Figuring Out The Transports And Avoiding The Rust
They’re not making it easy. But do they ever? Yes, they do. Who is “they”? I’m not really sure, but I seem to use the pronoun a lot. Let me give you an example of one thing that confused me lately. Look at the two charts below. The first one is the Dow Jones Transportation Index which is made up of thing like airlines, rails, truckers and shippers. It is nowhere near its August 2023 peak which is concerning. Now […]
Read More
Date: February 17, 2024
One Day Wonder or The Start of a Big Decline
The markets had a little down day, eh? I like when people ask me why the markets “crashed” on Tuesday. I mean, stocks are up 20% since the October bottom and hadn’t had even a 2% decline in three months. And we see a single down day of 1-3% and people are all beared up. I want to say that I don’t get it, but I totally do. It’s investor psychology and behavioral finance. And let’s be crystal clear like […]
Read More
Date: February 14, 2024
***Q4 Client Update***
2023 ended much the way it began, with the bulls firmly in charge, our strategies locked and loaded long and me continuing to pound the table for higher prices. However, the financial market landscape could not have been more different. 12 months ago, it was difficult to find a positive forecast. I was almost all alone on the bullish island for 2023. Wall Street, the pundits and the media were firmly negative. Recession was coming. Inflation was out of control. […]
Read More
Date: February 12, 2024
Today’s Millionaires: Exploring What “High Net Worth” Really Means
Many individuals and families we provide wealth management services do not consider themselves rich or categorized as “high-net-worth” when they should be. So, what does it really mean to be a high-net-worth individual? In today’s blog, we’ll examine what it means to be a high-net-worth individual and explore how far $1 million will last during your retirement years. As an independent, accredited investment fiduciary in New Haven, CT, we specialize in helping high-net-worth individuals create sophisticated retirement plans that set […]
Read More
Date: February 12, 2024
Dotcom Bubble It Ain’t – Anatomy Of a Sale
Lately, I have heard some of the higher profile pundits compare this market to 1999. That is total nonsense and garbage. I am embarrassed for them. Either they are lazy and ignorant. I was there during the lead up to the Dotcom collapse. I vividly remember losing clients in Q4 1999 for not embracing the new paradigm. Client thought I was stupid for owning a bunch of pharma stocks. Next week, I will pull out some charts to compare the […]
Read More
Date: February 9, 2024
But It’s Only 6 Stocks & It Looks Like The Dotcom Bubble
With the plethora of news the markets haven’t really gone anywhere lately. It seems like the world is now obsessed with the supposed narrowness of the rally and everyone has become a top down expert in the area. These kinds of divergences can matter tomorrow or in a year. However, the longer they go on, the worse the punishment will ultimately be. Of course, lack of participation can be fixed by, you guessed it, big participation. Below is a familiar […]
Read More
Date: February 7, 2024
Horrible Market Action BUT BUT BUT Bears Carried Out On a Stretcher
On Friday we saw what I would consider to be a powerful jobs report showing that the economy created more than 350,000 new jobs in January. That was well above the forecast of 185,000. While I am sure someone in pundit got somewhat close, the masses were largely looking for a disappointing report. The “BUT BUT BUT” crowd was out in loud fashion qualifying why this was bunk. And then the political conspiracy crowd was parading around claiming government manipulation. […]
Read More
Date: February 5, 2024
Sell The News, Buy The News, Scratch Your Head On The News
What a week it has been! And I am always happy to be home from the road even though the weather was sunny and pleasant down south. Between the Fed, employment report and earnings from high profile names like Apple, Amazon, Google, Facebook and Microsoft, the markets have had a ton to digest. And with all that news you would think that there would have to have been a big move in the stock market. However, conventional wisdom would be […]
Read More
Date: February 2, 2024
SPECIAL Fed Day Update – Powell Has Cover to Cut
BREAKING NEWS: Fed Leaves Interest Rates Alone – No Change in Balance Sheet Reduction Now you don’t have to wait until 2pm to learn the news that everyone knows already. Powell’s press conference may be a different story. Let’s start with the model for the day which is plus or minus 0.50% for the S&P 500 and then a big move after 2pm. Pre-Powell, that move was higher. Jay hasn’t been as kind to the market as his predecessors. With […]
Read More
Date: January 31, 2024
Huge Week Ahead
Last Friday’s blog, The Ducks Are Quacking – Most Selling I Have Done Since 2022, certainly generated a response. I do enjoy hearing from readers, whether you agree with my thoughts or not. I had to remind people that I am not turning outright negative and we still have a significant amount of “risk on” exposure, especially in our aggressive strategies. However, where we had more than 100% exposure in other strategies or where I saw odd underperformance, I reduced […]
Read More
Date: January 29, 2024
