Early Warning System & January Barometer
With the first five days of January officially in the books, the Early Warning System (EWS) pioneered by Yale Hirsch is flashing a positive sign for the rest of January as well as 2015. The theory says that as go the first five trading days of the new year, so goes January. And as goes January, so goes the year. With help from my friend Carter Worth of Stern Agee (Carter did the heavy lifting and I peppered him with […]
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Date: January 12, 2015
Another “V” for the Bulls… Must Run from Here
As I have written before, since mid 2012 the stock market has seen more “V” bottoms than in all previous years combined. “V” bottoms went from being very rare to becoming the norm. With each successive low, investors are changing their buying behavior to accept the “new” behavior as the norm. In my view, this is setting up the masses for yet another 2000-2002 or 2008 style wealth decimation. So now that we have yet another confirmed “V” bottom, which […]
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Date: January 9, 2015
Waiting for Warm & Fuzzy
The “traditional” Santa Claus Rally ended in the red for the stock market and that’s not a warm and fuzzy sign heading into 2015. Through the first 3+ days into 2015, small cap stocks are not leading their large cap brethren and that’s not a warm and fuzzy sign. Stocks sold off hard to begin the year and that hasn’t been a warm and fuzzy sign. Today, the bull are trying to make a stand after seeing yet another 5% […]
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Date: January 7, 2015
First “Key” Day of 2015
It’s only the second trading day of 2015, but I am going to get a little dramatic and say for the short-term, it’s somewhat of a key day. The second trading day of the year is seasonally a very strong one. Given the 1%+ down day to end 2014, there is a trend to see significant strength during the first week of the New Year to counter that unusual down day. Today is also the end of what many refer […]
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Date: January 5, 2015
Don’t Count the Bulls Out to Begin 2015
Welcome to 2015! Wishing you and your family a very Happy, Healthy, Safe and Peaceful New Year! Stocks finished 2014 with a whimper rather than a bang as the lack of liquidity allowed sellers to move prices sharply lower on Wednesday. The last two days of December have become somewhat of a headwind lately, but that weakness is supposed to be reversed next week. As bullish as I was over the past few weeks on the small cap Russell 2000, […]
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Date: January 1, 2015
Homestretch
This is it. Three more trading days and 2014 will be in the books as they say. Just 8 trading days ago, the bears were beating their chests yet again about how the bull market ended or the stock market was in 10%+ correction or a whole host of other nonsense. I wrote it right at the October bottom and I did the same thing 8 days ago; the bull market is old yet alive and weakness should be bought […]
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Date: December 28, 2014
Santa Ain’t Messin’ Around
The stock market bottom this week wasn’t as pessimism laden as the one in October, but it was certainly fun nonetheless! And just like I did in October, I gave readers a few days notice to prepare for the low. Frankly, this was easy. While it was a slightly soft seasonal time, the market sold off a few percent more than it should have which is part of the reason the rebound has been so robust. December is a haven […]
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Date: December 19, 2014
Santa Claus is Starting to Call… Right on Time
Over the past few weeks as stocks declined I remained firm in my forecast that Santa Claus would pay the markets a visit as he typically does in bull markets. One by one, I heard from people why this year was different, why stocks are already in a bear market, why oil would consume the market. I targeted this week and early next for the low as history suggests and for the rally to begin. Yesterday was also a very […]
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Date: December 18, 2014
Fed & Yellen on Hot Seat Today
The Federal Open Market Committee (Fed or FOMC) concludes their two day and final meeting of 2014 on Wednesday with their announcement at 2pm and subsequent press conference with Janet Yellen. Interest rates will not be raised. Market watchers will parse the statement to see if Yellen & Co. remove the “considerable time” phrase for low interest rates from the release, signaling that rates may increase sooner than later. Should those words continue in the statement, I would expect stocks […]
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Date: December 17, 2014
Santa Claus Rally Just Around Corner
Big picture. Late October through mid January is the strongest seasonal period to invest in stocks. That’s fact. Over a similar but slightly different period, the semiconductors are the strongest group to invest in. Just since the October bottom, they are up 27% and I am very glad we own them in our sector program. They made up for some crummy positions we have held during the same time. Early December shows some slightly negative seasonal headwinds, like we are […]
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Date: December 10, 2014
