Corona Crash Continues. We WILL Get to the Other Side.
I wrote an update for yesterday, but I ended up hitting “save” instead of post and just realized it. Sorry about that. As I was emailing with a friend about analyzing what’s going, I said that short-term forecasts could literally be wrong before the ink dries on the paper. That’s how fast things are moving. I don’t want to jinx this (Lord knows we don’t need more problems), but I have been incredibly impressed that the electronic financial system seems […]
Read More
Date: March 17, 2020
No Adjectives to Describe. Generational?
The collapse in the financial markets this week has certainly been historic and epic. It has been on par with the moves we saw in 2008 and 1987 in terms of underlying carnage. The difference here is that it started from an all-time high only one month ago, something that we have never seen before in history. It also began without the usual crumbling foundation of the stock market, something I will write about next week. After Thursday’s whopping decline, […]
Read More
Date: March 13, 2020
A Decline for the Ages – Turnaround Tuesday Possible
Seeing the Dow Industrials lose 2000 points in a single day was something that wasn’t even on my worst case radar as recently as last month. But as we have seen many times this century with the advent and domination of computerized trading, things change at warp speed. Declines that used to take weeks, months and even quarters to unfold and complete are now compressed into days and weeks. Risk no longer slowly builds; it happens all at once. I […]
Read More
Date: March 10, 2020
UGLY Open Ahead
Stocks are set to plummet at the open as crude oil collapsed overnight. The revisiting of the February 28 low is here and we need to see if divergences develop to indicate a successful retest and the next step in the bottoming process. Trading today and over the next few days is going to be frenetic. I imagine enormous intra-day moves with many bouts of panic selling and margin calls. This correction continues to set precedents for its speed and […]
Read More
Date: March 9, 2020
Internal Bottom, More Downside Left, Dow 30K and Powell’s Blunder
On Monday, I spent a good deal of time publishing 9th Correction of the Bull Market – Dow 30,000 Coming in Q3. I think I did a pretty good job of putting the correction into proper context against the 8 other corrections during this bull market. So far, last Friday certainly has all the makings of the internal or momentum low I usually discuss during corrections. I will spare you and not post a deluge of charts, but here are […]
Read More
Date: March 4, 2020
9th Correction of the Bull Market – Dow 30,000 Coming in Q3
Before I begin the update as planned, I want to repeat what I have said to folks who have called and emailed. I think the bull market remains alive. I think Dow 30,000 will be hit during the summer. That anticipated rally may be the one that signals a new bear market. I think this week will be up for the stock market. It is quite possible that Friday’s low was the internal or momentum low from which the first […]
Read More
Date: March 2, 2020
Coronavirus & Stock Market Playbook
As I mentioned the other day, I have been reading an incredible amount, just like many of you, about the Coronavirus. I even pestered a relative at the CDC as well as my friend who runs a research lab at Yale for their opinions. Interestingly, the professionals are a whole lot less alarmed than the masses. The two I annoyed both texted me science articles of why Corona is just another in a long line of bad viruses to be […]
Read More
Date: February 27, 2020
Putting 1000 Points into Perspective & Selling Gold
Stocks are set for a feeble bounce at the open today after a 1000 point drubbing to begin the new week. 1000 Dow points today equals roughly 3.5%. While Monday was the third largest point decline in history, it only ranked as 254th of all declines since 1896 according to my friend Ryan Detrick from LPL. Since 1950 there have been 103 3%+ declines in the stock market.The crash of 1987 was 22.5% in one day. Today, that would have […]
Read More
Date: February 25, 2020
AH HA! The Gap of Recognition? Corona Crash
Global stock markets are red and very ugly as the Coronavirus has been spreading to European countries like Italy. I think the problem is that the markets don’t know what they don’t know. In other words, there is a world of uncertainty out there and that’s unlikely to change anytime soon. As I wrote last week, the market doesn’t care until it cares and then it really cares. Over the past two months, I have repeatedly written about bullish sentiment […]
Read More
Date: February 24, 2020
Coronavirus Back on Top. Japanese Yen Causing Dislocations.
Stocks had been trading pretty much immune to the daily headlines regarding Corona even though everyone had known there would be economic impact. It’s like everything else in the markets. It doesn’t matter until it matters and then it matters in a huge way. That was best seen in 2005, 2006 and 2007 with the financial crisis. Don’t misunderstand; I am not saying that Corona is anything like the financial crisis. On Thursday and at least the morning on Friday, […]
Read More
Date: February 21, 2020