Building Enduring Wealth: Your Guide to Thriving at 100 and Beyond
In today’s world, where medical advancements, healthier lifestyles, and new technologies are extending life expectancies, living to 100 or beyond for one or both spouses isn’t just a possibility—it’s increasingly likely. This begs the all-important question: Have you saved enough to sustain your retirement lifestyle and financial security for 35 years? This is especially relevant if longevity runs in your family. This extended time horizon demands a fresh perspective on retirement planning that goes beyond traditional strategies and embraces the […]
Read More
Date: January 26, 2024
The Ducks Are Quacking – Most Selling I’ve Done Since 2022
There is an old expression in the markets. When the ducks quack, feed them. It means that when investors crave something, give it to them. Those rare times usually fall at market peaks as the masses are not known for good timing. As bad as Merrill Lynch may be at a whole host of business things, I will give them credit for creating all sorts of Dotcom products in 1999 and 2000 to feed the insatiable appetite of investors in […]
Read More
Date: January 26, 2024
Five Smart Money Moves to Make in Your Early 50s
As the saying goes, “There’s no time like the present.” As you approach your early 50s, planning for your retirement should be a high priority, even if your retirement date is ten or more years away. You’re in your prime earning years, so it’s an ideal time to refine your financial strategy to ensure you achieve your goals for a comfortable, secure retirement. While you are beginning to see a glimmer of light at the end of a tunnel, now […]
Read More
Date: January 22, 2024
BUT BUT BUT For The Bears – Not All Rainbows & Unicorns For The Bulls
I hope everyone survived the cold. I got to visit my favorite bagel place on earth, Ess-a-bagel, twice over the weekend as well as meet and chat with one of my favorite Yankees, Al Leiter. The markets start the week at all-time highs. Let that sink in for a while. While the bears have doubled and tripled down this year with the nonsensical, BUT BUT BUTs, the bulls have gone about their business after the brief pullback. The Dow Industrials, […]
Read More
Date: January 22, 2024
Bulls Refuse To Cede Control
The first three days of this holiday shortened week have been interesting in that the headlines and media have been on the negative side, but stocks are trying to push higher to new highs. The S&P 500 is below and you can see that after Thursday it is once again just one good day from that horizontal blue line which is intra-day new highs. Closing new highs is lower at 4794 which may be seen today. The Dow Industrials and […]
Read More
Date: January 19, 2024
Fearless Forecast 2024 Part II – Bonds, Gold, Oil, Bitcoin, Economy, Fed & Election
I am going to continue with my 2024 Fearless Forecast in piecemeal fashion and then post one very long blog for posterity. Fixed Income I don’t think 2024 will be a big year for bonds in either direction. Let’s start right there. Overall, I think they are in a trading range bound by 2023 high and low. If I was forced to offer a scenario for the year, I would say that bonds are weaker earlier in the year and […]
Read More
Date: January 18, 2024
For All The Negative Fanfare, Stocks Remain a Whisker From ATHs
Let’s take a step back and get away from the media’s hyperbole and hysteria regarding the two inflation reports last week. Essentially consumer prices were a little hotter and producer prices were a little cooler. That’s really it in a nutshell. The market was pricing in up to 7 rates cuts in 2024 which I have viewed as insanely absurd. As I mentioned on FOX61 the other day, if the Fed has to cut anywhere near 7 times, we will […]
Read More
Date: January 14, 2024
Fearless Forecast 2024 – Stock Market To Tack On Another 11-15%
I had hoped to communicate my full 2024 Fearless Forecast with a grading of 2023 in one email. That’s not happening. Too much info. So I am sharing the largest portion first, my forecast for the stock market. 12 months ago, I had a lot to say. However, most people could say that about me on any given day. As 2023 began, the masses were universally aligned in the bear camp, the doomsday camp and even the Armageddon camp. Almost […]
Read More
Date: January 10, 2024
Strong Q4 > Weakness in January, But How Much?
Thank you to those who attended our quarterly webinar last night. We covered a lot and I appreciate your time. The archive will be available today and emailed to all those who signed up. My 2024 Fearless Forecast turned out to be a whole lot longer than I anticipated. I know. I know. You’re really shocked. So, I decided to release the equity market portion first and then the rest. If all goes according to plan, you can expect that […]
Read More
Date: January 8, 2024
Santa Did Not Call But Be Careful With Bears Coming to Broad & Wall – Bumpy is The Theme
Greetings from Beantown, one of my favorite cities. I have been traveling for work since 1989 with thousands of trips I guess and I have never forgotten my clothes. That is, until last yesterday. My plan was to head to Vermont from Boston and I have everything I need in Vermont. So as I am scrambling to get on the road with my UCONN napsack, I left the articles of clothing I needed behind. I did manage to bring a […]
Read More
Date: January 5, 2024
