A Bull Market in Bears
Well look at that, three days this week the stock market is gapping up at the open. I would be surprised if the bears were able to thwart the bulls at all today. What a difference from a few weeks ago when it gapped down four straight days and in much greater magnitude. The bull have had a nice week. It’s the first up week of what has been a brutally tough month (and quarter and year) for the bulls. […]
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Date: June 24, 2022
Wednesday a Key Day – Extreme Bearish Sentiment
The markets returned from the holiday weekend with an absence of sellers. The bulls had a big day although not as strong as price indicated. By that, I mean the number of stocks going up on the day and the volume associated with those stocks was not as powerful as price said it should be. Yes; I could be nitpicking, but after such a significant decline I want to see more progress. Interestingly, I read a thread on Twitter about […]
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Date: June 22, 2022
This Year Ain’t Easy But It’s NOT 2008
FYI. The financial markets are closed on Monday in observance of Juneteenth. Stocks ticked ever so slightly higher to close another very challenging week for the bulls. It was also a quarterly expiration of futures and options which likely exacerbated the decline. From March 29th to May 12th the stock market experienced one of the strongest selling waves ever. More recently, the stock market saw four straight 1% down days ending on June 13th, also rivaling other periods for strength […]
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Date: June 20, 2022
***SPECIAL Fed Update – The Fed Can’t Win – The Final Countdown***
The stock market model for today is plus or minus 0.50% until 2pm and then a bigger move. Given the recent decline there could be a little more juice in that trade, but it would have been better had stocks fallen into Tuesday’s close. I joined my friend Tim Lammers and the morning team on Fox61 today to offer a primer on the Fed meeting and correct one of the biggest myths about the Fed. You can watch HERE. Driving […]
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Date: June 15, 2022
Not The Scenario I Wanted – Answering Your Questions
***Please note that I have started and stopped this update a number of times since I am on the road, so please forgive the pieces that may be a little stale*** I want to start off by addressing a comment and answering a few questions. First, a number of folks emailed why I didn’t send out market updates last week. I did. I just didn’t send notification to the entire list. Remember, I try to publish on the blog on […]
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Date: June 13, 2022
Damaging The Bullish Case
The seesaw stock market ended on Thursday as the up, down, up, down gave way to strong selling in the afternoon. The recent short-term trading range which I thought would resolve itself to the upside instead broke lower and it was an ugly day for the bulls with 90% of volume coming in stocks moving to downside. I often get asked why something happens and the truth of the matter is that it is never 100% clear. However, in this […]
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Date: June 10, 2022
Choppy & Sloppy
The stock market has certainly been choppy over the past 7 days with three up days and four down days. The S&P 500 is in the same area as it was on May 27. Coming off the first rally from a very volatile bottom, this can be expected. Ultimately, the resolution should be to the upside in the not too distant future. We know that biotech, new innovation and software were hit the hardest. And those groups seem to be […]
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Date: June 8, 2022
Bull Market in Bearishness
It’s amazing how many articles I see and Google searches being made about recessions and bear markets. Since the 2008 financial crisis, investors have typically pivoted very quickly to being negative when headlines were dark. And since 2009 we have not had any long-lasting stock market declines. When I get questioned about the comparison between now and the Dotcom Bubble, there are many enormous differences, but none bigger than the lengthy period it took for investors to become bearish. Every […]
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Date: June 6, 2022
Adios May
Can I just say good riddance to May and move on? After all, the first 19 days were as painful as any in recent memory. And one of the longest and most relentless selling waves took place through May 20th. The good news was that my loyal readers got a timely warning that a low of significance was forming. During that period I presented a number of indicators and charts which firmly supported my position that “A” bottom was being […]
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Date: June 1, 2022
Historic Selling Wave Ended
As I have been writing about for more than a week, I had high conviction that a low of some sort was forming. Dozens of stars were lining up and even if this was 2008 (it’s not), prices should still rebound 7-15%. And the bulls did what I said they were supposed to do. Step up and squeeze the bears. Prices are back to the peak from Fed day this month where the last plunge began. The bulls should surpass […]
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Date: May 27, 2022
