OUCH!
The bears absolutely mauled the seasonal tailwinds I mentioned yesterday. Remember, seasonal trends are just helpers and usually do not begin or accelerate a trend. Nonetheless, Monday was very ugly for the bulls and Tuesday looks to be equally nasty or worse. This is unusual behavior for Thanksgiving week, but not without precedent. The bulls are now in “hope” mode as liquidity is beginning to dry up and they will need a herculean effort to accomplish some time kind Turnaround […]
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Date: November 20, 2018
Seasonal Tailwind This Week
Stocks begin the holiday-shortened Thanksgiving week with an upside reversal last Thursday and a little bit of follow through on Friday. Stocks continue the process of repairing the internal damage done by the October correction before assaulting Dow 27,000 in the New Year. However, I want to be clear; at this point I do not have strong conviction that last week’s reversal is the final nail in the market’s bottom. I can still see two diverging paths to new highs […]
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Date: November 19, 2018
Bulls Making a Stand
Thursday saw upside reversals in all of the major indices which means that stocks opened lower, traded a little lower and then rocketed higher into the close. That should comfort the bulls, at least into next week as a solid seasonal tailwind blows into the holiday. Is it possible that we just saw the final low on Thursday? Sure. It’s POSSIBLE. I am not pounding the table with high conviction like I would or will if stocks revisit the lows […]
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Date: November 16, 2018
THE Bottom Right Now or Soon. ALL Paths Lead to Dow 27,000
Last week, I wrote about the chart below, Battle Lines Drawn, which had one more horizontal, blue line at the time. That was exceeded on the upside, so I removed it. We are left with the upper blue line that once exceeded and closed above will be late confirmation that the bottom is in and new highs are on the way. That’s going to take some time to develop. Stocks are at the first blue line which creates an opportunity. […]
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Date: November 14, 2018
Bulls on Shaky Ground Today
After a fast and furious rally by the bulls, we saw a little change on Friday as “too far, too fast” became my theme. I thought the best case would be for a pause to refresh or some backing and filling. That appears to be the case as the new week begins. I am very keenly watching for the market’s reaction if and when it gives back all of last Wednesday’s huge, post-election gains. That should speak volumes about the […]
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Date: November 12, 2018
Pause to Refresh
I had such a great time joining the good folks at Yahoo Finance on Market Movers yesterday morning, especially since I stayed put in my office and joined via Skype. I didn’t think it was possible to look worse than I do on TV without makeup, but yes, I got scared watching the replay! After stocks huge sure on Wednesday, I thought that the market would pause to digest or refresh, perhaps back and fill. The Dow had been leading, […]
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Date: November 9, 2018
Battle Lines Drawn
The bears made their first stand of the nascent rally on Friday as very early strength was immediately sold. The best thing about this is that we now have a few common sense lines in the sand drawn to determine short-term direction. You can see below that the most recent price is smack in the middle of the four lines. A CLOSE above or below the two closest lines to price will likely create a quick and sharp move in […]
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Date: November 5, 2018
Stocks Peaking on Amazing Jobs Report
What a volatile, interesting and fun week it has been. I am about ready for some time to myself although I do board a flight on Sunday afternoon for a quick trip to Chicago. Deep dish pizza, here I come! My plan coming in on Friday was to look for another big up day for the bulls and then begin to take some risk off the table, book profits or however you like to call reducing exposure to stocks. It […]
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Date: November 2, 2018
Calling THE Bottom and the Bear Market that Lies Ahead
Before I dive in headfirst I want to start by saying that there are more bold and brash comments in this update, especially after the charts, than any piece I have written in a very long time. None of it is political. Here is a taste and I respectfully ask you to read this update to the end. It spells out some very detailed scenarios for the bull market and impending bear market. Let me state this very emphatically. If […]
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Date: November 1, 2018
Why Have Stocks Been Going Down
This correction has been very fast and furious. I talked about it yesterday and how downside momentum was beginning to wane. The old saying that stocks take the stairs to the tops and the elevator to the bottom definitely rings true here. This decline has been relentless with strong wave after strong wave of selling. I can spend a lot of time debating why stocks have declined, but does it really matter? The stock market usually discounts economic activity 6-9 […]
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Date: October 31, 2018
