All Time Highs on Tap. A Few Key Prices to Watch
Let me begin by answering a few emails after my last couple of updates. Yes! I continue to believe that fresh all-time highs are ahead for stocks with the Dow hitting at least 27,000 in spite of the increase in pundits calling for the end of the bull market. Stocks seem to be in the second half of the bottoming process, regardless of whether we see Dow 23,000 or a move above 24,700. The major stock indices continue to thrash […]
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Date: April 12, 2018
Volatility Still Elevated. No All Clear Yet
So Paul, (yes, I am speaking in the annoying third person and I hate it too), it seems like every day there is a dizzying array of news and events. 500 points up, 400 points down, 300 up, 400 down. Employment report. Tariffs. New technology regulations. And earnings season is about to begin. Volatility remains elevated as has been the theme all year. Three times, Dow 23,500 has been visited and all three times buyers stepped in the thwart off […]
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Date: April 8, 2018
Major Reversal Puts Ball in Bulls’ Court
Stocks saw a very large reversal on Wednesday from being down 500 points to closing up more than 200 points. That would have been absolutely textbook if the price lows were below the lowest level of the correction which occurred on Monday or February 9th, depending on which index you look at. Technically, the price behavior has satisfied all that is needed to end the correction and begin an intermediate-term rally. However, I am not 100% convinced just yet. First, […]
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Date: April 5, 2018
Trump Tariff Tantrum & 200 Day Moving Average
We woke up today with more of the Trump Tariff Tantrum. This time, China responded as everyone thought they would, but the markets reacted much worse with the Dow looking to be down 600 points at the open. I am much, much more concerned about where stocks close today rather than where they open. To wrap up this decline, I would either want to see a 1000 point down day or afternoon strength today. As I continue to write, tariffs […]
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Date: April 4, 2018
Stocks are “Supposed” to Bounce
This is going to be a short update as my car has a safety recall and I am late to drop it off. While I was on the look out for a 1000 down day to get the market to the end of the decline and middle of the bottoming process, the bulls jumped when the Dow was down 700+ on Monday and thwarted that attempt. I really wanted to see a full WOOSH lower that ended the day really […]
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Date: April 3, 2018
Bottoming Process Continues with Decreasing Momentum
Last week, I wrote about stocks entering the bottoming process. After a decline of 1100 points in the Dow, there was a possibility that the correction which began on January 26 was ending. The only thing I did not want to see was a large up opening with stocks rallying all day. Well, that’s exactly what happened last Monday. It just prolongs the inevitable. I still believe that there is a good chance of seeing a 1000 point down day, […]
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Date: April 2, 2018
In the Throes of the Bottoming Process
1100 point decline to end the week certainly makes people pay attention. It still feels like yesterday (or late January) when all the talk was about a year long stock market melt up.Tax reform, 700+ regulations killed, GDP accelerating. All paths led higher. Almost every day, Donald Trump celebrated fresh all-time highs and used the stock market as his report card. Oh, the good ole days! As I wrote about last week, I don’t believe it’s about Facebook or Trump’s […]
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Date: March 26, 2018
What Happened to the Stock Market Melt Up?
700+ points of Dow decline on Thursday surely did change sentiment quickly. And while stock market bottoms do occur on Fridays (13% of the time), contrary to popular belief, the final low is unlikely to be today. Earlier this week, I discussed how all three of my offered scenarios were breaking down as they all eventually do, I thought the Dow would go check out 24,200 but likely head all the way down towards 23,000 which is below the lows […]
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Date: March 23, 2018
***SPECIAL Fed Update – Rates Are Going Up Again & Then Some***
Stock Market Behavior Models for the Day As with every Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement day, there is a model for the stock market to follow pre and post announcement. Certain environments have very strong tendencies while others do not. Over the past few meetings, many of the strongest trends muted although the system that said to sell on the close of the meeting hit a home run. The S&P immediately crashed from 2824 to 2645 or 6% during […]
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Date: March 21, 2018
Scenarios Breaking Down
For the past 6 weeks, I have offered what has now amounted to three plausible scenarios for where stocks are headed over the coming three to four months. While the short-term ups and downs varied, all paths from my perspective ended up at new highs for the major stock market indices. Nothing has changed in this regard and I continue to expect Dow 27,000 by the end of Q2 (June 30). As with almost every single market analog, eventually, they […]
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Date: March 20, 2018
