Employment Report Key to Very Short-Term
On Friday morning at 8:30am the monthly jobs report will be out. This has become the most watched and heavily anticipated economic report of the month. Over the past year or so it has been the bulls’ ATM machine as the vast majority of those days have been up and very easy on the bulls with few meaningful losses. The major stock market indices are in a very interesting position heading into Friday. Since Christmas they have essentially gone nowhere, […]
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Date: January 10, 2014
Bears Have the Ball
Having been bullish on balance since Q4 of 2012, the time has come to temporarily temper that enthusiasm. As I have written about since November, market sentiment has been at rally killing levels that is starting to encroach on bull market ending levels. Our investment models rolled over at the close of 2013 and the risk/reward is now skewed to the downside by at least a 2:1 margin. In plain English, I think the upside is now capped at 2-4% […]
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Date: January 6, 2014
A “To Do” List Before 2013 Ends
Don’t leave money on the table In uncertain economic times, many employees put off contributions to retirement accounts, reasoning that they will make up lost ground when times improve. Doing so, however, could result in leaving what is virtually “free” money on the table. If you have a 401(k) or comparable retirement account where your employer matches your contributions always contribute enough each year to receive your full employer match. Not doing so leaves money on the table. […]
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Date: December 27, 2013
Ho Ho Ho! Santa Bernanke Arrived
Greetings from usually cold and snowy, but recently tropical and wet Vermont! After three days of skiing in the rain, Old Man Winter came back and cut the temps by 70%! From short sleeve shirts and a light jacket, I am gearing up in full winter weather garb for wind chills around 0 today on top. Ben Bernanke did it! The master. The maestro. He saw the downside of announcing a taper to their $85B a month in asset purchases, but […]
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Date: December 24, 2013
Do NOT Taper
As difficult as it was at the time, quantitative easing (money printing) has now become an acceptable weapon in the Fed’s arsenal. Throughout my life, I was always taught, wrongly so, that printing money always leads to inflation and sometimes hyperinflation. And that all we needed to do was look at the Weimar Republic or Argentina or most recently Zimbabwe for examples of a currency gone rogue. When the Fed cut rates to essentially zero, critics and Doomsdayers came out […]
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Date: December 18, 2013
Big Week Ahead
For several weeks, I have warned about market sentiment at “rally killing levels”. Not a single thing has changed for the better in this department. The bulls are bulls and the bears are kinda, sorta bulls, at least through year-end. That continues to make me worried, but not enough given the calendar to take serious action. I want to preface my next comment by saying I absolutely do not believe we are on the precipice of another financial crisis like […]
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Date: December 16, 2013
Like a Broken Record
It’s getting boring, but essentially, the same comments apply. Stocks remain overbought and extended, and as we know, they can get more overbought and extended if all other indicators remain strong. That’s not the case right now and it wasn’t mid December, I would be an outright bear looking for a full fledged correction of at least 10%. As I have mentioned over and over, it is just very, very unusual to see a meaningful peak this time of year […]
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Date: December 10, 2013
Expert Year-End Tax Tips
Health Care Reform – Despite last-minute postponements in the effective date of some provisions of the Affordable Care Act (ACA), it’s important to determine now what impact this law will have on your business. By acting now, we can identify a long-term plan that anticipates the eventual rollout of the reporting and penalty provisions of the employer mandate. The Small Business Health Care Tax Credit can help offset the cost of coverage for many companies by providing a credit against […]
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Date: December 9, 2013
5 Straight Down Days
The Dow Jones is now down 5 straight days and it’s in a bull market. Without diving into the research, this has to be one of the mellowest 5 straight down days in history! I haven’t heard a single person express concern that this is the beginning of anything more significant on the downside. That’s worrisome in itself, especially if the calendar did not say December. As I have mentioned before here and in Street$marts, while market sentiment remains at […]
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Date: December 6, 2013
Even the Bears are Bulls… for Now
The stock market is tired, again. That seems like a phrase I have used often this year without much follow through. There have been many times in 2013 when the market had risen sharply and then looked just plain weary. Instead of correcting or even pulling back smartly, the stock market behaved like it does when it’s in a powerful bull trend; it’s consolidated sideways within a few percent of its high and then blasted off again. “Is this time […]
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Date: December 2, 2013
