Tag: stock market scenario

How Can a High Net-Worth Individual Fortify Investments?

These can be challenging times for investors. As I’ve mentioned before, the classic 60/40 investment portfolio is not the reliable go-to it was for decades. The economy and stock market both tend to be cyclical, so they should improve over time. However, that probably won’t happen overnight. This is why having a well-diversified investment portfolio is always a good idea. What follows are some additional tips to consider.  This article considers these topics:  Resist the urge to sell when the […]   Read More
Date: December 27, 2022

Behavioral Finance: Why Kevin, Janet, Bruce and Carrie Made the Investment Decisions (and Mistakes) They Did

I recently attended a workshop where I had the opportunity to speak with several investors. Four stand out in my memory for the mistakes they made. Do any of them sound a bit like you?   Kevin: Aversion to Risk Kevin, in his mid-50s, had always been afraid of the stock market. Most of his retirement money was tied up in fixed income securities, predominantly a mutual fund composed of Treasury bonds and notes. He did invest a little (about […]   Read More
Date: December 27, 2021

Why Mike’s Conservative Investment Strategy Can Be Very Risky

A new client, whom I’ll call “Mike,” recently came to me with questions about his investments. In his mid-forties, Mike had always been wary of losing money in the stock market. Apparently, he would rather have avoided losing $1 than making $5. But Mike knew something was wrong, as the value of his portfolio had remained stagnant for almost 10 years.  He and I had a long talk. We identified several defects in his investment “strategy” that prevented him from […]   Read More
Date: December 20, 2021

This Week is Usually Down

Friday saw another one of those “ugly on a chart” afternoon reversals as Apple announced a fresh round of store closings in the states that recently reopened. I am sure a lot of people saw the re-openings as easy and as expected, but the truth is much different. It is going to be lumpy and uneven with varying degrees of success and failure. One thing remains a certainty in my humble opinion; the U.S. economy will never be completely shut […]   Read More
Date: June 22, 2020

Sentiment Percolating

Starting in the middle of November 2019, stock market sentiment went from bullish to giddy and then greedy before all was said and done. It had done that before in early 2017, 2018, mid-2011 and clearly during the Dotcom Bubble in 1999 and 2000. Sentiment alone is not a reason for markets to turn although we usually see that ingredient at extremes. Sentiment is also not a perfect timing tool. Remember the old adage that markets can stay irrational longer […]   Read More
Date: June 1, 2020

More Good News as the Trading Range Breaks Higher

As I mentioned in Friday’ post, not much happened last week after Monday’s sharply higher open. Stocks essentially treaded water and bullishly digested the gains. You could also say that has been the case since mid-April in the major indices with the exception of the NASDAQ 100 which is in a world of its own. Below is the Dow Industrials and you can see the trading range I have been discussing bound by the two horizontal blue lines. A few comments […]   Read More
Date: May 26, 2020

Trading Range Continues. Bonds Thumped. Bulls to Win Today.

As I have been writing about, until proven otherwise which would mean I am wrong, the major stock indices with the exception of the NASDAQ 100 hit a ceiling last week and appear to be in a trading range bound by Dow 25,000 and roughly 22,000. On the S&P 500 that amounts to 2930 and 2630. The NASDAQ 100 is trading like it’s 1999 and all is very well in the world. The longer the range continues, the more significant […]   Read More
Date: May 7, 2020

Warren Buffet Hangover as Bulls Prepare

The bears had a nice close to last week and to begin the new month. I posted a number of studies regarding May and the next 6 months on Friday. The overall theme is that the longer we look out into the future, the more positive the studies. The shorter we look, at least as of last week, the less positive they get. However, in the really short-term, if today is down, which would be the third straight down day, […]   Read More
Date: May 4, 2020

May Begins With a Number of Studies as the Bulls Get Knocked a Bit

On Friday, the stock market technically begins the sometimes “dreaded” sell in May and go away period which last until October 31. This seasonal trend has a questionable track record the more recent you look. However, in years where January through April has been down already, its record has merit. I will touch more on this in the upcoming issue of Street$marts due out shortly. The first trading day of May has an enviably bullish track record, not so much […]   Read More
Date: May 1, 2020

Bulls Seizing the Moment – Junk Bonds Not

On Monday I wrote about the Lines in the Sand that were drawn for both bull and bear.  On Tuesday we saw the bulls celebrate with a breach to the upside that could not hold until the close. Today, the bulls are testing the upward bounds again, likely with very different results by the time the day ends. What’s been eating at me lately is high yield bonds as you can see below. They were behaving “fine” until the Fed […]   Read More
Date: April 29, 2020