While I did not see the magnitude of the January decline, I did call the January bottom in real time as the internal or momentum low. From there, I saw a reflex rally for a few weeks that would be followed by another decline to revisit or retest the same levels seen in January before a much better, stronger and more long-lasting could begin. While the bears screamed about further collapse and bought more bottled water and canned goods, I […]
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In the past few issues, I discussed a widely followed price analog to 2008. Countless times, I have pounded the table that 2016 is ABSOLUTELY NOT 2008. Price was just following that path, but I expected the analog to break down much sooner than later. Over the past few weeks, it certainly has as you can see below. The January decline in 2016 mirrored that of 2008, almost to the day, as did the rally out of the January low. […]
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During strong initiations off a bottom, price just powers higher seemingly day after day without much pause. The most beaten down stocks rally the most and the bears claim it’s all “short covering” and doomed to fail. But it doesn’t. Slowly,one by one, the bears stop disavowing the rally and become silent. Each short-term overbought condition hears some renewed calls for more downside, but typically there’s nothing more than a few day pullback of 1-3%. Since the current rally began […]
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One of the great things about flying JetBlue is that every seat has a TV so I was able to watch the GOP debate on one channel and the UCONN men’s game on another as I flew to Reno. Boy was that debate painful! Did anyone learn anything new? It is clear to me that the Rubio and Cruz camps got together and agreed to a moratorium on attacking each other so they could collectively attack Donald Trump. They must […]
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Late last week, I wrote in Another 7% in the Cards that stocks were far from done going up. If you missed that post, it’s a good one to go back an peruse. That’s the same message I offered a day after the bottom in February and I have updated the S&P 500’s chart below. With Tuesday’s huge rally to open the month of March, the S&P 500 has moved meaningfully away from the bullish line in the sand. That […]
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Earlier this week as the major indices approached their February highs, I wrote about the need for a quick pause to refresh in Bulls Retreat for More Ammo. While I didn’t believe the rally was over, it was the first attempt against a widely followed price level and that usually fails the first time. It’s now three days later and after two days of pause, the bulls have come roaring back with back to back late day surges with excellent […]
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After 6 essentially straight up days for stocks off the February lows, it’s time for a breather or pause to refresh. In one fell swoop, the major indices have gone from the precipice of collapse to strong initiation of a rally. Sentiment saw despondency. Mutual fund flows were very defensive, Price action had panic. The breadth and breadth volume thrust off the bottom has been powerful and dramatic and portends higher prices into spring… with one familiar caveat. As I […]
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What a wonderful three days it’s been for the bulls since I posted Yet ANOTHER Potential Low last week at the bottom. In fact, it has been one of the most powerful rallies off of a low in history in terms of the number of stocks advancing and declining along with their volume. That gives us a very overbought market in the short-term, but one that just emerging from being very oversold intermediate-term. After such strong thrusts off a bottom, […]
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For the second time in a week, stocks are trying to hammer out at least a trading low. Market action has not been good this whole quarter, but lately it has become so bad that it could be approaching washed out. February’s decline isn’t surprising given that down 5% months like we had in January typically lead to another lower month, but it has been on the ugly side for the bulls. It now looks like the major indices have […]
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