Not So Special Fed Day Update. Recession & Bear Market
Normally, I send out a very detailed update when the Federal Reserve concludes their every 6 week meeting. Given the volume of updates I have published lately, I am sure most of you have a little Paul Schatz fatigue. So for someone not known for brevity as my colleague,Renee, says all the time, I am going to keep this short and to the point and then work on a very important Canaries in the Coal Mine. The Fed concludes their […]
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Date: November 8, 2018
Election Model Right Again!
Last night, I flew back from one of the best conferences I have ever been to in Chicago for the National Association of Active Investment Managers. Besides offering my outlook on many asset classes and themes for 2019, I sat through some really great presentations as well as networked with some of my closest industry friends and new acquaintances. So many bright and talented people. Some really good deep dish pizza at Gino’s East and tasty craft beer on tap. […]
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Date: November 7, 2018
***Special Election Update***
Greetings from 34,000 feet as I head to Chicago for a quick two day trip to attend the National Association of Active Investment Managers’ conference where I will be speaking about my preliminary forecast for 2019 as well as rubbing elbows with some of the industry’s brightest and most forward thinking minds. It’s an association I have been involved with since 1990 and their two conferences are always a highlight of my year. Election Day is here again. Boy, was […]
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Date: November 6, 2018
Battle Lines Drawn
The bears made their first stand of the nascent rally on Friday as very early strength was immediately sold. The best thing about this is that we now have a few common sense lines in the sand drawn to determine short-term direction. You can see below that the most recent price is smack in the middle of the four lines. A CLOSE above or below the two closest lines to price will likely create a quick and sharp move in […]
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Date: November 5, 2018
Stocks Peaking on Amazing Jobs Report
What a volatile, interesting and fun week it has been. I am about ready for some time to myself although I do board a flight on Sunday afternoon for a quick trip to Chicago. Deep dish pizza, here I come! My plan coming in on Friday was to look for another big up day for the bulls and then begin to take some risk off the table, book profits or however you like to call reducing exposure to stocks. It […]
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Date: November 2, 2018
Calling THE Bottom and the Bear Market that Lies Ahead
Before I dive in headfirst I want to start by saying that there are more bold and brash comments in this update, especially after the charts, than any piece I have written in a very long time. None of it is political. Here is a taste and I respectfully ask you to read this update to the end. It spells out some very detailed scenarios for the bull market and impending bear market. Let me state this very emphatically. If […]
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Date: November 1, 2018
Why Have Stocks Been Going Down
This correction has been very fast and furious. I talked about it yesterday and how downside momentum was beginning to wane. The old saying that stocks take the stairs to the tops and the elevator to the bottom definitely rings true here. This decline has been relentless with strong wave after strong wave of selling. I can spend a lot of time debating why stocks have declined, but does it really matter? The stock market usually discounts economic activity 6-9 […]
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Date: October 31, 2018
Early Signs of Waning Downside Momentum
The selling has been relentless. It’s come in strong waves with some of the most powerful moves in many years. If you watch the intra day “tick” indicator which essentially tells you the cumulative price move for all stocks on the NYSE, up or down, there have been two massive and historic waves where the tick exceeded -1600. That shows indiscriminate selling and it’s not mom and pop hitting the sell button. The reasons are not important and we never […]
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Date: October 30, 2018
Squawk Box, Yahoo Finance & Correction Update
I started out my day with a visit to CNBC’s Squawk Box at 6:15am. I should have the link to post later today. I will be with the good folks at Yahoo Finance on Midday Movers either right at 11:30am or noon, live from Heritage Capital’s global headquarters via Skype. There’s an inside joke in there which I am always willing to share in person. As you know from all of my posts, markets have been very volatile and even […]
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Date: October 29, 2018
Crash Scenario Avoided BUT Where is THE Bottom???
Well folks, it’s been quite a week so far. After stocks tried to hammer in a low on October 11th there was a rally as I expected. In fact, that October day was the first day our shorter-term investment models started turning positive with the Dow at 25,000 after having been negative since the all-time high peak on October 3rd. As I wrote at that time, I didn’t think 25,000 was going to be the ultimate bottom, but the majority […]
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Date: October 25, 2018
