Face Ripping Rally
On Wednesday before the government released the first of two inflation reports I wrote If I am Wrong the Rally Has Ended. I try to be crystal clear on my thesis. I wrote that “I do not believe the rally has ended…” There was no wavering. But I always try recognize how and when I could be wrong. I was surprised at the number of emails asking me why I thought the rally was over. I never said I thought […]
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Date: August 12, 2022
If I am Wrong the Rally Has Ended
The stock market as measured by the S&P 500 has basically gone nowhere in 7 trading sessions. Bulls say it is a sign of strength that all the negative headlines have been unable to shake the market lower. Bears looks at that dark blue horizontal line below and conclude that stocks failed to close above it and are now vulnerable. Although I do not believe the rally from the June 17th bottom is over, I am certainly aware of a […]
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Date: August 10, 2022
Heading to the Hamptons – No Recession There
For you golf fans out there, if you didn’t catch Nick Faldo’s retirement from a second successful career, it’s one for the ages. Watch here. And so we start a new week with the dog days of summer still crushing New England and much of the country. I cannot get over how long we have had hazy, hot and humid days in CT. This isn’t the southeast where people are used to it. And if you’re keeping score at home, […]
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Date: August 8, 2022
***Q2 Client Update***
Many people like to read my very “brief” quarterly client update which I select excerpts. If you’re one of them, please read on. If not, feel free to stop now. Always happy to hear comments and questions. Let’s dive right in, be upfront and recognize that Q2 was a very challenging quarter in almost every asset class and across the spectrum with poor performance at a level not seen since Q1 2020. In fact, although the stock market did not […]
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Date: August 5, 2022
High Yield Bonds Join The Party – FINALLY!
Until the last few weeks, I had been complaining about high yield’s lack of enthusiasm off the June lows. The sector had looked like death. I am sure part my bemoaning was that the fact that we have been legging into the high yield sector since June to get fully fully invested. Below I show you two different ways to view junk bonds, through an ETF and a mutual fund, let me also say that because these bonds pay high […]
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Date: August 3, 2022
Dog Days of August
I can’t believe it’s already August. I am not ready for the countdown to end summer, even though ski season may only be 100 or so days away. I like wearing shorts, tee shirts and flip flops. Where has the year gone? Can we slow down a bit? July’s market action was a whole lot more fun for the bulls than June, May, April, etc. The S&P 500 was up more than 9% and the bond market rallied by 2.5%. […]
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Date: August 1, 2022
Recession?!?! – NOT
Let’s start with my conclusion. The U.S. is not in recession as I think I have stated every month this year. Yes, I know the government just released its first look at Q2 GDP and it was negative for the second straight quarter. And if you consult Webster’s dictionary, that’s the definition of recession. But since when is Webster the end all be all arbiter? Lots of pundits believe the U.S. is already in recession. I have not been among […]
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Date: July 29, 2022
***SPECIAL Fed Update – Pivot on the Way, No Recession Yet***
Let’s start with the market info of the day. It’s Fed announcement day and the market usually trades plus or minus 0.50% until 2pm and then volatility expands and we get a big move, usually to the upside. With the pre-market strong, much work looks to already be done. Because the last two days were weak that strengthened the trend today to a large degree and on Twitter you saw the additional positions taken. Jay Powell and the rest of […]
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Date: July 27, 2022
Dizzying Week Ahead
With the biggest earnings week of the season including Amazon, Apple, Facebook, Microsoft and UPS, the FOMC announcement on Wednesday and first look at Q2 GDP on Thursday, this is going to be a super busy week. Heading into the weekend, S&P 4000 or so looked to be a logical pause point for the stock market as I wrote here. Stocks have had a nice bounce off the June bottom and a breather will not be the worst thing in […]
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Date: July 25, 2022
Bulls Firmly in Control But 4000 Should Start Pause
The stock market is having a good week. The nasty reversal on Monday didn’t even give the bears satisfaction for 24 hours. It turned out to be a trap and stocks immediately soared higher again. Below is an update of the chart I posted last week with price filling in for where I had my light blue lines to generally forecast the next few weeks. S&P 4000 is within reach and that would fill the remaining gap left from the […]
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Date: July 22, 2022
