In the Throes of the Bottoming Process
1100 point decline to end the week certainly makes people pay attention. It still feels like yesterday (or late January) when all the talk was about a year long stock market melt up.Tax reform, 700+ regulations killed, GDP accelerating. All paths led higher. Almost every day, Donald Trump celebrated fresh all-time highs and used the stock market as his report card. Oh, the good ole days! As I wrote about last week, I don’t believe it’s about Facebook or Trump’s […]
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Date: March 26, 2018
What Happened to the Stock Market Melt Up?
700+ points of Dow decline on Thursday surely did change sentiment quickly. And while stock market bottoms do occur on Fridays (13% of the time), contrary to popular belief, the final low is unlikely to be today. Earlier this week, I discussed how all three of my offered scenarios were breaking down as they all eventually do, I thought the Dow would go check out 24,200 but likely head all the way down towards 23,000 which is below the lows […]
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Date: March 23, 2018
***SPECIAL Fed Update – Rates Are Going Up Again & Then Some***
Stock Market Behavior Models for the Day As with every Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement day, there is a model for the stock market to follow pre and post announcement. Certain environments have very strong tendencies while others do not. Over the past few meetings, many of the strongest trends muted although the system that said to sell on the close of the meeting hit a home run. The S&P immediately crashed from 2824 to 2645 or 6% during […]
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Date: March 21, 2018
Scenarios Breaking Down
For the past 6 weeks, I have offered what has now amounted to three plausible scenarios for where stocks are headed over the coming three to four months. While the short-term ups and downs varied, all paths from my perspective ended up at new highs for the major stock market indices. Nothing has changed in this regard and I continue to expect Dow 27,000 by the end of Q2 (June 30). As with almost every single market analog, eventually, they […]
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Date: March 20, 2018
Nasty, Ugly Reversal
Stock market action on Tuesday printed a classic nasty and ugly reversal when looking at the charts. Stocks opened at the highs for the day and closed at their lows. Additionally, the move from high to low completely enveloped the previous day’s activity. While this does look really bad on a chart and people will often say it’s a classic key reversal which ends rallies and bull markets, research doesn’t support that claim. Sure, you can see and have seen […]
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Date: March 14, 2018
2018 Looking A Lot Like 1997
As you know, I have been hanging my hat on two scenarios for the market since early February. I updated those yesterday. While both scenarios still lead to Dow 27,000 by the end of Q2, I searched long and hard for further evidence to support my thesis. I love finding market analogs, but there haven’t been many to what transpired over the past 6 weeks. 1997 seems like the most favorable comparison and when I lined them up, it looked […]
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Date: March 13, 2018
I’m Back! Dow Still Going to 27,000
I want to start off by thanking everyone for the overwhelming support, compassion and number of condolences on my dad’s passing. It has been a difficult few weeks both pre and post funeral and Shiva, but my family and I were tremendously comforted by so many people coming out of the woodwork with calls, cards, texts, emails, donations to his favorite charities and an amazing amount of stories about my dad, many of which I was hearing for the first […]
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Date: March 12, 2018
FYI
Earlier this week, my dad, Richard “Dick” Schatz, passed away. He had been sick for a while, but just kept beating the odds with some amazing clinical trials at Memorial Sloan Kettering. If you called the office over the years, every once in a while he would answer our phone and engage in conversation with literally anyone who could fog a mirror. Below is the most recent picture of my parents at a milestone birthday party for one of his […]
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Date: March 1, 2018
Breakout Alert for Stocks. Yields NOT Peaking
After Friday’s dominance by the bulls and the very early Monday morning follow through, the bulls are on the verge of negating what has been my preferred scenario and instead opting for scenario number two below. Since a called the bottom a few weeks ago, I drew the two horizontal blue lines on the chart below and have not changed them at all. Those represent a trading range where I thought stocks would bounce in as volatility began to subside […]
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Date: February 26, 2018
Stock Market Approaching Critical Juncture. Eyes Open!
It’s Friday of a holiday-shortened week and even more so for me as I spent Tuesday and Wednesday in New Orleans with some fellow UCONN crazies eating, enjoying a few adult beverages, playing golf and watching the women dismantle Tulane, my wife’s alma mater. It was a good break from winter in New England, but Mother Nature seems to have lost her ferocity up here and it’s been more like March and April. Speaking of my wife, Teri, I […]
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Date: February 23, 2018
