Fed & Yellen on Hot Seat Today
The Federal Open Market Committee (Fed or FOMC) concludes their two day and final meeting of 2014 on Wednesday with their announcement at 2pm and subsequent press conference with Janet Yellen. Interest rates will not be raised. Market watchers will parse the statement to see if Yellen & Co. remove the “considerable time” phrase for low interest rates from the release, signaling that rates may increase sooner than later. Should those words continue in the statement, I would expect stocks […]
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Date: December 17, 2014
Santa Claus Rally Just Around Corner
Big picture. Late October through mid January is the strongest seasonal period to invest in stocks. That’s fact. Over a similar but slightly different period, the semiconductors are the strongest group to invest in. Just since the October bottom, they are up 27% and I am very glad we own them in our sector program. They made up for some crummy positions we have held during the same time. Early December shows some slightly negative seasonal headwinds, like we are […]
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Date: December 10, 2014
Feel is not Real
I have been playing golf for the better part of of 40+ years and I have taken my fair share of lessons. I can’t tell you how many times I have commented to my teacher that something “doesn’t feel right” or this “feels weird.” And each and every time the response has been the same; “feel is not real.” If you typically walk with a slight hunch, try walking really tall to understand what I mean. It feels funny, but […]
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Date: December 8, 2014
The Greatest Financial Experiment Ever
This article is a follow up to emails I received after my segment on CNBC’s Squawk Box last week regarding the unexpected news from Japan. Here is the link. Japan in Recession… Who Cares Japan has been in the news of late with the unexpectedly poor economic report indicating their economy has fallen back into recession. As I discussed last week on CNBC as well as Yahoo Finance, it really doesn’t matter at this stage. Japan has embarked on the […]
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Date: December 1, 2014
Holiday Tailwind then Headwind for Stocks
Historically, this is a quiet week for the markets with an upward bias. In other words, stocks usually drift higher without much fanfare. The market looks a little tired, but reaction may have to wait until after the country stuffs itself with food, football and fun. To begin the new week after the holiday, stocks usually experience a headwind where mild weakness is seen. Of course, since early 2012 most of the negatives suggested by history have been thrown out […]
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Date: November 25, 2014
Dow 20,000 and How We’ll Get There
My longstanding target of Dow 18,000 is now within a day or two reach if the bulls can muster the energy by Thanksgiving. If not, they may to wait until later in December. As you have read for several years, the bull market is old, but alive and should live on until enough people throw in the towel and stop predicting doom and gloom on every single digit pullback. If and when the Dow closes above 18,000 for a week, […]
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Date: November 21, 2014
Coal Mine Air Still Healthy… Says the Canaries
With stocks soaring to new highs over the past few weeks, it’s a very appropriate time to see how the canaries are faring and if any have died. Remember, the more “dead” canaries, the more likely the bull market will follow suit. This is very long-term analysis and not helpful for much other than end of bull market warnings. Let’s start with the Dow Industrials below and it’s great to see a clear and decisive all-time high right now, coming […]
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Date: November 17, 2014
Even My Bullish Forecast Wasn’t Bullish Enough
Three weeks ago as the stock market was being labeled as “in collapse”, I wrote about the bottom being formed and offered two scenarios for the market to follow. Of course, both scenarios were generally bullish, each ending at new highs, but the length of time varied. Below you can see that same chart updated with market action over the last three weeks. In short, the stock market responded even more bullishly than my very bullish forecast with all time […]
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Date: November 11, 2014
Dow Theory Trend Change… Again
Last week, I wrote an article explaining how traditional Dow Theory worked, at least the way I learned that it worked. In that piece, Dow Theory confirmed a trend change to the negative side. While describing what transpired to give this warning, I also wrote that my own projections for the Dow were to the 18,000 level and I would be surprised if stocks didn’t see all-time highs. After the Japanese caught the markets off guard with their own shock and […]
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Date: November 3, 2014
One Door Closes Another Opens
On Wednesday, to no one’s surprise, Janet Yellen & Co. ended the Fed’s 5+ year experiment of purchasing assets in the treasury and mortgage backed securities market, also known as quantitative easing (QE) or money printing. I won’t rehash all of the reasons why I continue to believe this is a misguided strategy, but it is. Before the ink was even dry on the statement, the Bank of Japan completely caught the markets off guard last night with another ramp […]
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Date: October 31, 2014
