9 – Seek the help of a professional A recent Dalbar study revealed that from 1986 to 2005 the average investor earned 3.90% before taxes while the average stock mutual fund made 9.30% and the S&P 500 grew by 11.90%. Individual investors are emotional by nature and have a bad habit of buying near peaks and selling near bottoms, exactly the opposite of what they should be doing! If that sounds familiar to you, it’s time to seek qualified help. […]
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8 – Prepare for higher taxes No matter who is to blame (it’s really irrelevant at this point), the Great Recession and subsequent government bailouts, programs and stimuli are resulting in trillion dollar plus budget deficits as far as the eye can see. To correct this, the government can cut spending and shrink government and/or raise taxes. In all likelihood, there will be a combination of both which should result in continued subpar growth with rolling bouts of weakness as […]
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7 – Residential real estate begins the stabilization process. It’s no secret that the real estate bubble has burst and many areas of the country are left in ruins. It was no secret in 2008 that the energy bubble burst. And it was certainly no secret that the dotcom bubble burst 10 years ago. The problem is that it was only apparent to the masses after the initial collapse occurred! The chart below can be applied to any bubble or […]
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6 – “I’m from the government and I am here to help!” Those were Ronald Reagan’s nine most terrifying words. Not a new worry, but the biggest risk to the financial markets and economic recovery is politicians running even more amuck, especially with the hugely important election this year here and others around the globe. Before long, all of the talk will turn to the two presidential candidates, Barack Obama and likely Mitt Romney with their dizzying array of media […]
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5 – Look for the U.S. economy to continue to slog along When economies emerge from recession, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) tends to accelerate very quickly and in steep fashion as consumers who have held off purchases begin to buy and companies who became lean and mean during the cleansing are not left with much inventory. That’s in “normal” times. What we experienced in 2008 and 2009 was the bursting of a credit bubble and subsequent deleveraging (reducing debt). Recoveries […]
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4 – Don’t get complacent! After a horrific climate in late 2007, 2008 and early 2009 where most asset classes were decimated, the last 9 months of 2009 saw tremendous “bounce back” where most people began to feel better as their portfolios and the economy stabilized. Don’t get complacent and lazy, thinking the markets going to party like it’s the 1990s all over again. That time will come later this decade. The modern investor has a short memory and has […]
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3 – Beware the “Money Magazine Jinx”. What worked well last year isn’t likely to be repeated next year. When the popular publications like Money and Fortune give kudos to a particular investment’s success last year, it’s usually close to the end. That’s been the case the vast majority of the time in bull and bear markets with geographic regions like Asian emerging markets, asset classes like commodities, mutual funds like the Fairholme Fund and Legg Mason Value Trust, sectors […]
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2 – Asset allocating among stocks and bonds hasn’t worked well this century and it’s unlikely to work in the next decade. Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT), which espouses fixed portfolio allocations of stocks and bonds, may not be dead, but it’s critically wounded and has hurt hundreds of thousands of pre-retirees and retirees just in the past 12 years. Folks who retired in 1999 and 2000 have been decimated TWICE in 10 years. Not only were they drawing income off […]
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It’s amazing how powerful the turn of the calendar can be. New Year’s resolutions dominate the landscape with all of the weight loss programs and workout products at the top of the list. I’ve never been a huge “resolution” person, probably since there’s just too much I need to change and it’s a little overwhelming! But each year, I may pick one single project that needs to get done and is manageable. Last year, my office resolution was to become […]
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