Anatomy of The Stock Market Crashes of 1929 & 1987. Can It Happen Today?
Today is the 30th anniversary of the stock crash of 1987. All week long there has been a stream of recountings, anecdotes and comparisons to today’s market. While I love nostalgia as much as anyone, there are almost no valid comparisons to 1987 and it’s pretty much a waste of time to take that argument. Writers, analysts and investors who insist that stocks are about to crash like 1987 are either perma-bears who have been wrong for the past 8 […]
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Date: October 19, 2017
More on the Post Crash Pattern… Both Paths are Bullish
The only thing missing from a “perfect” pattern is for the S&P 500 to breach the August lows for up to a few days. I hesitate to use the word “perfect” because it rarely plays out exactly as I expect, but it certainly did so in 2011. Additionally, in both 1987 and 1989 which I partially dismissed, the final lows did not breach the crash lows before the big rally began. As you can see from the chart above, I […]
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Date: October 6, 2015
Follow Up to Post Crash Behavior
Last week, I wrote a piece here and in Street$marts entitled, Post Crash Behavior Leading to Dow 20,000. If you haven’t read it, I think it’s a worthwhile read (of course I do since I wrote it!) whether you agree with the content or not. Subsequently, I was really excited to join CNBC’s Fast Money to discuss my research. A few things I want to add. I used the word “crash” very liberally in my study. After “bubble”, crash is […]
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Date: September 10, 2015
Don the Crash Helmets! It’s Bloody and Ugly Out There!!
By now, everyone knows that the Dow Jones Industrials fell by 1000 points last week, including a 531 point down day to close the week. More selling lies ahead in the short-term. It’s getting ugly. There’s blood in the streets. Sell what you can not what you want. Margin calls are coming. Maximum pain thresholds are being hit for the individual investor. Panic is here! Before I opine on what it means, let’s put it all in perspective. 531 points […]
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Date: August 24, 2015
Stock Market Groping for a Low
If you woke up this morning, turned on the computer or TV and saw another Texas healthcare worker with Ebola, European markets under siege yet again and our own stock market futures in collapse, you probably did not feel so great. Anxiety? Panic? As the morning progressed and our stock market opened, your saw an immediate mini panic with the Dow down 370. At the same time, the 10 year treasury note’s yield absolutely and totally collapsed under 2%. That […]
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Date: October 15, 2014
Who Turned the Lights Out… Again
Yesterday, I wanted to see what leadership emerged after Wednesday’s big surge and more importantly, I wanted definite confirmation from the plan vanilla high yield (junk) bond mutual funds that the canary wasn’t dying. That was before the open. I have to say that the depth and tenaciousness of Thursday’s decline definitely caught me off guard. While giving back 25% or even 50% of the big rally would not have out of the ordinary, losing all of it certainly was. […]
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Date: October 10, 2014
U-G-L-Y Day on Thursday
The stock market had a very rough day on Thursday with all of the major indices breaking down below all short-term support levels for the chartists out there. There is no other way to characterize than UGLY. Keep in mind, however, that so far, all we have seen are 3-6% declines. It feels much worse because we saw two large down days over the past week, the likes of which we haven’t seen all year, including the January pullback. On […]
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Date: April 11, 2014
