Bears Stepped It Up
For most of September, I discussed the very negative seasonal period that ended on September 30. Remember, poor seasonals with strongly negative short-term trends from the Fed and options expiration usually just provide a headwind or accelerant to a market move already in place. The second half of September was certainly a poor showing for the bulls, which is part of the reason October began so weak. For those who watch the charts, the Dow and S&P 500 visited their […]
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Date: October 2, 2014
Beware of Most Negative Seasonals of the Year
For the past three weeks I have written about the need for a short-term pullback in stocks. I have been and remain positive on the intermediate and long-term view for the stock market. Remember, pullbacks can come by stocks going sideways for a period of time or by price declining enough to entice buyers back in. In the major indices we saw a split pullback with the Dow, S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 going sideways while the S&P 400 and […]
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Date: September 22, 2014
Textbook Consolidation Ends
Late last month, I wrote a piece concluding that stocks looked a bit tired at all time highs. Nothing terribly damaging, but they were in need of some rest. Routine, normal and healthy pullbacks can come in different forms. The easiest way for stocks to digest is to decline 2-5% fairly quickly, while another way is to see sideways movement with a slightly downward tilt for a period of weeks. The Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 all saw […]
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Date: September 19, 2014
Headwinds Abound This Week
Almost all markets finished on a sour note last week and that spilled over to begin the new week. While I have written about stocks needing a short-term breather, I was surprised that treasury bonds could not get a lift as stocks weakened. In fact, both stocks and bonds peaked the same week, but bonds sold off more significantly, something that is unusual. The major stock market indices certainly look like they want at least a little rally, but the […]
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Date: September 16, 2014
Don’t Fall Asleep
Over the past few weeks I have written that stocks seem “tired” or “in need of a pullback or consolidation.” Remember, stock market digestion can occur two different ways; one by price declining 2-5% or price simply moves sideways for an extended period. Right now, it looks like we are getting the latter as the S&P 500 has essentially gone nowhere for more than two weeks. While all this boredom was occurring, we had a weak employment report, Russia/Ukraine cease […]
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Date: September 8, 2014
Stocks Looking a Little Tired
The bull market remains alive and reasonably healthy. I am still long-term bullish. I am still fairly bullish over the intermediate-term. With that out of the way, stocks are looking a little weary at all time highs, which should not be totally unexpected. The market has powered higher all month and started to struggle a bit of late. At least for now, I think risk equals reward or perhaps even slightly outweighs reward. To refresh the rally, stocks can either […]
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Date: August 27, 2014
