Crickets and BUT BUT BUT from the Bears
Well, the Fed cut rates as expected. Powell said they are moving to neutral or pause mode, as expected. Stocks generally liked what they heard and closed near the highs for the day. Semis have struggled a bit over the past few days but I am not concerned in the least just yet. I think they have a chance to really soar into year-end. This morning, the employment report came in better than expected as well as seeing upward revisions […]
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Date: November 1, 2019
Fed to Cut Rates, Indicate Pause & Move to Neutral
What to Expect Today The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is going to cut interest rates by another 1/4% at 2:00pm on Wednesday. The market is expecting it and the cut has already been priced in. Any other action would be a shocker. With stocks essentially at to all-time highs, this continues to be reminiscent of 1995 when the Fed came from an overly restrictive monetary policy in 1994 to realizing they screwed up and quickly played catch up. Stocks […]
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Date: October 30, 2019
All-Time Highs Are Here. WHO KNEW?!?!
The S&P 500 is poised to open at fresh, all-time highs this morning. Absolutely none of my readers should be the least bit surprised. I have written about it every single week this entire year. And the stock market isn’t done. I have made fun of and called out the bears every step of the way to outcries of “BUT, BUT, BUT” whenever presented with facts. They hate. They disavow. They call for the end of the world. They have […]
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Date: October 28, 2019
Stock Market Quiet. Earnings Volatile. Semis Getting Ready to Soar
Greetings from Baltimore where I am doing a quick one night trip to visit with some clients and an old friend and former colleague. As always, there is great food and wine. If all goes well and Southwest delivers, I should be home for Blue Bloods tonight and get a good night’s sleep for our final weekend of baseball and softball. Stocks continue to trade very quietly this week, despite some wicked moves in individual stocks from earnings announcements. Twitter, […]
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Date: October 25, 2019
Lots of Negativity But Stocks Close to Blue Skies
Stocks begin the new week with the Dow Industrials masking the overall strength of the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100. Remember, the Dow only has 30 stocks and they are weighted by price. So, high prices stocks move the index a lot more than mid or lower priced ones. Boeing has been hit with the ugly stick for 40+ points over the past two days which equates to roughly 280 Dow points. While the Dow has stalled out with a […]
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Date: October 21, 2019
Junk Bonds & the A/D Line Say All is Okay
From open to close, stocks have traded in a narrow range most of this week and around the same level each day except for Tuesday. As the old highs in the Dow Industrials, S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 have come into reach, investors are pausing as they usually do to assess risk and reward. While I do not think it’s a layup for a breakout right here, I feel very confident that Dow 28,000 will be kissed this quarter with […]
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Date: October 18, 2019
Deal? What Deal???
I am sure I am not the only one who is really skeptical about this “trade deal” with China being real. While I am sure the two parties agreed on some items, we are so far from a real deal, signed, sealed and delivered. This doesn’t even sound like an agreement in principle since the Chinese have a different recollection and their state run news service tells their own story. This saga is far from over. The stock market was […]
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Date: October 14, 2019
Bears Wrong, Again?
On Monday, I wrote about the bulls thwarting the bears with another low forming in the stock market. I also showed some of the fuel that was building up for higher prices in the form of very negative options traders who are usually wrong. Couple that with my Twitter feed turning negative and the bears ostracizing my bullish view, I felt pretty good that stocks would rally. And rally they have in short order, catching the masses off guard. I […]
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Date: October 11, 2019
Bulls Thwart Bears With Another Low
Last Wednesday as stocks had pulled back to the lower end of the recent trading range, I thought we were about to see a showdown between the bulls and the bears. That battle was fought one day later as an early morning mini-collapse triggered by a poor manufacturing number flushed out the sellers and allowed the bulls to come roaring back the rest of the day with a beautiful intra-day reversal. On Friday, the bulls added to those gains and […]
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Date: October 7, 2019
The Truth About October
With Rosh Hashanah taking me out of the office for two days, I forgot to offer some stats as the sometimes nasty month of October begins. I cannot recall who first alerted me to the breakdown I am about to show so I will just say thanks to my usual cadre of characters whose work I value and respect. Rob Hanna, Ari Wald, Jason Goepfert and Tom McClellan. Overall, October has been better known for stock market bottoms than any […]
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Date: October 3, 2019
