Apple’s Collapse as the Market Bears Reign
Just over a week ago and one day after most of the major market indices peaked, I posted a piece entitled Reigning in Bullishness where for the first time since the rally began in February, I tempered my enthusiasm. I couched my negative comments with more sanguine words that I absolutely do not believe the bull market has topped. This looks like a routine, normal and healthy pullback, but also the deepest decline since the rally began. It’s been a […]
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Date: April 29, 2016
The “Secret” Reason Yellen Doesn’t Want to Raise Rates. Special Fed Meeting Update
I believe there is a “secret” behind the Fed being slow to hike short-term interest rates. I will get to that in a minute. Today’s Meeting Let’s start with non-controversial items first. The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee concludes their two day meeting with an announcement at 2 pm that interest rates will not change today. That’s what the markets are expecting. There has been all kinds of hot air coming from several Fed officials that rates need to rise […]
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Date: April 27, 2016
Apple & The Fed. A Volatile Concoction…
The FOMC begins their regularly scheduled two-day meeting today. Typically, stocks are quiet with a small upward bias. However, Apple reports earnings after the bell and that almost always provides some movement as the tech behemoth has an outsized weighting in the S&P 500, Dow and NASDAQ 100. I have absolutely no opinion on how their earnings will be and I really only care about how the market reacts anyway. The fact that it has sold off into earnings gives […]
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Date: April 26, 2016
Reigning in Bullishness
It has certainly been one sensational run for the bulls since February 11th. Hopefully, you have not only enjoyed it but profited from it as well. I know I could not have pounded the table any harder at the bottom to buy at a time when CNBC and Fox Business only paraded the doom and gloom crowd with calls for a new bear market and a repeat of 2008. And while I do not believe the final highs are in, […]
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Date: April 21, 2016
Crushing the Doubters
I know I must sound like a broken record, but boy, have the bulls been tough to fight. Just when the bears think a deeper pullback has started, the bulls step up again and power stocks higher. After an unexpected turnaround on Monday from the early weakness after the lack of OPEC production cuts, stocks are pausing once again. Earnings season is in full swing and we have heard time and time again how this is the worst earnings since […]
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Date: April 20, 2016
All-Time Highs On the Way, But…
After a 24 hour trip to Houston, I am happily back home.Thanks to the Houston MTA for hosting me and inviting me to speak at their chapter meeting. I really enjoyed my time there. It was also good to see clients, colleagues and friends, all in 24 hours! When I look back over my posts since the bottom, there has been one common theme. The bulls are in control. Higher prices to follow. Expect brief and mild pullbacks. Continue to […]
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Date: April 14, 2016
Give the Bears a Break
Last Friday, I wrote about stocks looking a little sleepy, but that higher prices would eventually prevail. For the 6th time since the rally began on February 11th, the stock market is pulling back. It’s normal, healthy and expected. No need to panic. The bears should be out in force shortly with calls of another correction or resumption of the bear market. But let’s give them a break; they have had so little to celebrate for almost two months. The […]
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Date: April 5, 2016
History Says Higher, but Stocks a Little Sleepy
Stocks ended the quarter just shy of fresh highs and booked a huge 6%+ return for March. Historically, that portends more upside over the first week of April. Speaking of April, it is one of the strongest months of the year. Most of the long-term studies I have done and read indicate higher prices 6 and 12 months out. On the flip side, stocks have looked a little sleepy over the past two days and today is the monthly release […]
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Date: April 1, 2016
Bye Bye March & Q1
Last day of the month. Last day of the quarter. What a ride it’s been although if you fell asleep on New Year’s Eve and woke up today, you might conclude it was a quiet three months with the Dow up a few hundred and points and the S&P up 1%. As we all know, it was anything but dull. March is on pace to return more than 6% after an historically weak start to the year. This kind of […]
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Date: March 31, 2016
And the 5th Pullback since The Bottom Ends
On March 21, I penned a piece calling for the 5th pullback since the rally began. I used words like “brief” and “mild” to describe what I thought was coming before the next rally began. As with the previous four pullbacks, all we saw was essentially two days of slight weakness before the bulls roared back. And roar back they did. Right before Janet Yellen released her speech on Tuesday, I did an interview with CNBC India regarding the Fed […]
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Date: March 30, 2016
