Green Shoots for the Bulls After Fed Selloff
As expected by almost everyone, the Fed stood pat on Wednesday. I was shocked to hear some pundits predicted a rate hike. That’s one of the dumbest forecasts I have heard in an awfully long time as the Fed has become almost too transparent and too accommodating to the markets. A rate hike out of nowhere?!?! That made me laugh out loud. Stocks sold off after the announcement for the second straight Fed meeting, in direct contradiction to one of […]
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Date: May 3, 2018
Crosscurrents Abound in May but Fraught with Risk
The month of May begins today. It’s supposed to be spring although you wouldn’t know it in New England on Monday as folks had on hats, gloves and down jackets. The weather is finally looking up in CT as the forecast calls for 70s and 80s this week. I think the bulls are hoping their forecast heats up this week as it’s been cold for stocks of late. As you know from my blog posts since April 18 I have […]
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Date: May 1, 2018
Huge Week Ahead. May 1st VERY Bullish
Stocks begin the new week with the bulls on the optimistic side. Yes, the tariff deadline looms, but we also have the Fed on Wednesday, employment report on Friday and earnings scattered throughout the week. Lots going. Lots of ammunition for the bulls, or so they say. I am not as encouraged for the same reasons I discussed last week and the week before. Lower before higher although I am sure I will feel squeezed if stocks break out to […]
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Date: April 30, 2018
Don’t Let the Bulls Fool You; Bears are in Control
Turnaround Tuesday didn’t work out so well for the bulls, but they did muster up some strength to rally on Wednesday and Thursday. Still, we don’t have a single day where 90% of the volume was in stocks going up. That’s sorely lacking to give the bulls some comfort. Lots of folks were crowing on Thursday about the NASDAQ 100’s regaining leadership with Microsoft, Facebook and Amazon blowing out earnings to the upside. However, let’s not forget that the market […]
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Date: April 27, 2018
Turnaround Tuesday, Semis & 3%
Just a quick comment regarding the short-term state of the market. With the current pullback lasting through Monday, there is a possibility for a rally beginning on Tuesday, also known as Turnaround Tuesday. This scenario is usually more important and prominent when stocks are in the throes of a more significant decline and momentum is strong. We do not have that now. I bring up Turnaround Tuesday not so much because I think stocks are at important bottom, but because […]
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Date: April 24, 2018
Bears in Charge as Bond Yields Rise Again
The bears certainly won the day on Friday to end the week. While stocks did close off the lows with the typical late day buying into the bell, stocks fell back into the equilibrium level we have seen of late. The bears have the upper hand to a small degree. While the transports, banks and discretionary are hanging in nicely for now, semis continue to be under severe pressure. They are now at risk of breaking the April, testing their […]
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Date: April 23, 2018
Bears Starting to Throw In the Towel
Over the past week or so, I have written about some price levels I wanted to see exceeded to turn the picture a little more bullish. Since then, all five major stock market indices have closed above those levels. After that I wrote about the “key” reversal last Friday that had some analysts calling for the end of the bull market. The market immediately rejected that rejection. Then the bears hung their hopes on the “magical” 50 day moving average. […]
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Date: April 18, 2018
“KEY” Reversal and the 50 Day Moving Average Boogeyman
On Friday, the major stock market indices saw yet another “dramatic” reversal as strong early gains were not only given back but also turned into losses during the afternoon before closing off the lows. People who look at charts usually forecast further weakness ahead with some even using the one day pattern to call for the end of the bull market. I think you have to take these kinds of days in context. One day doesn’t end a bull market […]
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Date: April 16, 2018
Bulls Looking Up. The Absurdity of Exact Price Levels.
Yesterday, I wrote about some “key” price levels to watch. I put quotes around it and chuckle because there is some level of absurdity with getting too cute about a given exact price. That’s one of the many flaws of analysis. S&P 500 2675 is “vital” but not 2674 or 2676? Technicians get way too caught up in exact numbers rather than small ranges which makes a whole lot more sense. And remember, the market will always do its best […]
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Date: April 13, 2018
All Time Highs on Tap. A Few Key Prices to Watch
Let me begin by answering a few emails after my last couple of updates. Yes! I continue to believe that fresh all-time highs are ahead for stocks with the Dow hitting at least 27,000 in spite of the increase in pundits calling for the end of the bull market. Stocks seem to be in the second half of the bottoming process, regardless of whether we see Dow 23,000 or a move above 24,700. The major stock indices continue to thrash […]
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Date: April 12, 2018
