Bears Have the Ball
For the past week or so, I have shared some minor stock market concerns, but also opined that it looked like the major stock market indices were going to make new highs for July before any downside was forthcoming. On Tuesday, all five major indices scored new highs for July right at the open ad then steadily eroded those gains throughout the day. All except for the Dow Industrials which continues to establish leadership. The S&P 400 and Russell 2000 […]
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Date: July 25, 2018
Bulls Should Push For One More High. Gold Becoming Interesting
About the only thing of significance from Friday’s action was the increase in volume in stocks going down. That’s a new short-term development. And while my short-term model is negative, stocks still do not have the appearance of anything major on the downside. Moreover, I would not be surprised if the bulls gather themselves and assault the highs one more time before a deeper pullback. Banks and transports have been acting more constructively to take some of the burden off […]
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Date: July 23, 2018
Bulls Won’t Go Down Without a Fight
As I wrote the other day regarding the dramatic reversal in the NASDAQ 100, this bull market is not going to die easily nor without a fight. Even pullbacks and corrections have been and will be tough to come by. As I have seen a few small short-term concerns pop up, I still believe the bulls are going to fight hard to prevent any significant price damage. As I am keenly watching for signs of even a short-term peak, the […]
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Date: July 20, 2018
Technology Reversal. WOW!
After Monday’s close, highflying FAANG stock, Netflix, reported very disappointing subscriber growth. It was a shocker. The company’s stock plummeted after hours, over night, pre-market and as stocks opened Tuesday morning to the tune of 15%. 15%! That’s almost a crash. The tech-laden NASDAQ 100 followed suit and the selling spilled over into the broad market as you would expect. Analyst after analyst and pundit after pundit uniformly poured ice cold water on the technology sector with the most positive […]
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Date: July 18, 2018
Market May Need Some Help from Banks
If you follow me on Twitter, you know I wasn’t enthralled with Friday’s session. While price action in the major stock market indices was strong, more stocks were down on the day than up. Additionally, banks reacted poorly to earnings and high yield bonds closed at their low of the day. Again, it was only one single day, but there was some mild weakness beneath the surface. On the sector front, there isn’t much new. Discretionary is the lone leader […]
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Date: July 16, 2018
Trapped Again. What Do the Bears Do Now???
Following up from the piece earlier this week, Bull Markets Don’t End Like This, the path of least resistance continues to be higher even though the Trump administration added tariffs on another $200 billion in Chinese goods. As you would expect in the most powerful bull markets, the news was just a one or two day pullback/pause after stocks had appreciated 3% over the previous four days. In other words, it was yet another in a long line of bear […]
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Date: July 12, 2018
Bull Markets Don’t End Like This
Over the past week we have seen two decent signs of the low along with two disappointing signs for the bulls. On Thursday, it became clear that the bulls were just teasing the bears and that the path of least resistance was higher. I was also heartened that one of my primary short-term models turned positive before the July 4th holiday. From here, I fully expect the S&P 400, Russell 2000 and NASDAQ 100 to score all-time highs this month. […]
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Date: July 9, 2018
Banks in Trouble
Stocks ended the month of June with the bears showing a tiny bit of teeth during the afternoon as the major stock market indices gave up most of their gains. The multi-week June swoon looks to continue at the open on Monday as more of the Trump tariff tantrum weighs on stocks with Canada now fighting back. Semiconductors also have some negative news and that supports my concern of leadership change from the the NASDAQ 100 to perhaps the value […]
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Date: July 2, 2018
The Low Looks In
In yesterday’s post, I mentioned that the window for a low had just begun to open and that I thought stocks were still on pace to find buyers by the end of next week. The bull seem to have cooperated on the early side of the time range although I am certainly not beating my chest that I called the bottom to the day. Today is month and quarter end so I wouldn’t be surprised to see some “curious” activity, […]
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Date: June 29, 2018
Window Beginning to Open for a Low, BUT…
As I wrote twice this week already, I don’t think the pullback was over just yet. My original thought was it was a 5-7 day affair which has a low in place by next week in the 23,500 to 24,000 range for the Dow. The market is entering that zone now and puts today on watch for a bottom if we can get some early selling to be thwarted by mid-afternoon. While the Dow and S&P 500 continue to be […]
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Date: June 28, 2018
