Change in Character. Opportunity for the Bears
Earlier in the week, I offered that very short-term, nimble traders could sell the rally as stocks were beginning to look a little tired. I stick by that and still believe that’s a good strategy. Since then, several of our models have started to turn negative which changed my tone to be more defensive and less “risk on”. I think that will likely be the case into Q3 although that’s purely a guess. Of course, I could be wrong and […]
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Date: June 12, 2019
Sell the Rally? Mexico, Mega Mergers and Meat
The markets start the new week with an absolute cornucopia of news. We have mega mergers, Mexico, meat and employment. Obviously, the most important news comes as no surprise to anyone; the deal with Mexico to avoid the first in a series of tariffs on Mexican goods in response to the border and immigration. Stocks rallied sharply last week with an expected deal with Mexico as a significant contributor. The weaker than expected employment report on Friday was greeted with […]
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Date: June 10, 2019
Stocks Bottom on Schedule Catching Most By Surprise
For the last two weeks, I have written about the bottom I saw coming and how I would favor stocks over bonds. I didn’t write about a 10%+ correction nor a bear market beginning. I was very clear that I thought the stock market was experiencing a routine, normal and healthy bull market pullback that began on May 1 after the last Fed meeting. On May 13 as many of our short-term indicators signaled that the vast majority of the […]
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Date: June 7, 2019
Volatility to Continue But Bull Market Remains Alive
Last Thursday night, I wrote a quick piece about the latest tariff tantrum from the President. Early indications were that the stock market was looking at a very ugly opening on Friday. Bears were hoping for an all-out rout, but I wasn’t sensing that. In the end, most of the major indices closed slightly lower than they opened, meaning that not much transpired during market hours. As we start the new week, I would expect the bears to make some […]
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Date: June 3, 2019
Here We Go Again. A Fresh Tantrum
As you know I have been waiting for a better set up for the stock market to find a low. Specifically, as I mentioned the other day, I wanted to see more downside early in the day which led to a close that wasn’t in the bottom of the range. That would serve as a revisiting of the May 13 low. We saw that did happen on Wednesday and it should have at least stemmed the tide. However, as has […]
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Date: May 30, 2019
Back in the Saddle. Bottom Getting Closer
Let me start by apologizing for going dark last week. I had a little accident with a tree and the tree won. I ended up in the hospital and just focused my work efforts on running our strategies and not doing any writing. And after not publishing last week, not much has changed from where I left off in the markets. I was in the short-term pullback camp after the May 1 peak, but it looked like much of the […]
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Date: May 28, 2019
Tweet Watch Again
Although our models were flashing numerous green lights at the close on Monday, I wasn’t convinced that the final low was in. And nothing this week has made me feel any more comfortable. I am definitely not concerned about meaningful decline in the stock market, just that the 5% pullback doesn’t seem complete. Of course, you could push back and say that I am being too cute with such a relatively small decline and you would be right. What bothers […]
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Date: May 17, 2019
THE Bottom or A Bottom? Banks Looking Good
After Monday’s mauling by the bears the losses mounted to roughly 5% and was pretty much in straight line fashion since the May 1 FOMC meeting. In other words, for all the fire and brimstone by the bears, all we have see, so far, has been a normal, routine and what I will call “healthy” single digit, bull market pullback. Very little internal damage has been done. The Dow Industrials said hello to its long-term trend, the average price of […]
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Date: May 15, 2019
Tariff Tantrum Continues
The markets’ tariff tiff/tantrum is now a full blown tantrum. “I don’t want tariffs! I don’t want tariffs! I don’t want tariffs!” The truth is, as I wrote about before, the markets were setting up to pause, digest or even pullback modestly after the Fed meeting on May 1. They were just looking for that excuse which came in a big way over the past week or so. After another big down opening, stocks are continuing to slide lower, the […]
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Date: May 13, 2019
Pullback Continues? All Eyes on Twitter. REALLY???
Lots of intra-day movement this week after stocks peaked on May 1 when the Fed concluded their two-day meeting. After 30 years in the business, I keep saying that few things surprise me anymore, but I have to say that watching traders and market participants glued to Twitter for any sign of tariff walk back by the president is certainly a first for me. I can’t imagine what the great investors of yesteryear are thinking as they down on us […]
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Date: May 9, 2019
