Bull Markets Do NOT End This Way
*NOTE: I began this piece as my regular Friday blog post as a follow up to a tweet I sent last night. The more I wrote, the more I wanted to say. That turned into more of an Analysis 101 piece which I am distributing to everyone. It’s also one very important piece in my canaries in the coal mine which I hope to have out next week. One of my favorite long-term indicators scored an all-time high on Thursday, […]
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Date: May 11, 2018
Stock Market & Economy Yawn as Trump Terminates Iran Deal
I have to laugh when I hear so many pundits surprised that Trump withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal. It was one of his many campaign promises. Most members of his revolving door administration were squarely against the deal’s continuation. What was so surprising? While my interview was 5 minutes, only a few comments made the segment on WTNH (ABC in CT) last night. I don’t think the Iran news will have any economic impact at all. It’s been fairly […]
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Date: May 9, 2018
Friday was Constructive but More Work to be Done
Last Thursday, I wrote about green shoots in the stock market. Until former Fed chair Ben Bernanke used that phrase on 60 Minutes in March 2009, I had absolutely no idea what it meant. Later I learned that after a forest fire burns everything to the ground, the landscape becomes incredibly rich with nutrients and these little “green shoots” spring up as the first sign of new life. Eventually, these shoots become trees that grow very tall over time. Of […]
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Date: May 7, 2018
Green Shoots for the Bulls After Fed Selloff
As expected by almost everyone, the Fed stood pat on Wednesday. I was shocked to hear some pundits predicted a rate hike. That’s one of the dumbest forecasts I have heard in an awfully long time as the Fed has become almost too transparent and too accommodating to the markets. A rate hike out of nowhere?!?! That made me laugh out loud. Stocks sold off after the announcement for the second straight Fed meeting, in direct contradiction to one of […]
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Date: May 3, 2018
***SPECIAL Fed Update – Fed’s Arrogance & Pomposity Leading to Recession Watch***
Stock Market Behavior Models for the Day As with every Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement day, there is a model for the stock market to follow pre and post announcement. Certain environments have very strong tendencies while others do not. Over the past few meetings, many of the strongest trends were muted. As with most statement days, the model for the day calls for stocks to return plus or minus 0.50% until 2:00 PM. There is a 90% chance […]
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Date: May 2, 2018
Crosscurrents Abound in May but Fraught with Risk
The month of May begins today. It’s supposed to be spring although you wouldn’t know it in New England on Monday as folks had on hats, gloves and down jackets. The weather is finally looking up in CT as the forecast calls for 70s and 80s this week. I think the bulls are hoping their forecast heats up this week as it’s been cold for stocks of late. As you know from my blog posts since April 18 I have […]
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Date: May 1, 2018
Huge Week Ahead. May 1st VERY Bullish
Stocks begin the new week with the bulls on the optimistic side. Yes, the tariff deadline looms, but we also have the Fed on Wednesday, employment report on Friday and earnings scattered throughout the week. Lots going. Lots of ammunition for the bulls, or so they say. I am not as encouraged for the same reasons I discussed last week and the week before. Lower before higher although I am sure I will feel squeezed if stocks break out to […]
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Date: April 30, 2018
Don’t Let the Bulls Fool You; Bears are in Control
Turnaround Tuesday didn’t work out so well for the bulls, but they did muster up some strength to rally on Wednesday and Thursday. Still, we don’t have a single day where 90% of the volume was in stocks going up. That’s sorely lacking to give the bulls some comfort. Lots of folks were crowing on Thursday about the NASDAQ 100’s regaining leadership with Microsoft, Facebook and Amazon blowing out earnings to the upside. However, let’s not forget that the market […]
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Date: April 27, 2018
Turnaround Tuesday, Semis & 3%
Just a quick comment regarding the short-term state of the market. With the current pullback lasting through Monday, there is a possibility for a rally beginning on Tuesday, also known as Turnaround Tuesday. This scenario is usually more important and prominent when stocks are in the throes of a more significant decline and momentum is strong. We do not have that now. I bring up Turnaround Tuesday not so much because I think stocks are at important bottom, but because […]
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Date: April 24, 2018
Bears in Charge as Bond Yields Rise Again
The bears certainly won the day on Friday to end the week. While stocks did close off the lows with the typical late day buying into the bell, stocks fell back into the equilibrium level we have seen of late. The bears have the upper hand to a small degree. While the transports, banks and discretionary are hanging in nicely for now, semis continue to be under severe pressure. They are now at risk of breaking the April, testing their […]
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Date: April 23, 2018
