The Greatest Financial Experiment Ever
This article is a follow up to emails I received after my segment on CNBC’s Squawk Box last week regarding the unexpected news from Japan. Here is the link. Japan in Recession… Who Cares Japan has been in the news of late with the unexpectedly poor economic report indicating their economy has fallen back into recession. As I discussed last week on CNBC as well as Yahoo Finance, it really doesn’t matter at this stage. Japan has embarked on the […]
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Date: December 1, 2014
Holiday Tailwind then Headwind for Stocks
Historically, this is a quiet week for the markets with an upward bias. In other words, stocks usually drift higher without much fanfare. The market looks a little tired, but reaction may have to wait until after the country stuffs itself with food, football and fun. To begin the new week after the holiday, stocks usually experience a headwind where mild weakness is seen. Of course, since early 2012 most of the negatives suggested by history have been thrown out […]
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Date: November 25, 2014
Dow 20,000 and How We’ll Get There
My longstanding target of Dow 18,000 is now within a day or two reach if the bulls can muster the energy by Thanksgiving. If not, they may to wait until later in December. As you have read for several years, the bull market is old, but alive and should live on until enough people throw in the towel and stop predicting doom and gloom on every single digit pullback. If and when the Dow closes above 18,000 for a week, […]
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Date: November 21, 2014
Coal Mine Air Still Healthy… Says the Canaries
With stocks soaring to new highs over the past few weeks, it’s a very appropriate time to see how the canaries are faring and if any have died. Remember, the more “dead” canaries, the more likely the bull market will follow suit. This is very long-term analysis and not helpful for much other than end of bull market warnings. Let’s start with the Dow Industrials below and it’s great to see a clear and decisive all-time high right now, coming […]
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Date: November 17, 2014
Even My Bullish Forecast Wasn’t Bullish Enough
Three weeks ago as the stock market was being labeled as “in collapse”, I wrote about the bottom being formed and offered two scenarios for the market to follow. Of course, both scenarios were generally bullish, each ending at new highs, but the length of time varied. Below you can see that same chart updated with market action over the last three weeks. In short, the stock market responded even more bullishly than my very bullish forecast with all time […]
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Date: November 11, 2014
Dow Theory Trend Change… Again
Last week, I wrote an article explaining how traditional Dow Theory worked, at least the way I learned that it worked. In that piece, Dow Theory confirmed a trend change to the negative side. While describing what transpired to give this warning, I also wrote that my own projections for the Dow were to the 18,000 level and I would be surprised if stocks didn’t see all-time highs. After the Japanese caught the markets off guard with their own shock and […]
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Date: November 3, 2014
One Door Closes Another Opens
On Wednesday, to no one’s surprise, Janet Yellen & Co. ended the Fed’s 5+ year experiment of purchasing assets in the treasury and mortgage backed securities market, also known as quantitative easing (QE) or money printing. I won’t rehash all of the reasons why I continue to believe this is a misguided strategy, but it is. Before the ink was even dry on the statement, the Bank of Japan completely caught the markets off guard last night with another ramp […]
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Date: October 31, 2014
Dow Theory Trend Change
Dow Theory has been around for decades and it’s not something I discuss very often. You can Google it to find newsletters and blogs and opinions on its value. As the stock market gets closer and closer to the final bull market peak, I think it’s something we should watch. Dow Theory works in a couple of ways and I am going to focus on one piece here, primary trend change. Dow Theory Primary Trend Change occurs when BOTH the […]
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Date: October 30, 2014
Goldman Sachs’ Oil Forecasting Prowess
Goldman Sachs is a firm often in the limelight for hiring the best talent on Wall Street, winning the high profile deals, having close ties to the government and paying enormous compensation. It’s also a firm under intense scrutiny and often in the cross hairs. The last time I wrote specifically about one of their market calls was when they “curiously” downgraded the biotech sector in January 2014. You can read that piece here. http://investfortomorrowblog.com/archives/941 This week, Goldman cut their crude […]
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Date: October 28, 2014
Ending a Big Week
As I first laid out last week and then again on Monday, this week was expected to be a big one for the bulls. In real time, I wrote about the likelihood for a low that was then confirmed, making me very happy to have called it as it was happening. (In this business, you get to celebrate so little before the market turns on you!) The only question I had and still have is, “was that THE bottom or […]
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Date: October 24, 2014
