The Myth of September’s Gloom
As the calendar turned to September, the media was in their usual tizzy because historically, the month has the worst performance of any during the year. The problem with making very general statements is that context is ignored. It wasn’t long ago when all the headlines were about how strong the month of December was and everyone was all bulled up because stocks had corrected 10% in October and November. Then stocks collapsed in December like hadn’t been seen since […]
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Date: September 9, 2019
Bulls Look to Maul Bears as Semis Remain Strong
At the end of last week I wrote about the bulls’ inability to sustain a breakout above the recent range as prices briefly popped above the highs but reversed to close lower. Given my continued bullish outlook, I wasn’t worried and I am still not concerned. This morning, pre-market indications look for the bulls to attempt a full-fledged assault higher and break through the month long trading range as you can see below using the S&P 500 futures. For more […]
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Date: September 5, 2019
Bulls Poke Above Range Without Follow Through
The final day of the week and the month and I think all those investors supposedly in The Hamptons can get back to lounging on the beach or partaking in the nightlife. Not I. It’s been a month full of physical therapy, acupuncture and lots of walking and throwing with the kids when I wasn’t in the office. And to the disappointment of many, the bull market didn’t end in August and the economy didn’t recess. The trading range continued […]
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Date: August 30, 2019
Where’s the Worry About Inverted Yield Curve and 10 Year Plunge?
While the past few days did nothing to clear up the four-week trading range, I still give the nod to the bulls as I have been saying for weeks. That’s regardless of whether stocks first poke through the bottom of the range or not. I do find it funny that yields on the 10 year bond hit fresh lows on Wednesday and stocks did not collapse as some media analysts have been selling as a tried and truism lately. One […]
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Date: August 29, 2019
I Didn’t See That Coming!
Last Friday, I wrote about not expecting much or really anything new from Jay Powell when he spoke at the Fed’s annual retreat in Jackson Hole. While I was spot on about that, I absolutely did not see the tweetstorm from the President, basically threatening economic martial law, let alone questioning if his appointed Fed Chair was an “enemy”. A bit of a head scratcher. All of that led to the markets becoming unglued the rest of the day, except […]
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Date: August 26, 2019
Powell’s Much Ado About Nothing While High Beta Percolates
Markets were on pause mode on Thursday as everyone awaited Fed Chair Jay Powell’s speech from Jackson Hole on Friday morning. Most of the stories I have read and media interviews I have seen had a very binary outcome from Powell’s speech. It was “all or none”. I don’t agree. I think he is going to straddle the line as much as possible and say very little in the way of new or market moving information.The key will be not […]
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Date: August 23, 2019
Bulls Look to Trap Bears – Semis the Key
The bulls had the chance. They could have really squeezed the bears. But they weren’t totally ready just yet. Tuesday’s afternoon selloff looked on the ugly side, but in reality it just kept the stock market in the same range it has been in all month. I want to see a daily close in the Dow above 26,500, S&P 500 above 2945 and NASDAQ 100 above 7800 to confirm the bull are readying a run to the old highs. These […]
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Date: August 21, 2019
Bulls Cede Control from Bears
Friday was a very good day for the bulls on the heels of a little reversal on Thursday that pierced the recent lows on the Dow, S&P 400 and Russell 2000. While I would have preferred the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 to have joined that party to run the weak money out of the market, it’s not the end of the world. You can see what I am talking about below in the lower right side of the chart […]
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Date: August 19, 2019
Bear Clowns Wrong, AGAIN – Dow 28,000 on the Way
The news backdrop certainly isn’t good. Trump adds tariffs. China threatens retaliation. Hong Kong protests. China readying to “invade”. Germany and Italy in recession. Yield curve inverts in U.S. Recession fears explode higher. All of this sounds so bad. Like there is no hope, just darkness. Yet stocks are merely 6.5% from an all-time high. 6.5%! I will go one step further. News like I mentioned more often occurs as the stock market gropes for a bottom than puts in […]
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Date: August 16, 2019
I HATE Tariffs
I hate tariffs! I hate tariffs! I hate tariffs! PHEW! Now that I got that out of the way, I can get down to business. I really hate the idea of tariffs. The free market should be the ultimate arbiter, absolutely not the global governments trying to protect certain industries. And as I have said over and over and over, no one, not a one, wins a trade war. There are only losers. You can only put so much lipstick […]
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Date: August 15, 2019
