How Tom and Sally Handled Unexpected Calamities With Very Different Results
I’d be hard-pressed to find two more-contrasting high net worth investing strategies than those employed by Tom and Sally (real people, fictitious names). Each faced turbulent markets – Tom at the start of the Great Recession and Sally during the dot.com boom, but their responses were quite different. I think it’s instructive to see what drove them to make their decisions and the outcomes those decisions produced. Tom’s Unsuccessful Strategy Tom, 62, is an intelligent, hard-working New Haven executive, […]
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Date: January 24, 2022
Obama Victory, Market Sell Off
Congratulations to President Barack Obama and all of the politicians who were elected by the American people last night. In the end, although my candidate did not win, Democracy was and is always the big winner. As you know, I hardly ever use the word “hope” when discussing investing, but in this case, I do hope we somehow see congress and the president at least genuinely attempt to work together on a bipartisan basis. I don’t know a single person who […]
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Date: November 7, 2012
New Highs Now or More Weakness First?
In the last Street$marts, I opined that the stock market should see at least another new 2012 high this year, but that we were long overdue for a pullback and a 2-8% decline should begin shortly. So far, all we have seen has been a 3% decline and many folks wonder if new highs are next. I think the healthiest thing would be for stocks to decline below the levels we saw last week and then mount an assault higher. That […]
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Date: October 17, 2012
FOX Business & Employment Report Update
I am going to be on FOX Business’ Markets Now close to 1pm est on Monday, hopefully discussing some of the items below. After a string of weak but positive employment reports, Friday’s data were “better than expected”, but still not strong enough to keep pace with population growth. And when you dive into the details of the report, according to John Williams of Shadow Stats, you see the normal “seasonal adjustments” accounted for a significant number of jobs created. What […]
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Date: August 6, 2012
3 Indicators That Can Tell You the Market’s Next Move
On Monday, I was in the city spending some time with my friends at Yahoo Finance. As always, I thank them for their hospitality and Jeff Macke for the engaging conversation. http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout/3-indicators-tell-market-next-move-115923205.html With the volume and velocity of information out there, trying to get a read on the stock market is like attempting to get a sip of water from a firehose. Thankfully Paul Schatz of Heritage Capital has three ways to check the health of the market and durability […]
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Date: July 5, 2012
Summer Rally, Pre-Election Sell-Off
http://www.newsmax.com/StreetTalk/Heritage-Capital-stock-rally/2012/06/27/id/443591 The stock market will experience a summer rally, followed by a sell-off in the fall right before the election, Paul Schatz, chief investment officer of Heritage Capital LLC, told Yahoo. Schatz said the first half of the year had a few unique twists, but it has been fairly typical for election-year market indices. “It’s been an interesting first half,” he said. “We were vertical for a while and then we gave almost all of it back and now we’re […]
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Date: June 29, 2012
Can You Trust the Experts?
One story related by Peter L. Bernstein in “Against the Gods: the remarkable story of risk” was the experience of Kenneth Joseph Arrow, an American economist and joint winner of the 1972 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics. Some officers had been assigned the task of forecasting weather a month ahead, but Arrow and his statisticians found that their long-range forecasts were no better than numbers pulled out of a hat. The forecasters agreed and asked their superiors to be relieved […]
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Date: June 6, 2012
Stocks Hit with the Ugly Stick
Stocks got hit with the ugly stick on Friday after continued worries in Europe led to overnight weakness and then the market got thumped by the horrid jobs report. Gold and treasury bonds were the only bright spots. Did gold just see “THE” low or “a” low? We will tackle this in an upcoming Street$marts. Stocks should be in the early stages of the bottoming process. It’s too soon to offer how long it lasts, days or weeks. But the market […]
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Date: June 4, 2012
Gold to $2000 and Beyond
Here is the second video I did with the folks from Yahoo! at their beautiful new studio in the city. Anytime there are bold statements on gold, people come out of the woodwork to comment. And I would be surprised if they aren’t at least 100 comments by the time you read this. One of the great myths is that gold goes up when there is inflation. I think the 1990s is the perfect example of why that isn’t true. […]
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Date: April 19, 2012
The Fed, QE and Earnings Season
I had a great time with the folks at Yahoo! yesterday in New York in their brand spanking new studio. We tape three fairly controversial segments and Matt Nesto knew exactly how to bait me just right! Here is the first piece. Enjoy! http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout/move-bernanke-qe3-115057583.html#more-13067 In case you missed it, The House of Mirrors has officially taken the place of The Earnings & Fundamental Palace on Wall Street. I say this at a time when the aspirations and way forward for […]
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Date: April 17, 2012
