Fed Trend Says Sell but Fedex Gives Thumbs Up
After Thursday’s strength, one of our post-FOMC trading systems gave a sell signal and that calls for weakness over the next 3-5 days. This has a high degree of accuracy, greater than 75%. If stocks rally further on Friday, it will trigger another trend calling for lower prices with a hit rate above 85%. If correct, this should just be a quick and relatively mild bout of weakness that can be bought for another move to new highs on the […]
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Date: September 22, 2016
I Screwed Up
Yesterday, I said that all of our Fed related trends were muted to less than 60% accuracy. That was wrong. One of our best Fed systems said there was a 78% likelihood that stocks rallied. I didn’t realize this until well after 2pm when it was too late to email and take advantage. What a powerful response to the Fed not raising rates and issuing a more hawkish statement, exactly what I and most others predicted. I did find it […]
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Date: September 22, 2016
Yellen Set to Raise Rates, But…
As the Fed’s Open Market Committee meeting heads into day two, our own trends and systems for the trading day are surprisingly mute. Today typically sees stocks trade in a +.50% to -.50% band until 2 pm before the market gets a shot of volatility. Usually, we see a strong upside bias into the close, but the odds of that are under 60% from the usual 75%+. In other words, the edge just isn’t there today. Tomorrow, Friday and early […]
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Date: September 21, 2016
Not so Special, Special Fed Update
Let me begin this special FOMC update by saying that all three very short-term markets trends based on the Fed’s meeting ending today have lower probability of success this week although there may be a sign pointing to lower prices by the end of the week. Stay tuned. Without a crisis like 2008, Janet Yellen & Co. will find it tougher and tougher to discuss an interest rate hike during the heat of the political season. While the Fed is […]
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Date: July 27, 2016
***Special Fed Meeting Update & The Continuous Loss of Credibility and Clue***
Six weeks later and it’s Groundhog Day all over again! Or is that deja vu all over again?!?! It matters not. I began my Fed day comments with this in April. “The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee concludes their two day meeting with an announcement at 2 pm that interest rates will not change today. That’s what the markets are expecting. There has been all kinds of hot air coming from several Fed officials that rates need to rise now, […]
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Date: June 15, 2016
Fed Day Again?!?!
Boy did six weeks fly by! Here we are again. At 2pm we will hear from the Fed that interest rates remain unchanged, but their economic outlook is probably on the positive side. I also expect a comment or two about China and then the laying of groundwork for a possible rate hike six weeks from now. I still do not agree with any rate increase, but it seems like it’s coming. The stock market model for the day is […]
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Date: October 28, 2015
Market Reaction to Fed Announcement
The big lingering question regarding the Fed meeting after the decision is how to properly position portfolios. If you thought it was tough to get an edge on the rate decision, the markets’ reaction is even more so, which is why I would absolutely not advocate making wholesale changes ahead of the announcement. It’s one thing to flip a coin on the decision, but it’s a whole other thing to get the markets’ reaction correct as well. The four possible […]
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Date: September 17, 2015
Fed Statement Day
Once again, the markets have come to the day when the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) releases their statement regarding interest rates and their economic forecast. What to expect? Absolutely nothing on the interest rate front. As I have said before every meeting since rates went to essentially 0%, the Fed is not going to raise rates today. That day will wrongly come sooner than later, but not today. Rather, we will hear about the uneven recovery, wages, trade […]
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Date: July 29, 2015
Fed Statement Day Trend
Once again, the markets have come to the day when the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) releases their statement regarding interest rates and their economic forecast. Today, we also get to hear from Janet Yellen during the post meeting press conference. What to expect? Absolutely nothing on the interest rate front. As I have said before every meeting since rates went to essentially 0%, the Fed is not going to raise rates today. That day will wrongly come sooner […]
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Date: June 17, 2015
