Bulls Need to Step Up – Vital Canary Under Pressure
Stocks jumped up at the opening on Friday, presumably because of yet another disappointing employment report. The early chatter was that the big miss would give the Fed cover not to announce the plan to taper asset purchases next month. However, the bond market opened lower and stayed lower for the second straight day. You can see that in the chart below. That market certainly isn’t behaving like the growth is slowing and/or the Fed is going to cut back. […]
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Date: October 11, 2021
Bulls Thwart Bears to Finish in The Green – New Highs Still The Call
The stock market finally saw an intra-day reversal from a moderate down first hour to closing in the green in Wednesday. That’s one of the ingredients that gives me stronger conviction of a bottom. While we continue to be positioned for a significant rally based on our models, I still do not have strong conviction that THE bottom is in. And the truth is, I may not get exactly what I want. It could just be one of those times […]
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Date: October 7, 2021
Lots of Investors Negative But Was It THE Low?
After watching a full slate of football on Sunday afternoon (Yeah Cowboys & Jets!) as well as playing 9 holes with the “little guy” who is now 13 and an excellent golf cart driver, I watched 60 Minutes as is my normal routine before the Sunday night NFL game begins. When the teaser showed a whistleblower from Facebook, I took a deep breath and sighed. We own Facebook in one of our strategies and a healthy dose of technology sub-sectors […]
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Date: October 5, 2021
October Not The Bullish Month Many Believe – All-Time Highs Still Coming
Stocks did not end the month of September nor Q3 well. Early strength weakened and the bears pounced into the close. However, that setup leads to a reliably bullish setup from a trend only is active at month and quarter-end. That’s not my opinion or thought; it’s a mechanical system. And if stocks open lower, it would add further strength to that trend. While that was the case when I woke up, news just broke about Merck’s anti-viral clinical three […]
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Date: October 1, 2021
Ugly Day on Tuesday as Pivot in Full Swing
The stock market took it on the chin on Tuesday and my major stock market pivot was in full motion. The major indices were hit with the ugly stick and sectors losses varied depending on economic exposure. However, similar to what I wrote about during the recent pullback, the decline felt worse than it actually was. There has been an unusual amount of negativity in the media. The largest real estate company on earth, Evergrande, defaulted. Inflation has been running […]
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Date: September 29, 2021
Major Stock Market Pivot
After Thursday big surge by the bulls, the bears couldn’t even get a pullback on Friday. Early weakness was quickly bought and I joined that party at the open. Very quietly banks and financials are climbing the ladder of leadership as long-term bond yields are trying to breakout to the upside. That’s probably the biggest and perhaps most important story in the short-term. It’s a return to the “reopening trade” or economically sensitive sectors. The 10-Year Treasury Note is below. […]
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Date: September 27, 2021
Bears Have Tough Few Days – No Stress in Treasury or Junk Markets
Well, well, well, as the pundits and paid actors were advising things like “SELL, SELL, SELL” on Monday, the market did its best to make monkeys out of them once again. I heard one “senior commentator” claim that the late day rally on Monday was just traders “front running” anticipated strength on Tuesday and it was unlikely any rally would hold. Boy does that sound smart. And wrong. In Dow points, the index is now 800 points above that level. […]
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Date: September 24, 2021
Textbook Bullish Setup as Fed Concludes Meeting With Some Uncertainty
FINALLY, we have a FOMC meeting where the outcome isn’t a certainty. HURRAY! First, let’s get discuss how the stock market is supposed to behave. It’s Fed day so the stock market usually trades in a band of plus to minus 0.50% until 2pm and then see a bigger move, usually to the upside. That trend has not played as well under Jay Powell as it did under Yellen and Bernanke. Stocks have also sold off into the Fed meeting […]
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Date: September 22, 2021
Bears Feeling Their Oats This Morning – Enjoy It Now
Looks like we have an ugly opening ahead this morning to begin the weakest week in the weakest month. I did a video yesterday on this and the prospects for higher income and capital gains taxes. You can access it HERE. I always find it interesting how many people email questions and comments when I post new blogs, but especially new videos. This video has already created email inbox buzz. I am guessing the other emails in my inbox might […]
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Date: September 20, 2021
Taxes Going Up – Bears Get Selling
The stock market continues to trade heavy without much magnitude on the downside so far. The WHY isn’t important as you know market reaction is much more so. In a perfect world, as I wrote the other day, I would like to see one more decline to new lows for the week and then a reversal to the upside to begin a run to new highs. That bottom could be the offing next week. Biden and Congressional Democrats seem lined […]
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Date: September 17, 2021
