China Again
A few weeks ago, I published a piece about the Shanghai having further to fall. Chinese Market Collapse Not Over Last night, Chinese stocks saw their largest decline since February 27, 2007, a day I vividly remember as I was running money for a hedge fund in Boston and about to leave for a week’s ski vacation in Utah to celebrate a belated 40th birthday with a bunch of friends. At that time, the prevailing sentiment was that the Asian […]
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Date: July 27, 2015
Q3 Stock Market Scenarios Unfolding Nicely
Last week after the Dow plunged 350 points and began to bounce, I offered the two most probable scenarios for stocks, both of which included new multi-month lows before any real rally would begin. Stock Market Scenarios for Q3 My conclusion was, “just because we saw extreme readings on Monday doesn’t mean that the ultimate low was seen. I would argue against that. Monday’s snowball day was an important piece, but far from the final piece. Wash out readings like […]
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Date: July 10, 2015
Greece = Opportunity. Stock Market Scenarios for Q3
With Monday’s blog and Street$marts being on the long side, I decided to wait a day to offer commentary on how the markets’ reaction to the impending default by Greece, bank closure, referendum, etc. would impact the new month and quarter. To reiterate an important market tenet of mine which has been around for decades, it’s not what the news is, but how the markets react. We are constantly reminded of that with economic news. Is good news bad news […]
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Date: July 1, 2015
More Nonsense with Greece
Just wondering aloud if a single week can go by without any talk about will Greece or won’t Greece exit from the Euro. They are already in default, and historically, they have been in default more than they have been current, yet they behave as though they are in full control. Maybe they are! You know the old adage that if you owe the bank $100,000 and can’t pay, you have a problem. If you owe the bank $100,000,000, the […]
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Date: June 22, 2015
And the Tea Leaves Were Right
Earlier this week, after weeks and almost months of continuous concerns about the bulls’ ability to step up, I wrote about the short-term tea leaves indicating a rally beginning by Tuesday or Wednesday. The bulls definitely did their part so far this week with the small and mid cap indices scoring all-time highs and the NASDAQ 100 close to fresh highs. The Dow and the S&P 500 have rallied, but are still being dragged up by their counterparts. Software, consumer […]
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Date: June 19, 2015
Short-Term Tea Leaves Say Bulls About to Step Up
The stock market remains on the defensive as I have written about for some time, not that this is a repeat of 2008 or even 2011. It’s not even your garden variety 10%+ correction. Stocks remain in the range they have been in for most of 2015. From a bullish perspective, it’s a good intermediate-term sign that after the huge run up we have seen, the bears can’t even muster a 10% correction. From the bearish perspective, stocks have stalled […]
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Date: June 16, 2015
Selling the Bounce
Let’s start with my conclusion and then work backwards. Nothing has changed over the past few days, weeks and even months. I still view stocks positively the farther out you go. The short-term remains murky, uncertain, questionable and any other adjective that is less than flat out bullish. One of my chief concerns, sentiment, has begun to reset itself at least to neutral from the overly enthusiastic category. Sentiment surveys have improved as have the put/call ratios in the options […]
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Date: June 10, 2015
Short-Term Murkiness Continues
While I continue to be intermediate and long-term positive on the stock market, there remains a small cloud over the markets in the short-term. That usually means a pullback, which equals weakness to the tune of 3-7%. Market sentiment has become slightly less bullish, but not to the degree where I believe the next launch to all-time highs can begin. Recent price action shows the S&P 500, S&P 400 and NASDAQ 100 poking to all-time highs and then being rejected […]
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Date: April 28, 2015
Q2 Begins Where Q1 Left Off
I hope you all enjoyed April Fool’s Day. I know I definitely did and the emails, calls and texts continue rolling in. Even the media called for an interview about my new gig! 🙂 The first quarter and the month of March rolled in like a bear and both rolled out like a bear, meaning that the bears had the upper hand at least in the short-term. During the middle of the quarter, the bulls were in firm control. The […]
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Date: April 2, 2015
Goldilocks
The stock market continues its Goldilocks behavior of not too hot and not too cold. Two steps up and half or one step back. On Monday, markets were a little too warm early on and that should lead to a little cooling over the coming week or so. It should be just another small pullback in an ongoing uptrend in the context of major bull market. Until proven otherwise, any and all weakness is a buying opportunity. On the sector […]
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Date: March 24, 2015
