The markets start the new week with the Dow Industrials having been down 8 straight weeks, the most since 1923 if you believe the old data are correct. This stat has been posted all over social media. It’s just stating the obvious. The stock market has been in one of the most relentless selling waves of all-time. That’s inarguable fact and obvious to anyone with skin in the game. But it’s still not easy to live through. My question for […]
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The bulls made several stands on Thursday after a total drubbing on Wednesday. And as the all-important 3pm hour started it looked as if the bulls were going to make some noise and eat into the big losses from the day before. But that wasn’t to be, leaving stocks vulnerable into the weekend. Again, the bears need to immediately progress to new lows across the board with conviction to have short-term impact. That’s not the most likely scenario. If stocks […]
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Note to self. Don’t go to the eye doctor first thing in the morning and expect to get work done before lunch with dilated pupils. Wednesday’s stock market decline seems to have really stirred the bears, more so than any one single day this year. Yes, the magnitude was four digits which usually gets people going, but almost nothing scored a new low. Not the Dow Industrials, S&P 500, S&P 400, Russell 2000 nor NASDAQ 100. Only consumer discretionary did […]
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My last two posts last week were essentially taking lemons and turning them into lemonade. By the way I absolutely love lemonade, especially fresh and naturally flavored ones. Strawberry, blueberry, raspberry. Sign me up! Anyway, I started to see the making of a low last week and the first nail was hammered in on Thursday with confirmation on Friday. That was one of the nastiest and longest selling waves of the modern investing era. And I am assuming that it […]
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What a long week it has been. What a long month it has been. What a long year it has been. Can we start over? Markets continue to be super volatile and that’s expected at the end of massive selling waves which this turned out to be. Remember, a snowball is biggest the secondĀ before it hit the bottom. Through Thursday this wave has lasted 31 days which puts it in rarefied air. We usually see selling waves last 18-25 […]
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The government released CPI today and it came in .2% hotter than expected. Pre-market trading saw an immediate plunge in the equity markets. Early morning trading shows moves in both directions so we will need to see how everything settles out at 4pm. It will be a huge win for the bulls to close mildly lower today and more of the same for the bears with another route. The stock market has been really ugly and I have certainly been […]
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Monday was an ugly day coming after ugly days on Thursday and Friday. This is what the end of nasty selling waves look like. Monday was the third day in the last few weeks where 90% of the volume was trading in stocks that went down. That is widespread and pervasive selling of the indiscriminate variety. For sure, an entity or two were being forced to liquidate. I heard rumors last week about a major asset allocation shift using ETFs. […]
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Good Monday Morning. The weather may finally turn nice in New England, but the markets begin the new week in the same crummy mood as last week and the week before that. And the story remains the same. Higher interest rates. Less confidence in the Fed. Inflation. The correction has been sharp and swift and painful with few places to hide. What different about this one is that the bond market’s decline has much worse on a relative basis. Bonds […]
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What a week it has been! And there is still one day left although I will go out on a limb and say that Friday will look nothing like Wednesday or Thursday. On Wednesday the Fed raised rates by 1/2%, something everyone knew was coming. In my special Fed piece, I said that we would see a juiced post-2pm rally because of the selloff leading up to the meeting. Juiced was an understatement. Stocks soared in the last two hours […]
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The model for today is plus or minus 0.50% until 2pm and then a rally. Given the correction there is extra juice behind the model for post 2pm. Stocks are supposed to rally and I will add the word “strongly”. Today is the Fed day everyone has been waiting for. The day the Fed finally takes real action to combat inflation and slow down an economy that shrunk by 1.4% in Q1. Yes. You read that right. Jay Powell & […]
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