December With a New Party in Power
Last week, we looked at the seasonally strong month of December and what tailwinds were ahead. Recall, that there is also a small headwind which begins now when it blows. Should this soft patch develop, it is usually nothing more than a pause or mild pullback of a few percent lasting up to two weeks. With a change of power in the White House, I went back and checked December performance. Since 1992, the bulls have a perfect record. Keep […]
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Date: December 7, 2020
Does Your Retirement Plan Cover You for Life?
One factor that can complicate your retirement planning is not knowing how many years your retirement will last. While no one can know for sure, if you haven’t considered your realistic life expectancy, you risk shortchanging your later years or even running out of money. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the average length of retirement is 18 years. People retire at age 63 on average, and a general life expectancy is 81 years. That means a typical retirement plan […]
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Date: December 7, 2020
Seasonal Soft Patch, Sector Rotation and the Greenback’s Plunge
As I started to mention the other day, during this time of year we have a very light, seasonal soft patch in stocks that usually begins with the rally moderating, then going sideways and finally pulling back mildly. With momentum so strong right now, we will see shortly if this comes to fruition. The rally has been moderating but that’s been it. Very quietly, we have seen the defensive sectors like REITs, staples and utilities really start to lag as […]
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Date: December 4, 2020
December Seasonally Strong with Soft Patch Coming up to Santa
The last month of the year has begun. Usually at this time of year I comment that I can’t believe how fast the year flew by. However, 2020 hasn’t conformed to any historical norms. It feels like the year that just won’t end. The year that time stood still. December is the second month of the strong seasonal period of November through April. December is also one of the strongest months of the year. Going one step further, December is […]
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Date: December 2, 2020
Seasonal Weakness Today – Big Sea Change Elsewhere
Last Wednesday’s and Friday’s very strong seasonal tendency came in a bit muted, however with such a powerful rally coming into those days, no one can be surprised. Today, there is a strong headwind as the Monday after Thanksgiving always is. It is also the last day of the month where some portfolio games are sometimes seen. Over the past week or so, there has been a subtle shift back into the Fab Five Plus mega cap technology stocks and […]
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Date: November 30, 2020
Strong Seasonal Trend – Market Frothy
I hope everyone had a happy, safe and meaningful Thanksgiving! Today is one of those abbreviated trading sessions where many market participants often skip. While I would rather be skiing if I am being honest, my recovery is preventing that so off to the office it is. The Friday after Thanksgiving has a very bullish seasonal edge, even stronger than the Wednesday before which did not work out. Next Monday has a strong headwind so super short-term traders might be […]
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Date: November 27, 2020
Seasonal Trends Cranking Up
There has been so much written about the strong seasonal trends this week, specifically Wednesday and Friday. They are historically strong days, followed by next Monday being seasonally weak. The details do not matter. However, let’s remember that stocks have been in rally mode since October 30 with barely a whiff of weakness. Don’t be surprised if some or much of the seasonal tailwind dissipates. And while on the topic of positive tailwinds, we know the period from November through […]
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Date: November 25, 2020
Yellen the Safe Pick – Brainard not Far Behind
Joe Biden et al leaked that Janet Yellen will become his Treasury chief. Lost in the celebration of her becoming the first female to do this is that she that Wall Street absolutely loves the pick. I suspect a whole more than the progressive wing of the Democrats. Yellen is a known quantity and least concerning about upsetting the apple cart. Let’s not also forget that she should sail through a red or blue Senate for confirmation. Biden knows her […]
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Date: November 24, 2020
Sentiment Giddy
Last week, I listed a number of reasons why the stock market was on a solid foundation. Today, I want to counter that and offer concerns on the sentiment side of the equation. Remember, in the past two updates I described a tug o’ war or dichotomy. Below is a chart which shows the weekly bull/bear poll from the American Association of Individual Investors. Last week you can see in green there were more than 50% bulls while the bear […]
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Date: November 23, 2020
Stock Market’s Foundation is Rock Solid
As I mentioned the other day, stocks haven’t soared beyond their Pfizer Monday highs like most people “feel”. In fact, the opening from two Mondays ago turned out to be a pretty good selling opportunity in real time and in hindsight although I do not see this as a peak of any significance. There are two points of view now and both may end up being right. I briefly touched on the fact that market sentiment has become on the […]
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Date: November 19, 2020
