***SPECIAL FED UPDATE – Rates Going Up, Powell Still Chasing***
Before I get into my comments about the Fed meeting, let’s start with what the model says for today’s action which seems to be of interest to many people. On every Fed day, the model says plus or minus 0.50% until 2pm. With pre-market action we are looking at well north of that. Post 2pm, we are supposed to rally, however, given the big rally on Tuesday and what looks to be a strong opening and possible morning, the odds […]
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Date: March 16, 2022
Junk Bonds Need Help
It’s finally here, at least the week is here. It’s Fed week which should redirect some of the market chatter from Russia/Ukraine. While the media remains acutely focused on geopolitical events and Wall Street is falling over itself cutting their year-end S&P 500 targets, Jay Powell and his minions are set to begin a new interest rate hike cycle on Wednesday. That’s much more important to our markets and economy. I always literally laugh out loud when I see Wall […]
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Date: March 14, 2022
Stocks Trading Heavy – High Yield at New Lows
On the surface stocks remain all over the map, but stepping away from the trees for a minute, they really haven’t gone anywhere up or down. The February high stands. The February low stands. The market does, however, feel on the heavy side which is what we see early rallies are sold and afternoons are weak. Very quietly, small caps have been leading giving solace to the bulls. That’s not enough for me without some upside progress. High yield bonds […]
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Date: March 11, 2022
Seeds of an Oil Peak
In Monday’s long video I spoke about energy and the likelihood of the commodity suddenly peaking. It could be now or next week or next month, but the price action and sentiment indicated end of move behavior rather than anything else. On Tuesday, Congress and President Biden banned Russian oil imports. Then financial channel CNBC ran a special called Oil Shock. While I am not saying the high is here, this is how in tune the country is about the […]
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Date: March 9, 2022
Evidence Mounts For a Bottom But Something Doesn’t Feel Right
Two days ago, investors, or at least my Twitter feed, were starting to get a little more bullish. Thursday’s action was not constructive although it certainly seems like we go up then down then up then down. Yesterday felt like the peak after the first bounce from the January 24th low. And Friday is not looking so hot to begin the day. I was encouraged that our models showed improvement after the latest low, but one of our aggressive ones […]
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Date: March 4, 2022
More Evidence of a Bottom
Day to day volatility continues, however, price has not done much over the past three days. Russia/Ukraine continues to dominate the headlines, but that’s taking the eyes off the ball. I have written it here and said it in the media many times that the vast majority of the stock market correction is related to the Fed and not geopolitical events. It wasn’t long ago when all the Fed pundits were sure we would see 6, 7 and even 8 […]
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Date: March 2, 2022
Cherry Picked Indicators Screaming Buy
Good morning everyone. It’s always a good Monday when I can get out of bed without too many aches and pains from skiing. I did more reading over the weekend than I have since COVID first spread and I found it so interesting how the opinions about the Russian invasion were across the spectrum. It was everything from Putin is cognitively impaired and going to launch nukes to Putin is a genius, sending only a fraction of the troops into […]
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Date: February 28, 2022
Steep & Deep
I had hoped to get something posted this morning, but duty called, in the form of potentially the biggest storm of the crummy winter in Vermont. So, like any hearty and addicted skier, I had to chase the powder with my mini me son in tow. Lifts open at 8 so we had to be lining up by 7:30am to get first tracks. And the ski gods smiled on us as we rode up with a family friend who is […]
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Date: February 25, 2022
Buy When The Bullets Fly
Never been known to mince words nor waffle, here is my segment from Friday with the good folks at Yahoo Finance on what’s going on and what to expect. Market ‘is all about the Fed,’ not geopolitics Markets return from a nice and long holiday weekend with tremendous pre-market volatility. As I watched the action on Sunday night, Monday and Monday evening I was a bit surprised by the massive swings. I can’t believe traders are moving big money around […]
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Date: February 22, 2022
Trader’s Market Continues – Beware Junk
Last month the stock market plunged followed by a sharp snap back this month. As I wrote the other day, stocks were really in no man’s land, caught between the lines in the sand. After Thursday’s big rout by the bears, the market is once again close to new lows for the week. While I still don’t believe stocks are ready to revisit the January mini-crash lows just yet, it’s not a hill I am willing to die on either. […]
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Date: February 18, 2022
