knows that the Dow Jones Industrials fell by 1000 points last week, including a 531 point down day to close the week. More selling lies ahead in the short-term. It’s getting ugly. There’s blood in the streets. Sell what you can not what you want. Margin calls are coming. Maximum pain thresholds are being hit for the individual investor. Panic is here! Before I opine on what it means, let’s put it all in perspective. 531 points […]
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Date: August 24, 2015
My Oh My… The Music Has Stopped
If you listen to the media or have an active Twitter feed about the markets, you would think stocks have literally collapsed into the depths of a bear market. We MUST be down at least 10-15%! Yet as I type this, the S&P 500 has pulled back all of 6%. It’s a little more than half way to the 10% correction level.The Dow hit my initial downside target of sub 17,000 and the S&P 500 is on its way to […]
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Date: August 21, 2015
Two Market Scenarios for the Quarter
In the last issue of Street$marts, I wrote about stocks being in a “murky” period for the next few weeks. I am going to pat myself on the back and say it has certainly looked “murky” since early October although I wish I had been more aggressive in taking action. The dark clouds have recently dissipated and the sun is starting to pop out. Once the decline began, it looked like the second half of October would see a low and that’s […]
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Date: October 21, 2014
So Far So Good!
Just two ago, I wrote about the stock market “groping” for a bottom and laid out a scenario for that to begin on Wednesday. The beaten down Russell 2000 was the key as it very quietly had been outperforming the market for three days. That behavior is not what you typically see if a crash was unfolding. Our indicators and systems backed up my own thoughts and our equity strategies went to maximum exposure at the close on Wednesday. When […]
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Date: October 17, 2014
Stock Market Groping for a Low
If you woke up this morning, turned on the computer or TV and saw another Texas healthcare worker with Ebola, European markets under siege yet again and our own stock market futures in collapse, you probably did not feel so great. Anxiety? Panic? As the morning progressed and our stock market opened, your saw an immediate mini panic with the Dow down 370. At the same time, the 10 year treasury note’s yield absolutely and totally collapsed under 2%. That […]
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Date: October 15, 2014
Who Turned the Lights Out… Again
Yesterday, I wanted to see what leadership emerged after Wednesday’s big surge and more importantly, I wanted definite confirmation from the plan vanilla high yield (junk) bond mutual funds that the canary wasn’t dying. That was before the open. I have to say that the depth and tenaciousness of Thursday’s decline definitely caught me off guard. While giving back 25% or even 50% of the big rally would not have out of the ordinary, losing all of it certainly was. […]
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Date: October 10, 2014
History Says 15% Chance of 8-11% Decline Right Now
Today (Wednesday) I am excited to head to New York City for a day full of media (and a tiny bit of shopping). My first stop is with the good folks at Yahoo Finance to create two or three segments on what’s hot now. I know for sure we will do one on market bubbles which should be controversial and interesting. I imagine there will be one about the bull market or Fed and then one on the hot story […]
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Date: October 8, 2014
Reading the Short-Term Tea Leaves
To reiterate a comment I think I have made each and every week for at least three years, the bull market may be old and wrinkly, but it’s not dead. It continues to be the most disavowed and hated bull market of the modern investing era and that’s why it will live on. On an almost daily basis, another “market professional” comes out of the woodwork on why stocks should not be at these levels. Several good friends of mine […]
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Date: August 12, 2014
Getting Anywhere?
Early Monday I wrote about the market setting up for a bounce. And that was certainly the case on Monday. Tuesday, however, was a different story as stocks gave back all of Monday’s gains and then some. Wednesday’s solid action, once again, puts the stock market on bounce alert. I keep using the word “bounce” instead of rally because it looks like there needs to be some more work on the downside before the current pullback wraps up. With each […]
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Date: August 7, 2014
Monday is Bounce Day
After some normal volatility on Friday, the bulls held their own and are positioned to see some green as the trading week opens. There are two scenarios I am watching here. The first is the lows hit on Friday. If the major indices close below those levels sooner than later, we should see some trap door, elevator shaft, immediate selling. That’s the more bearish path. Scenario number two has the market bouncing for a few days and then rolling over […]
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Date: August 4, 2014
