Textbook Consolidation Ends
Late last month, I wrote a piece concluding that stocks looked a bit tired at all time highs. Nothing terribly damaging, but they were in need of some rest. Routine, normal and healthy pullbacks can come in different forms. The easiest way for stocks to digest is to decline 2-5% fairly quickly, while another way is to see sideways movement with a slightly downward tilt for a period of weeks. The Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 all saw […]
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Date: September 19, 2014
Headwinds Abound This Week
Almost all markets finished on a sour note last week and that spilled over to begin the new week. While I have written about stocks needing a short-term breather, I was surprised that treasury bonds could not get a lift as stocks weakened. In fact, both stocks and bonds peaked the same week, but bonds sold off more significantly, something that is unusual. The major stock market indices certainly look like they want at least a little rally, but the […]
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Date: September 16, 2014
Don’t Fall Asleep
Over the past few weeks I have written that stocks seem “tired” or “in need of a pullback or consolidation.” Remember, stock market digestion can occur two different ways; one by price declining 2-5% or price simply moves sideways for an extended period. Right now, it looks like we are getting the latter as the S&P 500 has essentially gone nowhere for more than two weeks. While all this boredom was occurring, we had a weak employment report, Russia/Ukraine cease […]
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Date: September 8, 2014
Beware the Ominous September… or not
Each year at this time, we hear the pundits roll out the ominous stats regarding the stock market’s performance for September. “It’s the worst month of the year.” “Be careful.” “Do some selling.” Those sound an awful lot like “Sell in May and Go Away.” The thing about compiling market stats is that over decades and decades the averages tend to really smooth out. Additionally, much depends on when you begin and end your study. Further, if you add enough […]
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Date: September 2, 2014
Stocks Looking a Little Tired
The bull market remains alive and reasonably healthy. I am still long-term bullish. I am still fairly bullish over the intermediate-term. With that out of the way, stocks are looking a little weary at all time highs, which should not be totally unexpected. The market has powered higher all month and started to struggle a bit of late. At least for now, I think risk equals reward or perhaps even slightly outweighs reward. To refresh the rally, stocks can either […]
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Date: August 27, 2014
Bears Take a Breather
Here is the link to the segment I did on Fox Business the other day with Lori Rothman and Adam Shapiro. This pretty much spells out what I have written here regarding my thoughts on the market this quarter. Thanks to Adam and Lori for letting me articulate my forecast. http://video.foxbusiness.com/v/3151668123001/ingredients-for-ending-a-bull-market/#sp=show-clips Stock market action over the past two days gives a glimmer of hope to the bulls for a short-term rally. I do not believe the final bottom is in as […]
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Date: February 6, 2014
Big Correction Coming?
Stocks continue to trade very heavy, but we should be on guard for a strong bounce at any time here. I think the top is in for a while so bounces are now selling opps and a better buy point should be seen after Labor Day. To reiterate what I have said for a while, this pullback should not be the beginning of a new bear market, just another healthy cleanse in an aging bull market. Here is the segment […]
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Date: August 20, 2013
Bull Market to Live On
The stock market continued digesting gains seen from the June 24 to mid July rally. So far, the consolidation has been constructive with the Dow Jones Industrials being the weakest index of the majors. Over the very short-term, the major indices should see a bounce but not exceed the all time highs seen in July. It’s too early to tell whether this will end up being an intermediate-term decline lasting well into September or short lived. One clue will be […]
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Date: August 16, 2013
Oh My! 3 Down Days in a Row!!
Should we break out the crash helmets? The market just went down three straight days! Yes, it was and is stretched, but there isn’t enough internal damage to warrant more than a routine, healthy and normal 3-8% pullback. A much larger correction is coming; it’s just not right now. If and when the major market indices close below the lows from August 7, we should see a deeper bull market pullback. Here were my comments from the interview I did […]
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Date: August 8, 2013
