Bells May Not Be Ringing But They Are Being Polished
Geez, it only took one day before I got my wish. As you know I have been skeptical that the September 30th bottom would hold having closed on the screws of the low of the day, week, month and quarter. But that didn’t mean the market had to collapse beneath it. And I was concerned that price hadn’t reacted with a surge in volatility as it approached and/or breached the recent lows. Well folks, that all changed on Thursday. I […]
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Date: October 14, 2022
Barrage of Bad News – Looking for Volatility to Spike
I can always find things that concern me in the markets just as easily as things that are sanguine. Lately, it’s bothered me that the bottom on September 30th came on the screws of the low for the day, week, month and quarter. I couldn’t find a single comparable low and that’s why I thought those price levels had to be breached before the stock market could bottom. So far, the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 have cooperated and cleaned […]
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Date: October 12, 2022
Strong Employment Not Good For Stocks – Good News = Bad News
Today is Columbus Day, at least that’s what it says in my Outlook calendar. My kids tell me I can’t use that name anymore. Whatever today is called, the seasonal trend is mildly positive. Stocks ended last week on a sour note although they did fill the price gap left by last Tuesday’s big up opening. The employment data was softer than the prior month but it still came in stronger than expected with the unemployment rate back down to […]
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Date: October 10, 2022
Buying Stampede, Bull Market or Bull Trap, Aaron Judge & Fox Business
I am excited to join the most dapper man on TV, Charles Payne, on Fox Business today 2:45pm discussing the stock market’s bottom, surge potential and what investors could be buying. Thank you to all who attended our quarterly webinar last night where we reviewed the events of Q3, discussed the performance of our 18 strategies and took a sneak peak at how Q4 looks. The recording should be available this afternoon. The stock market continues to be volatile and […]
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Date: October 7, 2022
New Bull Market or Just Another Bounce?
Good thing not much has happened since I last published on Monday. And yes, I am kidding. I was off for Yom Kippur on Wednesday so that’s why I did not post. The stock market gapped up at the open on Monday and did not look back. The same thing happened on Tuesday. On Wednesday it gapped down at the open and rallied all day. Do you see the trend? Notice how different this week has been from the last […]
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Date: October 6, 2022
Ready or Not, October is Here – Major Bottom Coming
Seasonal trends are like headwinds and tailwinds. They typically do not act as buy or sell signals. Nonetheless, the trends I wrote about a month ago definitely played out. The S&P 500 lost 10% in September and its reputation as a cruel month plays out again. When I penned September is a Cruel Month I did not think that September would be down 10%. That’s a huge outlier in the distribution of monthly returns. And let’s recall that the stock […]
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Date: October 3, 2022
Stock Market Not Reacting To The June Lows Yet
So far, the stock market has not responded to the June lows, meaning that we didn’t see any trap door selling nor a rush of buying. The reaction has been muted. I don’t think that helps. You can see the S&P 500 below, but the rest look similar except for the Dow Industrials. Okay. I will show the Dow as well below. It broke the June lows but hasn’t been able to quickly get back above it. What all this […]
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Date: September 30, 2022
Something Breaking Part II
So far, the only index to really break the June lows has been the Dow Industrials. The S&P 500, S&P 400 and Russell 2000 did a quick dive and recovery which likely stopped out many traders. At this point that does not qualify as a terminating move from which a major rally emerges although the stock market is getting closer both in terms of price and time. I have been targeting October and its bear killing history and nothing has […]
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Date: September 28, 2022
The Rocky Road & Silver Lining – How & When The Stock Market Bottoms
Stocks fell hard again on Thursday and Friday morning before firming into the weekend during the last two hours. Late day Friday comebacks are always suspect but a low isn’t impossible. In fact, the stock market should be close to at least a trading low and likely this week before perhaps rolling over to one more decline before the ultimate bottom. Rosh Hashanah begins tonight at sundown and the old adage is to sell before the holiday and buy when […]
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Date: September 26, 2022
Something Breaking Somewhere
The S&P 500 ended last week at 3873. Today, it stands at 3757. Unless the index rallies more than 100 points today, the weakest week in the weakest month in the weakest year will have struck again. Some wondered whether last week’s weakness was front running this week. We now know that was not the case. The odds were high that this week would be down, clearly not by this magnitude because long-term studies never get that right with so […]
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Date: September 23, 2022
