Oil and Energy Diverging
It seems like the energy sector debacle has received very little attention among the mainstream media this year. Even the financial media don’t really care. I am guessing that’s because crude oil has somewhat bucked the bearish trend the stocks have been on as you can see below. Oil has been very volatile and mildly lower. The stocks have been downright ugly. This has been an unusually long period of behavior like this. In the past, the stocks have usually […]
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Date: August 24, 2017
Energy Collapse. An Opportunity?
Stocks continue to bounce after the tensions with North Korea have quieted for now. As I have written about before, I think the stock market used North Korea as its catalyst or excuse to pullback. The underpinnings were a little weak and a little decline was coming regardless. My thoughts remain the same that the pullback is not over and the major indices will need to step it up sooner than later to revisit the old highs. Every now and […]
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Date: August 17, 2017
Bulls Remain Large and in Charge Despite Pullback
We had a lot of negative news between Friday’s market close and Monday’s open, almost all on the geopolitical front with the vast majority surrounding President Trump. Of course, Deutsche Bank finally agreeing with the markets that they needed to raise capital was icing on the cake. In a weak market, that backdrop would have yielded a 1-2% lower opening on Monday. In a strong market, we’re talking about .25-.50% lower. Stocks are due and have been due for a […]
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Date: March 6, 2017
Volatility Genie Trying to Pop Out
After what has been celebrated as this huge, epic rally on Wednesday, the major stock market indices gave back all of their post 9:30am gains and then some on Thursday. I mentioned the other day that volatility compression leads to volatility expansion and vice versa. When the volatility Genie finally gets out of the bottle, we will probably see a sustained increase. I think we’re close to that now. Please remember, volatility does not always mean decline. It means wider […]
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Date: March 3, 2017
Energy Stocks Forecasting Crude Oil Decline
Good morning! As I finish this up, I am back at the airport waiting to board an earlier flight than expected back home. I was hoping to sneak away for a few hours and race through 18 holes, but Mother Nature gave us so much rain that the golf course and driving range were closed. So rather than waste a full day, I booked an earlier flight on the always flexible Southwest Airlines. At the same time, my 8 year […]
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Date: February 28, 2017
Santa Claus Rally Just Around Corner
Big picture. Late October through mid January is the strongest seasonal period to invest in stocks. That’s fact. Over a similar but slightly different period, the semiconductors are the strongest group to invest in. Just since the October bottom, they are up 27% and I am very glad we own them in our sector program. They made up for some crummy positions we have held during the same time. Early December shows some slightly negative seasonal headwinds, like we are […]
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Date: December 10, 2014
